Bundesliga Trading Focus (22nd-24th May 2020)

Bundesliga Football Tips

Friday 22nd May 2020

Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

A local derby where the two sides have only met once at this level, a 1-0 win for Union courtesy of a late penalty. Hertha had a superb win at Hoffenheim whilst Union lost at home 2-0 to Bayern. Derby games are often all about the atmosphere and with no crowd it will be very strange. Hertha will be bankers for many following their three points last week, but Union only lost 2-0 to Bayern and although the away side had most of the possession, Union did have chances of their own. On last week’s performance, Hertha at 2.20 look worth getting involved with, however it may be closer than that and if they lead, trade for your stake back.

Hertha Berlin 77% Over 2.5 goals

Union Berlin 54% Over 2.5 goals

 

 

Saturday 23rd May 2020

Bayern Munich v Frankfurt

Bayern won away at Union and that should have blown away any cobwebs and take on Frankfurt who never got going at home to Moenchengladbach. In fact, Frankfurt were poor and if they turn up in the same form here, Bayern will blow them away. The two sides have met six times in the last two years in various competitions, and all were Over 2.5 goals with four Over 4.5 goals. In the Bundesliga, six of the last eight were Over 2.5 goals and Bayern have won the last five in Munich, scoring three or more in four of those games. Bayern to win to nil appeals most at 2.10, although the price is a bit skinny.

Bayern Munich 81% Over 2.5 goals

Frankfurt 76% Over 2.5 goals

Freiburg v Werder Bremen

Two well-matched teams here and the stats show three draws in the last six head to head. Freiburg were unlucky not to get three points at Leipzig and they will take a lot from their performance. Bremen had lost nine of eleven before the break and carried that on when they were thrashed by Leverkusen in the first game back. As well as Freiburg did at Leipzig, they are not much value even against Bremen. It might be worth chancing goals here with Over 3.5 goals at 2.80 a possible trading option.

Freiburg 54% Over 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen 75% Over 2.5 goals

Moenchengladbach v Leverkusen

This could be a cracker and it is a fixture that would be a surprise if it was a negative match. Leverkusen won as expected at Bremen but rattled in four goals whilst Gladbach beat Frankfurt comfortably by 3-1. Moenchengladbach have won the last three head to head and four of the last five head to head at home. Four of those five games were Over 2.5 goals. Gladbach clearly have the better recent record in this fixture, with the most telling stat being that there has been no draw in the last ten meetings. That will excite the Lay The Draw fans, but with the two teams evenly matched, that strategy may not be the best option as one side will probably need to lead by two to make a decent profit. Clearly the stats are on the side of the home team and at 2.30 they are probably worth a small interest.

Moenchengladbach 69% Over 2.5 goals

Leverkusen 60% Over 2.5 goals

 

Paderborn v Hoffenheim

Only the three recent head to head with two wins for Hoffenheim and a 0-0 draw in Paderborn. Paderborn have failed to score in all three of the games and drew 0-0 last week. Hoffenheim also failed to score last week when beaten 3-0 at home by Hertha. Paderborn had not won in six before the suspension and Hoffenheim will not have a better chance to get back in form, but they have a habit of letting us down. I thought Paderborn might be worth chancing, but they have been well backed and are now only 3.25 and at that price I really cannot recommend them. Perhaps a small Lay of Hoffenheim at around 2.10 with a view to trading, is a better option.

Paderborn 62% Over 2.5 goals

Hoffenheim 65% Over 2.5 goals

Wolfsburg v Dortmund

Wolfsburg have failed to score in their last six games against Dortmund with five wins for Dortmund and a 0-0 draw. Dortmund have also won on their last four visits to Wolfsburg and started with an easy win over Schalke by 4-0. Wolfsburg started well with a 2-1 win at Augsburg and may be getting better, so this will be a big test. Dortmund -1 on the handicap at 3.00 is a fair play here.

Wolfsburg 46% Over 2.5 goals

Dortmund 85% Over 2.5 goals

 

 

Sunday 24th May 2020

 

Koln v Dusseldorf

There is only one recent head to head at this level, which is a little surprising, Dusseldorf winning 2-0 back in November. Dusseldorf failed to break down Paderborn in a 0-0 draw and Koln let a two-goal lead slip at home to Mainz ending 2-2. Normally Koln would be a confident selection at home, particularly as Dusseldorf struggle for goals, but they capitulated a bit to easily against Mainz and trading Under 2.5 goals might be the way to go, at 2.10 with a view to getting out after 30 minutes if still 0-0.

Koln Over 73% 2.5 goals

Dusseldorf 58% Over 2.5 goals

Schalke v Augsburg

Schalke got thumped by Dortmund and this is the perfect game for them to bounce back, Augsburg have not won in the last eight meetings. Augsburg have managed two draws in their last four visits to Gelsenkirchen. Neither team has won in six games so not the greatest game to invest in so a tentative selection of over 2.5 goals at 1.91 and trade out if two early goals looks a possible angle.

Schalke 58% Over 2.5 goals

Augsburg 65% Over 2.5 goals

  

Mainz v RB Leipzig

Leipzig were lucky to get a point at home to Freiburg who had a late goal ruled out and they need to get straight back on track here. Mainz came from 2-0 down to grab a point at Koln and it is hard to see there not being goals here. That is backed up by the stats with all seven previous meetings going Over 2.5 goals with six of the seven going Over 3.5 goals and four of the seven Over 4.5 goals. In Mainz, the last three games ended 3-3, 3-0 and 2-3. With Over 3.5 goals around 1.60 we clearly cannot get involved with that so as Leipzig and Mainz are both involved in games with late goals, Laying the correct score at around 70 minutes might be a good strategy here.

Mainz 77% Over 2.5 goals

RB Leipzig 69% Over 2.5 goals

 

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