Bundesliga Trading Focus (27th June 2020)

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Saturday 27^th June 2020

Leverkusen v Mainz

A game that Leverkusen need to win first and foremost and hope that things go their way elsewhere. A lot may depend on what is happening in Monchengladbach, but Leverkusen need to just concentrate on winning. The worry is that if they are still level, and Gladbach are in control, then this match could just play out for a draw. That would be against the stats as there has been no draw in the last ten meetings today. Leverkusen have won three of the last four head to head at home, all to Nil. As you would expect, the markets have reacted to all this with Leverkusen around 1.25 which is a ridiculous price. Try Leverkusen to win to Nil at 2.40.

Leverkusen 61% Over 2.5 goals 39% Over 3.5 goals

Mainz 67% Over 2.5 goals 45% Over 3.5 goals

Monchengladbach v Hertha Berlin

A draw will probably be enough for the home side unless Leverkusen go goal crazy, and that makes this game a difficult call. They have won five of the last six meetings today with Hertha at home but lost the last one 0-3. They must avoid defeat and have had two confidence boosting wins recently. Hertha beat Leverkusen to end a run of three defeats, but it is hard to see where their motivation will come from for this final game. I think Hertha +2 on the handicap at 1.91 is worth a small interest.

Monchengladbach 70% Over 2.5 goals 42% Over 3.5 goals

Hertha Berlin 73% Over 2.5 goals 45% Over 3.5 goals

Augsburg v RB Leipzig

This game is the least interesting of the five with Leipzig needing a win to guarantee third place. They are assured of Champions League football and would probably like to finish third, but I would not risk them at 1.36 away from home, even at Augsburg. Two of the last three meetings today have ended 0-0 and Leipzig have yet to win in three visits to Augsburg. The home side may relax now that they are safe and that could mean goals. We will try a trade on Over 3.5 goals at 2.00 with a view to trading out if early goals.

Augsburg 58% Over 2.5 goals 36% Over 3.5 goals

RB Leipzig 67% Over 2.5 goals 52% Over 3.5 goals

Union Berlin v Dusseldorf

Dusseldorf probably need to just avoid defeat as a draw may be good enough, but they must go for the three points to ensure they stay in the relegation playoff place to give themselves a chance of staying up. Only one previous meeting and Dusseldorf won at home by 2-1 in December. Union have been in decent form and will not roll over easily, but if they go behind it is hard to know how hard they will push themselves. Dusseldorf have drawn three of their last four and five of their last eight, so it is hard to see many goals here, so chance Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 as a trading angle.

Union Berlin 55% Over 2.5 goals 33% Over 3.5 goals

Dusseldorf 61% Over 2.5 goals 36% Over 3.5 goals

Werder Bremen v Koln

Two sides who do not know how to win, although Bremen did manage to take three points away at Paderborn. Koln have not won in nine after being in great form before that with eight wins out of ten, but the wheels have fallen off big time. Bremen have lost four of their last five, but this is the perfect opponent when you need to win. Of course, a win doesn’t guarantee anything as it depends what happens in Berlin, but they must go for it, for the chance of staying up. Two of the last three head to head in Bremen were draws and five of the last ten overall head to head ended level. Eight of the last ten head to head were Under 2.5 goals. This is tough, as if Dusseldorf lead early in Berlin then the Bremen heads may drop, and I certainly do not want to take 1.60 on the home side. We could chance Under 2.5 goals at 2.75 as a trade option and hopefully get a quiet opening 20-25 minutes.

Werder Bremen 67% Over 2.5 goals 45% Over 3.5 goals

Koln 73% Over 2.5 goals 48% Over 3.5 goals

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