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Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

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It’s Semi Finals day at the Internationaux de Strasbourg and we are going to be taking an analytical look at a interesting match up between the Chinese world number 39, Shuai Peng and the Australian world number 24, Sam Stosur.

These two have met on eight previous occasions, with Stosur leading the head to head 7-1.They have met twice this year, both on hard courts, Peng won the first encounter in Taipei, Taiwan 6-4 6-4 and more recently in March, Stosur won 4-6 6-3 7-5 on the American hard courts of Miami. It is also worth noting that Stosur has won all four of their previous meetings today on clay.

Both players have won three matches to get to this stage, let’s have a look at how they made it through;  In Round 1, Peng beat home favourite Elize Cornet 3-6 7-5 6-1, Peng was in inspired form having dropped the first set, hitting a flurry of backhand winners throughout the match. In Round 2 Peng defeated Amandine Hesse 7-5 6-2, before yesterday overcoming the American,Shelby Rogers 6-0 6-4 in the Quarter Finals. Stosur opened her campaign by defeating Ying-Ying Duan 6-0 6-1, she followed that up in Round 2 by comfortably beating an out of sorts Madison Brengle 6-0 6-1. Yesterday saw her overcome her stiffest challenge to date in Carla Suarez Navarro, winning the tight Quarter Final clash 7-6 6-4. So with Stosur yet to drop a set and looking in inspired form, can Peng find a way to halt the Aussie’s progress this week…

Let’s begin, as always by looking at the players serving stats; Peng this week has won 63% of her service points and held serve 78% of the time. Her recent clay court mean looks like this, 59% service points won and 69% service hold. So we can see that Peng is serving above her recent clay court mean this week, something that she will have to keep up against the aggressive Stosur returns. Stosur this week has won 70% of her service points and held serve a massive 88% of the time. These compare to her recent clay court mean numbers of 65% service points won and 79% service hold. Stosur’s serving has been exceptional this week, and those staggering numbers back that up, if she serves anywhere near that today then I can’t see how Peng will be able to compete.

Onto the return of serve numbers then; Peng has won 50% of her return points, 40% of her break points chances and opponents have held serve just 50% of the time against her this week. This compares to her recent clay court mean numbers of 45% return points won, 37% break points won and 62% opponents hold serve. Again, we can see that Peng’s numbers are up from her recent clay court mean on the return of serve also, I think that she will need to increase these numbers further today if she is going to look to gain some traction in the Stosur service games. Stosur this week has won  56% of her return points, 46% of her break points and opponents have held serve against her a mere 38% of the time. He clay court mean numbers look like this, 42% return points won, 41% break points won and 68% opponents hold. Stosur’s numbers his week against her clay court mean make her look like a totally different player! If she keeps up this weeks form on the return of serve I can see her breaking Peng on a number of occasions.

Both of these players possess great power and are aggressive shot-makers, especially of the backhand side. Both will look to dictate play from the back of the court and will wrestle to gain initiative in the rallies. I think this match is firmly on Stosur’s racket, if she serves well and takes charge from the back of the court then she stands a great chance, she should also get plenty of chances off the Peng serve. If Peng is to stand any chance, she needs to serve even better than she has this week and hit a lot of winners off that dangerous backhand she possesses.