It’s the first of the European Finals this Wednesday as Marseille and Atl Madrid head to Lyon to play for the Europa League title.
The first thing to note is that with the final being played in France (Lyon) then many will feel this will be a huge boost for Marseille, but it’s also worth pointing out that a French side has NEVER won this competition.
Yes, a surprising stat, but since it was first played in 1971 we are yet to see a French side lift this trophy – Marseille have lost in two finals though (1999 & 2004).
In contrast, the Spanish teams have dominated this event over the years with 10 wins and 5 runners-up in total, while they’ve also landed a staggering 8 of the last 14.
Atl Madrid have been responsible for two of those recent wins (2010 & 2012) too.
Recent Head-to-Heads – We’ve actually very little to go on here with Marseille and Atl Madrid having only played twice before and that came back in 2008 in the Champions League – those games ended 0-0 and 2-1 to Atl Madrid.
So, when approaching this game it might pay to look more at each sides European form this season.
Starting with Marseille and they’ve played 18 European games this season – but has actually lost 5 of those, winning 9 but also drawing 4 – meaning they’ve actually only won 50% of their games in Europe this term.
10 of their 18 games in Europe have gone Under 2.5 goals and also seen both teams NOT score.
Florian Thauvon is their main scorer this season with 25 goals – he’s 8.00 to score first, or 3.60 anytime.
Atl Madrid have the slightly better record in Europe this season. Don’t forget they were also in the early rounds of the Champions League and came into this competition halfway through after getting dumped out of the CL.
They’ve played 14 games in Europe this season – having only lost 7, drawing 5 and winning 7. Yes, that’s the same 50% winning strike-rate that Marseille have but since joining the Europa League Atl Madrid have won 6 of their 8 games, drawing and losing one each too.
10 of their 14 European games were low-scoring too – going Under 2.5 goals, while they’ve also kept 7 clean sheets from their 14 games in Europe this season.
The 90 mins match betting very-much favours Atl Madrid at 1.66, the draw 3.80 and Marseille, while the outright betting is Atl Madrid 1.33 and Marseille 3.40.
A Madrid clean sheet at 2.00 might appeal – this bet has paid out in 50% of their 14 European games this season so that price looks spot-on.
However, with both sides just about favouring low-scoring games this season in Europe then the 1.61 on UNDER 2.5 GOALS looks the way to go. Yes, these odds are not going to get us rich, but Atl Madrid don’t concede many goals and in is expected to be a tight and cagey final the Spanish side can frustrate Marseille, who – don’t forget – will be playing in their home country which might also bring it’s own pressures.
JUICESTORM VERDICT: UNDER 2.5 GOALS @1.61
Europa League Cup Final
Marseille v Atletico Madrid
Weds 16th May 2018, 19:45pm
Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais
– Only met twice before (2008, Champions League)
– Marseille 0-0 Atl Madrid
– Atl Madrid 2-1 Marseille
– Florian Thauvon (Marseille) is their top scorer this season with 25 goals
– Marseille have lost 5 of their 18 Europa League Cup games this season
– Marseille have played 18 Europa League Games This Season, Won 9, Draw 4, Lost 5
– 10 of Marseille’s 18 European games this season went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
– Both teams DIDN’T score in 10 of Marseille’s 18 European games this season
– Marseille have scored in 12 of their 18 European games this season
– Griezmann (Atl Madrid) is their top scorer this season with 27 goals
– Atl Madrid have played 14 European Games This Season, Won 7, Draw 5, Lost 2
– Atl Madrid have lost just 2 of their 14 European games this season (CL & EL)
– 10 of Atl Madrid’s 14 European games this season went UNDER 2.5 GOALS
– Both teams DIDN’T score in 8 of Atl Madrid’s 14 European games this season
– Atl Madrid have kept 7 clean sheets in their 14 European games this season
– Spanish clubs have won 8 of the last 14 Europa League Finals
– A French club has NEVER won this competition (since 1971)
Recent Europa League Winners
2017 – Manchester United
2016 – Sevilla
2015 – Sevilla
2014 – Sevilla
2013 – Chelsea
2012 – Atl Madrid
2011 – Porto
2010 – Atl Madrid
2009 – Shakhtar Donetsk
2008 – Zenit St Petersburg
2007 – Sevilla
2006 – Sevilla
2005 – CSKA Moscow
2004 – Valencia
2003 – Porto
2002 – Feyenoord
2001 – Liverpool
2000 – Galatasaray