Bundesliga Betfair Trading Focus (20th June 2020)

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Andy

After several years at JuiceStorm.com the time has come for me to move on to pastures new.

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It is highly likely that by the time you read this, Bayern will be Champions and we will leave their game alone as it may be a dead rubber with Freiburg safe, although with an outside chance of Europa League football. Paderborn will be relegated by then, so the fun is at the bottom of the table with six teams looking to avoid relegation.

Saturday 20^th June 2020

Dusseldorf v Augsburg

Dusseldorf have become hard to beat and lost to a last kick goal to Dortmund having played well. This is a huge game for both sides, a win for either would have a massive effect on the relegation zone. All three recent head to head were Over 2.5 goals with two wins for Augsburg and one win for Dusseldorf. Augsburg have never really got going since the break, but Dusseldorf have now only lost two in nine, to Bayern and Dortmund. Dusseldorf to grab three vital points at 2.00 and trade for stake back if they lead.

Dusseldorf 61% Over 2.5 goals   35% Over 3.5 goals

Augsburg 58% Over 2.5 goals   35% Over 3.5 goals

Four of the six Dusseldorf games were Over with just two of Augsburg’s six. Dusseldorf have drawn three of their six, Augsburg won two of their six games.

Koln v Frankfurt

The last six head to head saw three Under and three Over. The last two games both ended 4-2. Two of the last three meetings today in Koln were Under. No strong stats here so current form will probably be the best angle and that means a Lay of Koln at 2.50.

Koln 74% Over 2.5 goals   48% Over 3.5 goals

Frankfurt 77% Over 2.5 goals   42% Over 3.5 goals

On resumption stats there must be goals, five of Koln’s six games and six of Frankfurt’s seven were Over 2.5 goals. Koln have not won managing three draws, Frankfurt have won three of their last four.

Mainz v Werder Bremen

Six of the last eight head to head were Over 2.5 goals. Bremen have won three of their last four visits to Mainz.

Mainz 68% Over 2.5 goals   45% Over 3.5 goals

Werder Bremen 68% Over 2.5 goals   45% Over 3.5 goals

Since resumption Mainz have lost all three at home and Bremen won all three away. Mainz two from six and Bremen three from seven in the Over 2.5 goals stats since the break.

Hertha Berlin v Leverkusen

Two sides who had been in form, but both have slipped recently although this should be a decent game. Six of the last eight head to head were Over 2.5 goals and there were no draws. The last three games in Berlin ended 1-5, 2-1 and 2-6 so anything could happen. Leverkusen are short at 1.75 away so Over 3.5 goals at 2.50 as a Betfair Trading option.

Hertha Berlin 74% Over 2.5 goals   48% Over 3.5 goals

Leverkusen 61% Over 2.5 goals   39% Over 3.5 goals

Both have seen four of six games go Over 2.5 goals since the break. Hertha have lost their last two, the red card was crucial last week when they were leading, and Leverkusen have won only one in four.

RB Leipzig v Dortmund

This game could be for second place, in seven previous meetings today, games have been close with three wins for Dortmund and to wins Leipzig with two draws. The three games in Leipzig were all Under 2.5 goals, although season stats suggests both teams have plenty of “Overs” games. Dortmund might just have a little too much experience and keep this tight, so Under 2.5 goals at 2.50 as a Betfair Trading angle.

RB Leipzig 68% Over 2.5 goals   52% Over 3.5 goals

Dortmund 74% Over 2.5 goals   61% Over 3.5 goals

Since the break, Leipzig are unbeaten with three wins and three draws and Dortmund have won five and lost one. Three of the six Leipzig games and two of the six Dortmund games went Over 2.5 goals.

Schalke v Wolfsburg

Nothing to glean from the last eight head to head, four Under and four Over. Schalke have won three of the last four at home, three of them Over 2.5 goals. On current form, Wolfsburg away should be backed, but the 1.73 is noticeably short as Schalke can be tough to breakdown so we have to Lay Wolfsburg as a Betfair Trading angle.

Schalke 55% Over 2.5 goals   26% Over 3.5 goals

Wolfsburg 48% Over 2.5 goals   26% Over 3.5 goals

Since resumption, three of Schalke’s six games and four of Wolfsburg’s six games ended Over 2.5 goals. Wolfsburg have won all three away games, Schalke have yet to win, losing four and drawing two.

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