Match Preview V.Williams vs Konta 13.07 Wimbledon 2017

Wimbledon, London, UK, Grass Courts, WTA

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Previous Meetings

These two have met five times before, with Konta leading the head to head 3-2. They have never played against each other on grass, however Williams beat Konta in Rome on the clay just a couple of months ago 6-1 3-6 6-1. The Brit has beaten Williams this year also, back in March on the hard courts of Miami, where she was victorious 6-4 7-5 in just over two hours.

Wimbledon Results So Far…

Williams beat Elise Mertens 7-6 6-4 in Round 1, before fighting back from a set down to beat China’s Qiang Wang 4-6 6-4 6-1 in Round 2. In Round 3 she defeated Naomi Osaka 7-6 6-4 and Round 4 saw another straight sets victory, this time against Croat Ana Konjuh, 6-3 6-2. Wiliams Quarter Final match against Jelena Ostapenko looked a potential banana-skin on paper, however the Latvian wasn’t really at the races and struggled for consistency throughout, allowing Williams to win through pretty comfortably 6-3 7-5 in just over an hour.

Konta defeated Su-Wei Hsieh in Round 1 6-2 6-2, before winning a marathon match in Round 2 against the lady who beat her in the Nottingham Final, Donna Vekic, 7-6 4-6 10-8, in a match that lasted over 3 hours. Round 3 was a much more stress-free affair as the Brit brushed aside Maria Sakkari 6-4 6-1. Round 4 proved as tricky in reality as it looked on paper, as Caroline Garcia proved stiff resistance for Konta, however the Brit found a way to dig deep and pull through, 7-6 4-6 6-4. Life got no easier for Konta in the Quarter Final as she faced-off against Romanian Simona Halep, in a match that had three sets written all over it from the start. Halep took the first on a tiebreak before Konta did the same in the second, some strong mental resolve and hard hitting proved the difference for the Brit in the decider as she took it 6-4 and booked her place in today’s Semi Final.

Serving Stats

William’s mean serving stats for this fortnight so far look like this; she’s won 71% of her service points and held serve 91% of the time.

Konta’s mean serving stats for this fortnight so far look like this; she’s won 69% of her service points and held serve 89% of the time.

Both have very strong serves, and i don’t expect to see many breaks today. Venus will probably shade the ace count but i think first serve % could play a huge part in today’s match. If the American isn’t serving a high % of first serves then i think Konta has a chance, the Brit has been winning over 10% more points on her second serve than Williams in this tournament so far, and this may well be a telling stat come the end of the match.

Returning Stats

William’s mean returning stats for this fortnight look like this, she’s won 42% of his return points, 38% of her break points and opponents have held 72% of the time against her.

Konta’s mean returning stats for this fortnight look like this, she’s won 37% of his return points, 34% of her break points and opponents have held 81% of the time against her.

Williams certainly has the more consistent return of serve with both players looking to take full swings off the return. Williams has won over 80% of her first serves this week, and i don’t expect that stat to change much today, Konta will need to make it count when the American is forced to hit a second serve and really go after the ball off the return. By the same token, Williams will also be looking to aggressively attack the Konta second serve off both wings, this is likely to be her best chance of breaking also.

Groundstrokes

Both will hit the ball very hard and pretty flat off both wings from the back of the court. They actually have very similar game styles, both are better at attacking than defending and both will look to get the first strike in during the rallies, expect to see plenty of short points today, and lots of winners. I do feel like whoever can be the most consistent off the ground will stand the best chance of winning this today, and from what i’ve seen this fortnight, i’d have to side with Williams on that front.

Summary

A tricky one to call this, head says Williams, heart says Konta. The American leads the stats in every area, and these rarely lie, she also has much more grand slam experience than Konta, especially at this stage of the competition. That being said, the Brit leads the head to head and will have the whole centre court crowd behind her today, she’s already proven that she can dig deep and come back from the brink and win, so maybe it is just ‘written in the stars’ for her. I think three sets is quite likely, and if i’m sticking my neck out, I think Williams experience and consistency might just win through.