The Only Thing You Need to Do To Make Money Trading On Betfair
A successful trader avoids poor analysis, sloppy execution and bad choices
At the end of each successful year I usually do the typical what have I learned in – enter year – article and write about successful strategies, volatility regimes, implied bets and exit and entry strategies.
I stumbled across an old article concerning the biggest trading mistakes in another market and I realised that it contained the answer to the key Betfair and Matchbook trading problem that plagues us all.
The article is an endless litany of missed analysis, sloppy execution and terrible choices at key points in trading. Reading it was like watching a slow motion car wreck. You know it’s wrong but you just can’t pull away. A little like the old days here on JuiceStorm with my BetBotPro Result articles.
Tolstoy once said that every happy family is the same, but each unhappy family is unique in its own misery. When it comes to trading I think the exact opposite is true. Every happy trader is different but every unhappy trader is depressingly the same. What unites every losing trader is the misguided attempt to make every win the same size, while making every loss different.
It stems, I think, from our almost subconscious need for a “wage”. Wages are, of course, uniform. They are paid on a weekly basis and lull us into the belief that money like light bulbs, cereal and soap comes in nice uniform units of measure.
But in trading to think this way is pure madness. It will never make you successful. The markets are not uniform and never provide predictable profits.
Imagine, if we smashed this mental model and instead did the exact opposite of what many betting exchange traders do. Imagine if we accepted the fact that our wins will be all over the place. Sometimes banking as little a tick, sometimes making 20 or even 50 ticks per market. And then suppose that we made a vow that no matter what, no matter how, no matter why, our losses would always be the same size.
I have written before about the need for a money stop. For a typical £1,000 trading account I think a £10 money stop per trade is just right. So suppose that you made it your business to never lose more £10.00 on any trade you made. It didn’t matter if you were right or wrong. It didn’t matter if this was a planned trade or simply a mistake. The only thing that mattered is that you never lost more that £10 on any given trade idea. I guarantee that if you did that there is almost no way that you will fail as a Matchbook or Betfair trader.
You may not be profitable but you will NOT lose all your capital.
So we can talk about tactics til kingdom come, but the only thing we really need to do is keep all our losses at the same size ALWAYS and if we can just do that we will be well on our way to making money.