Bundesliga Trading Focus Stats Update
Once again, the Bundesliga away wins were in focus on Saturday with three of the five games going to the visitors. On Sunday we had one home win and one away win for two short priced favourites.
Friday 5th June 2020
Freiburg v Moenchengladbach
In the last seven head to head, five were Over 2.5 goals. In Freiburg, the games ended 3-1, 1-0 and 3-1, not the happiest hunting ground for Gladbach, but they come here off the back of a good win against Union and Freiburg were beaten by Leverkusen. Both teams have scored in the last four head to head. Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 is a trading angle as there looks sure to be goals.
Freiburg 52% Over 2.5 goals 31% Over 3.5 goals
Moenchengladbach 69% Over 2.5 goals 45% Over 3.5 goals
Since resuming, Freiburg have drawn two and lost two. Gladbach have won two and drawn one of their four games. Three of the four Gladbach games were Over 2.5 goals, Freiburg had three Under 2.5 goals.
Saturday 6th June 2020
Frankfurt v Mainz
Eight of the last ten head to head were Over 2.5 goals including four of the last five in Frankfurt. Mainz won 2-0 on their last visit to Frankfurt but had lost the previous three. There have been two draws in the last ten head to head. Frankfurt have won only two of their last eight at home. But did grab a late winner at Wolfsburg last week. Frankfurt should win at home, but even though Mainz are poor, Frankfurt at slight odds on is not for the faint hearted. Probably safer to go with goals, although 1.61 will not get you rich, so wait ten minutes for a better price.
Frankfurt 79% Over 2.5 goals 43% Over 3.5 goals
Mainz 72% Over 2.5 goals 48% Over 3.5 goals
Since resumption Mainz have not won and Frankfurt won just once. All four Frankfurt games were Over 2.5 goals, Mainz have had two Over and two Under.
Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Leverkusen have been in good form and have a decent record against Bayern. At home, the last six meetings resulted in two home wins and three draws, with four of the six games Under 2.5 goals. In the overall head to head, seven of the last ten have been Over 2.5 goals with five wins for Bayern and three for Leverkusen. It would be a brave man to go Under 2.5 goals here at 3.20, even though the stats suggest it in Leverkusen. People will think I’ve gone mad, but Leverkusen are a decent side and 5.50 about a home win is tempting, however a small Lay of Bayern at 1.50 with a view to trading out if Leverkusen lead or if it is level after 30 minutes. Bayern are top class, but it is very rare I would consider a side at that price away from home against a decent side.
Leverkusen 62% Over 2.5 goals 38% Over 3.5 goals
Bayern Munich 79% Over 2.5 goals 62% Over 3.5 goals
Since the resumption Leverkusen have won three and Bayern won all four. Three of the four Leverkusen games were Over 2.5 goals, Bayern have had two Over and two Under, and only conceded two goals.
Dortmund v Hertha Berlin
Dortmund are probably going to finish second to Bayern but all they can do is keep the pressure on and a 6-1 win away at Paderborn was impressive as all goals came in the second half. Hertha have been in form and have drawn on two of their last three visits to Dortmund. In the last five overall head to head, Dortmund have won three and drawn two. Hertha are unbeaten in their last six games and will fancy this, steaming into a Dortmund side who believe they will be second, is not the best advice, particularly at short prices. Hertha are as big as 8.0 and that is a bit too big and I expect that to shorten during the week. A small Lay of Dortmund at around 1.40 is the trading angle.
Dortmund 79% Over 2.5 goals 66% Over 3.5 goals
Hertha Berlin 76% Over 2.5 goals 48% Over 3.5 goals
Since matches resumed, Dortmund have won three and lost 1-0 to Bayern. Hertha have won three and drawn 2-2 with Leipzig. The three wins were all to Nil. Dortmund have had two games Over 2.5 goals and two Under whilst Hertha have had three Over and one Under.
Sunday 7th June 2020
Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg
With Bremen’s recent record, and Wolfsburg games generally being low on goals, we should be looking at Unders here, but more recent head to head stats suggest that may not be the case. Seven of the last eight head to head have seen both teams score whilst the four recent meetings in Bremen saw three games go Over 2.5 goals with Bremen winning all four. With Wolfsburg favourite on the books, that might be worth a Lay at 2.30 as a trading angle.
Werder Bremen 68% Over 2.5 goals 46% Over 3.5 goals
Wolfsburg 48% Over 2.5 goals 24% Over 3.5 goals
Since the resumption both sides have won two with Bremen also managing a draw. When it comes to goals, they are the opposite, Bremen have had three games Under 2.5 goals whilst Wolfsburg have had three games Over 2.5 goals.
Augsburg v Koln
Games between these two are usually tight and not the best games for Laying the draw! Four of the last six and five of the last eight meetings ended level, including two of the last four head to head in Augsburg. Six of those last eight meetings were Under 2.5 goals so trading 0-0 and 1-1 on the correct score market is one option. Alternatively, you could Lay Augsburg at around 2.80 with a view to trading.
Augsburg 62% Over 2.5 goals 38% Over 3.5 goals
Koln 75% Over 2.5 goals 50% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart Augsburg have won only one game with two games Over 2.5 goals and two Under. Koln have played three (they play Monday) and have yet to win with two draws. All three of their games were Over 3.5 goals.
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