Bundesliga Trading Focus Stats Update
Since the restart of the Bundesliga it has been noticeable how few home wins there have been and this is an interesting thing to keep in your mind, as other leagues restart over the coming weeks. It may just turn out to be relevant to the Bundesliga and as with all stats, over time the significance may reduce. One popular theory I have put forward as a reason is the “no home crowd” lack of influence on the referee. How many times have you seen big games, between top teams, influenced by the noise a crowd makes when something happens? A foul against a home player which on replay on TV is totally innocuous but results in a card because the crowd collectively roar. Even the best referees are likely to be influenced by that. So, in theory if there is no noise, are the referees fairer in their decision making? Nobody is saying they are corrupt, just human, and prone to errors, so the behind closed-door atmosphere might actually be helping them.
So far there have been 27 games played in the Bundesliga with 5 home wins, 10 draws and 12 away wins. This may well change over time, but it is worth bearing in mind at present.
Friday 29th May 2020
Freiburg v Leverkusen
The last four meetings were all tight and Under 2.5 goals. Three of the last four head to head in Freiburg ended 0-0, although that will be a big price here with both sides involved in games with goals. One stand out stat is that five of the last ten overall head to head ended in draws, including three of the last four. Leverkusen come here having made a great start since the break and have looked right on their game. Freiburg drew with Leipzig but lost at home to Bremen and on this recent form you can only consider an away win, the downside being those draw stats. Betting sides at 1.73 away from home is not my style but it is hard to see any other result, perhaps a small trade on Under 2.5 goals at 2.30 and hope for a goalless first 25-30 minutes.
Freiburg 52% Over 2.5 goals
Leverkusen 63% Over 2.5 goals
Saturday 30th May 2020
Mainz v Hoffenheim
You wouldn’t want to support either of these at present, both are capable, but can throw in plenty of shockers. The games between them are usually exciting with goals, the last nine head to head were all Over 2.5 goals. In eight of nine both teams scored, and six of the nine went Over 4.5 goals. One interesting stat is that all nine of those games had a first half goal. Wait ten minutes and Lay 0-0 in the half-time correct score market and let’s hope there is not a really early goal.
Mainz 78% Over 2.5 goals
Hoffenheim 63% Over 2.5 goals
Hertha Berlin v Augsburg
In the last eight head to head, five games finished level. The four most recent meetings were all Over 3.5 goals. Hertha won their first two games after the break scoring seven goals, Augsburg lost to a late Wolfsburg goal before stunning Schalke in Gelsenkirchen. Probably best to stay on the side of goals here and with both in decent enough form, with Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 a fair enough trading proposition.
Hertha Berlin 78% Over 2.5 goals
Augsburg 67% Over 2.5 goals
Wolfsburg v Frankfurt
A lot will depend on how the two squads deal with three games in just over a week, fitness may make a difference. Five of the last six head to head were away wins, does that give Frankfurt an edge? The recent meetings in Wolfsburg ended 1-1, 1-3, 1-0 and 2-1 so not a lot to glean from that. Wolfsburg games can be negative, but before the break they had been a bit more expansive. Frankfurt cannot defend and have problems, so Over 2.5 goals would have been the call, but it is no value at 1.66. I cannot believe this will end 0-0 so a Lay the draw should surely pay dividends to trade out at some point.
Wolfsburg 44% Over 2.5 goals
Frankfurt 77% Over 2.5 goals
Schalke v Werder Bremen
Seven of the last eight meetings were Over 2.5 goals including three of the last four in Gelsenkirchen, where Bremen have won on three of their last four visits. With Schalke looking really poor in their first two games, you would not be investing heavily at around 2.0, but Bremen are also not to be trusted, they did however win at Freiburg. Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 should give us trading options.
Schalke 59% Over 2.5 goals
Werder Bremen 73% Over 2.5 goals
Sunday 31st May 2020
Moenchengladbach v Union Berlin
Only one previous meeting which Union won 2-0 back in November. Gladbach cannot afford to slip up at home any more after losing to Leverkusen, and that adds pressure. Union were thrashed 4-0 by their local rivals Hertha having previously lost to Bayern, despite playing well. They have to be careful as they are not safe yet and may look at this fixture as one not to lose. Can Gladbach break them down? I think they can but at 1.50 I do not want to pay to find out, so I would rather chance them at 2.30 -1 goal on the handicap, as they try to get back on track.
Moenchengladbach 70% Over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin 56% Over 2.5 goals
Monday 1st June 2020
Koln v RB Leipzig
Only five previous meetings and all five saw both teams score. Four of the five games were Over 2.5 goals. Leipzig were impressive at Mainz and in that from would dispose of Koln, but the home side are resilient and will not go down without a fight. With both sides amongst the goals, and Koln strong at home and Leipzig great away, we must be looking at goals, so Over 3.5 goals at 2.20 looks a fair shout.
Koln 74% Over 2.5 goals
RB Leipzig 70% Over 2.5 goals
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