Bundesliga Trading Focus Stats Update
Just three away wins last week in the Bundesliga, so it might be settling down a little, but there were only two home wins, and both by 1-0. Home advantage looks to be not as prevalent behind closed doors at present.
Friday 12th June 2020
Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig
Six of the previous seven meetings were Over 2.5 goals. Leipzig have won three with two draws and two Hoffenheim wins. All three games in Hoffenheim were Over 2.5 goals with Leipzig winning there last season. Leipzig slipped up late on at home to Paderborn and draw too many games. Hoffenheim have recovered since losing at home to Hertha. The thing with Leipzig is that they either take teams apart, or they struggle to finish the opposition off, it depends who they are playing. Overs looks the best trading play, but the bookies have that covered at 1.36 and at the prices on offer, we have to Lay Leipzig at 1.44 with a view to trading.
Hoffenheim 63% Over 2.5 goals 30% Over 3.5 goals
RB Leipzig 70% Over 2.5 goals 53% Over 3.5 goals
Since resuming, Hoffenheim have won two, drawn two and lost one. RB Leipzig have won two and drawn three of their five games. Both sides have had three of their five games go Over 2.5 goals.
Saturday 13th June 2020
Hertha Berlin v Frankfurt
Five of the last ten meetings have ended in a draw so at the prices, we really should be betting a draw. Four of the five most recent head to head in Berlin were Under 2.5 goals. Games do tend to be tight and I can see this being the same, however Hertha have looked good and only narrowly went down to Dortmund so the play has to be Hertha at 2.00 and trade for stake back if they lead or if you are happy to, stay in and even up if they go two goals in front.
Hertha Berlin 73% Over 2.5 goals 47% Over 3.5 goals
Frankfurt 77% Over 2.5 goals 40% Over 3.5 goals
Since resumption, Hertha have won three, drawn one and lost one, Frankfurt have won two, lost two and drawn one. Three of the five Hertha games and four of the five Frankfurt games finished Over 2.5 goals.
Dusseldorf v Dortmund
Only three recent relevant head to head which all ended in home wins, with Dusseldorf winning at home by 2-1 last season. Dortmund still have an outside chance of catching Bayern so will need to keep their focus, however slim that looks. Dusseldorf are fighting relegation, and this is a must win game, but they don’t come much tougher and they have to hope that the Dortmund players so not have their minds fully on the job. They are playing well enough to catch Dortmund out on an off day. Let’s have a go by Laying Dortmund at 1.40 as a trade to hopefully get a green book at some point in the game.
Dusseldorf 63% Over 2.5 goals 37% Over 3.5 goals
Dortmund 77% Over 2.5 goals 63% Over 3.5 goals
Since the resumption Dusseldorf have lost to Bayern but drawn three and won one. Dortmund have won four and also lost to Bayern. Four of the five Dusseldorf games were Over 2.5 goals with just two of Dortmund’s five games going Over.
Bayern Munich v Moenchengladbach
Gladbach have one of the better records in Munich, they have won two and drawn one of their last five visits to the Champions. They have also won three and drawn one of the last eight overall head to head, five of those eight games were Over 2.5 goals. Bayern could win the title if Dortmund lose and they are unlikely to take their eye off the ball, although Moenchengladbach are a decent side and might not roll over easily. Both teams to score would have been an option but not at 1.50 so Bayern to win and both teams to score at 2.30 is a speculative play.
Bayern Munich 80% Over 2.5 goals 63% Over 3.5 goals
Moenchengladbach 67% Over 2.5 goals 43% Over 3.5 goals
Since the resumption Bayern have won all five, three of the five Over 2.5 goals. Moenchengladbach have won two, lost two and drawn one. Three of their five games were Over 2.5 goals.
Sunday 14th June 2020
Mainz v Augsburg
Both sides are hovering just above the relegation places with a win for either being a huge step to safety. They could get negative and play not to lose and a draw is a real player here, however recent stats suggest not. Those recent meetings had goals, six of the last eight were Over 2.5 goals with four wins apiece, no draws. Mainz at home are slightly better than Augsburg away but not enough to bet on them at 2.30 and it might be worth Laying them at that price and hopefully trade out at some point.
Mainz 70% Over 2.5 goals 47% Over 3.5 goals
Augsburg 60% Over 2.5 goals 37% Over 3.5 goals
Since the resumption both have won one drawn two and lost two and both have had two of their five games Over 2.5 goals.
Schalke v Leverkusen
No obvious stats on goals, four Under and four Over 2.5 goals in the last eight head to head. Leverkusen have won four and drawn two of those eight. The big stat is that Leverkusen have won four and drawn one of their last five visits to Gelsenkirchen. On current form that trend could continue, but I will not take 1.57 on that happening here, even though Leverkusen have won their last three away games. Schalke are poor so we will try Leverkusen -1 goal on the handicap at 2.50.
Schalke 57% Over 2.5 goals 27% Over 3.5 goals
Leverkusen 63% Over 2.5 goals 40% Over 3.5 goals
Since the restart, Leverkusen have won three and lost two, Schalke have drawn one and lost four. Four of Leverkusen’s five games and three of Schalke’s five games were Over 2.5 goals.
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