Bundesliga Trading Focus (16th-18th May 2020)

Bundesliga Football Tips

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Overview

As we can have no idea how fit all the teams will be, we will just present some stats for past meetings today and how the teams were doing at the time the season was suspended. We have also added the % of games that finished Over 2.5 goals for that particular side. A lot of that may be irrelevant and that is for you to decide, what I would say is go carefully early on and form your own opinions of which teams look right “on it”. It might be a case, particularly the first weekend, of trading in running when you see how things are developing. If you do trade in running, remember you still need to do the pre-game research as a basis to making decisions in-play. One other thing to consider is the “no crowd” situation and whether you think that negates the home field advantage. It must have some effect but how much is not easy to determine, the stadium will be familiar, but the atmosphere strange.

Saturday 16^th May 2020

Dusseldorf v Paderborn

This is a huge match to re-start the season, with three points crucial to both sides in their fight for relegation. Just one relevant meeting the 2-0 win for Paderborn back in October. Paderborn have lost their last four and five of their last six. Dusseldorf have won just one in eight but have drawn their last two. Two sides who look sure to benefit from the break as they could not have been in worse form. Perhaps being in familiar surroundings will help Dusseldorf, and three points for them would give them a big chance to stay up.

DUSSELDORF 60% OVER 2.5 GOALS PADERBORN 64% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Dortmund v Schalke

Schalke have one of the better records against Dortmund in recent years, perhaps because it is a local derby. In the last eight meetings today they have had five draws and just one defeat. The last two games in Dortmund saw six and eight goals, respectively. Schalke have not won in their last six away games whilst Dortmund are unbeaten at home and have only failed to score three or more in three of twelve home games. This will be a strange atmosphere for a big Derby game and that in itself must give Schalke more of a chance. In normal circumstances this game would have goals.

DORTMUND 84% OVER 2.5 GOALS SCHALKE 56% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Frankfurt v Moenchengladbach

Two of the last three meetings today in Frankfurt ended level. The other stats do not tell us much. Frankfurt have lost their last three, Gladbach play in midweek, but they had been unbeaten in five before losing narrowly to Dortmund. Both sides got off to decent starts at the beginning of the season and there is not a lot between the sides, and this should be a tight hard-fought game.

FRANKFURT 75% OVER 2.5 GOALS M’GLADBACH 68% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Augsburg v Wolfsburg

There have been three 0-0 draws in the last eight head to head with four of the other games going Over 2.5 goals. Wolfsburg have won two of the last three in Augsburg and won 8-1 at home at the end of last season. Augsburg have lost seven of their last nine including their last three and are slipping towards the relegation zone. Wolfsburg are unbeaten in six and continue to push for a European spot for next season. This would have been a much closer call than current league positions suggest, and it would be no surprise to see the spoils shared.

AUGSBURG 64% OVER 2.5 GOALS WOLFSBURG 44% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin

In the eight recent head to head, Hertha have not won any, there were three draws and five Hoffenheim wins. Hoffenheim won three of the last four meetings today at home. If Hertha played away all the time, they would probably be safe from relegation and they are unbeaten in their last five on the road. Hoffenheim had seemed to be affected by all the negative press about their owner and had not won in five. The break could benefit them more than most teams, however one fact that may be important here is that both teams started the regular season slowly.

HOFFENHEIM 64% OVER 2.5 GOALS HERTHA BERLIN 76% OVER 2.5 GOALS

RB Leipzig v Freiburg

In the seven head to head there were no draws with six home wins. All seven were Over 2.5 goals. Leipzig have lost only one at home, and Freiburg have won only one away in their last ten on the road. It may be safest to go with goals here, as Leipzig are a short price, but that is factored into the price. Both teams to score is an option but this may be a game to leave alone pre kick-off and see how the first fifteen minutes pay out.

RB LEIPZIG 72% OVER 2.5 GOALS FREIBURG 56% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Sunday 17^th May 2020

Koln v Mainz

We may have a bit more idea of what to expect, having watched the games on Saturday and although these are different teams, certain things may play out the same , such as plenty of goals, tight games no goals etc. Five of the last six head to head were Under 2.5 goals with the three games in Koln finishing 1-1, 2-0 and 0-0. Koln were playing well and had won eight in ten, but Mainz had lost just once in the last five. Koln might be a popular selection here, but they started the season poorly losing five of their first six, exactly the same as their opponents Mainz. Maybe neither side will be forward enough to win.

KOLN 72% OVER 2.5 GOALS MAINZ 76% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Union Berlin v Bayern Munich

Just one head to head meeting which Bayern won 2-1 at home in October. Bayern were very difficult to beat when the break came whilst Union were just starting to look like the season was catching up on them. Bayern are noticeably short, as they should be and will probably come back in top form whilst Union won only one of their first seven games. Looks a penalty kick for the away side but not for me this game.

UNION BERLIN 56% OVER 2.5 GOALS BAYERN MUNICH 84% OVER 2.5 GOALS

Monday 18^th May 2020

Werder Bremen v Leverkusen

Before the break Leverkusen would have been strong fancies here, even away from home as they had lost only one in nine. Bremen on the other hand, had been on a poor run of form, one win in eleven, with nine defeats, so this break can only have done them some good. They had lost their last six home games, the last five without scoring, and had not won at home since the second game of the season. If any team needed a distraction from football it is Bremen, time will tell if they can utilize this and start afresh. Leverkusen are the opposite; they did not need a break and were pushing for a Champions League spot. Leverkusen often get off to a flyer and only Bayern have scored more goals in the first fifteen minutes of games. Some logic might suggest if they are quick off the blocks in games, they might be the same after a break. On past stats, seven of the last ten meetings today were Over 2.5 goals, with four of the last five games in Bremen being Over.

WERDER BREMEN 75% OVER 2.5 GOALS LEVERKUSEN 60% OVER 2.5 GOALS