Bundesliga Trading Focus: Fri 24th-Sun 26th Aug 2018

Bundesliga Free Football Trading Tips


Bayern Munich first the rest nowhere is what the bookies would have us believe for the upcoming 2018/19 Bundesliga Season and it is the same for second place with Borussia Dortmund streets ahead of the rest according to the odds. It is very difficult to argue that those odds are wrong with the two squads clearly much stronger than the rest so unless you like to get involved with short priced favourites, we need to look at other markets for any Ante Post interest. The market betting without both Bayern and Dortmund is interesting but at the moment not very strong and priced up by two bookmakers only. I do not agree with their favourites being Leverkusen and that offers us an opportunity with Leipzig, Schalke and Hoffenheim all having outstanding chances. At the odds available, 7/1 (8.00) on Hoffenheim looks over priced to me especially as the manager Nagelsmann is in his last season and has gone on record as saying they will be going all out to win everything before he moves to Leipzig. If you can get the 7/1 it is certainly worth a little interest, if not then odds of around 3/1 for a top four finish could also pay dividends. The relegation battle is wide open, and it would be difficult to back anyone to be relegated with any confidence. As that is the case we can look for some value with the obvious starting point being the two promoted clubs, Dusseldorf and Nurnberg. Both will struggle, and a lot will come down to home form but odds of 8/11 and Evs respectively do not appeal as value although neither have played at this level for the last four years and it could take them a while to adapt. Of the two I think Dusseldorf have the best chance of surviving. Hannover have had a decent pre-season and do well at home and if Mainz and Freiburg can find some goals, then they should be fine too. The one side who look a little over priced are Wolfsburg who only survived by the play-offs last season and are available at 8/1. They have signed forward Wout Weghorst from Dutch football and they will need his goals, particularly at home, to have a chance of avoiding a relegation battle. He will find this level of football different to the Eredivisie and their chances will depend on how quickly he settles in. At 8/1 a small interest could pay dividends.


Friday 24th August

Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim

The traditional German curtain raiser where last year’s Champions play in the first match of the season and Bayern will be a banker for many people. For most of the season it will be impossible to take on Bayern as they are so strong, particularly at home but every so often there is a stat that gives us hope that we can take them on. Hoffenheim have a decent record against the champions in recent seasons particularly at home but they have managed two draws on their last five visits to Munich which is more than most teams have done. Bayern were impressive last week when thumping Frankfurt in the Super Cup and totally dominated the game and the manner of the victory suggested that this will be a very tough season for the other sides. Hoffenheim have had a good pre-season, albeit against teams they should have beaten, and they also had a confidence boosting victory in the German Cup last week winning 6-1. Trying to get an angle on the game is difficult, Bayern should win and there really should be goals, but 1.91 for Over 3.5 goals does not appeal as good value. Hoffenheim on the handicap, +2 goals is available at 2.10 but again it is not huge value as Bayern could easily win by two goals making the bet a loser. Hoffenheim have scored in five of the last six head to head which brings in both teams to score at around 1.80 and that looks like the best play to small stakes.

Saturday 25th August

Wolfsburg v Schalke 

Schalke have won four and drawn one of the last five meetings today and have won three and drawn one of their last four visits to Wolfsburg. If we keep this simple we must bet Schalke at the prices at around 2.30 so what are we missing? It looks like the bookmakers believe they will be weaker with the loss of defender Kehrer to PSG, but they have replaced him with two solid signings in Serdar and Mascarell and have money in the bank. I think we have to take the odds on offer and hope that Schalke pick up exactly where they left off last season, undefeated in eleven of their last twelve.

Werder Bremen v Hannover

A game that must surely have goals if past stats are anything to go by with six of the last eight meetings today going Over 2.5 goals including the last five in Bremen. As it is the first game of the season we will keep it simple and take the 1.80 for Over 2.5 goals.

Borussia M’gladbach v Bayer Leverkusen

Another game where it may pay to keep it simple especially this early in the season. I think that Gladbach are a little over priced as they have won three of the last four head to head at home, but a safer option is Over 2.5 goals again as all four of those games were Over as were six of the last seven meetings today overall and the 1.70 on offer is a fair price. If you like a little more risk, consider a small Lay of Leverkusen around 2.50.

Sunday 26th August

Mainz v Stuttgart

Stuttgart ended the season with four victories including winning at Bayern and finished in a creditable seventh place. If they carry on with that form at the start of the season they will be tough to beat here but Mainz had a decent pre-season and will be tough to beat at home. Recent head to head in Mainz have seen two home wins and two draws whilst Mainz have also won on two of their last four visits to Stuttgart. Mainz are half tempting at 2.75 but a safer option may be to Lay Stuttgart at around 2.70 keeping the draw on side.

One thing to remember is that this is a trading website and if you can trade out for a decent profit at any time then that is what we advise. If we get two early goals and we have done Over 2.5 goals and we can take a nice profit then that is an angle.

With two weeks left in the German season, there is still a lot to play for. Apart from a few sides in mid-table the only things settled are that Bayern are champions and Koln are relegated and by coincidence they meet this week. We need to concentrate on three fixtures that give us a chance to make a profit. Although there is no Champions League advantage to finishing second, as all four qualifiers now go straight to the group stage, and the breakdown in prizemoney does not vary much, it is still prestigious to finish second and both Dortmund and Schalke will be going all out for that position. The fourth Champions League place is up for grabs between Hoffenheim and Leverkusen with the latter having the slightly easier final two games.


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