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Well there was nothing worth us looking at yesterday, it’s a funny week of tennis really, I personally don’t think there’s too much quality about and am not the biggest fan of the tournaments being played.
Anyway, on Wednesday we suggested a potential three setter between Auger-Aliassime and Andreozzi, and we got that, we also thought the Canadian might just edge it, he didn’t but he should have won, and arguably in straight sets. The good news is that the traders amongst you would have been able to make plenty of money on this match if backing Auger-Aliassime pre-match, as Andreozzi was broken in the 5th game of the first set.
Today we take a look at the match between German Julia Goerges and new Russian number one, Daria Kastkina.
Previous Meetings
These two have met 5 times before, with Goerges leading the head to head 3-2. They have both won a match a piece on the clay, but both of those encounters were back in 2015.
Both players are very well versed on the dirt, and Kasatkina is the reigning champion here, having beaten Ostapenko in the final here 12 months ago.
Goerges’ Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats
Won 56% of her service points
Held serve 69% of the time
Goerges has one of the best serves in the Women’s game. It can at times be a little inconsistent, but generally speaking she will hit a good % of first serves, hitting plenty of aces and winning plenty of free points. She does at times leave her second serve a little short, and opponents can exploit this, however in her match against Osaka yesterday I thought she served magnificently (Osaka was totally out of sort mind you).
Kasatkina’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats
Won 57% of his service points
Held serve 67% of the time
The Russian also has a useful serve, not quite the same amount of power that Goerges possesses, meaning that she hits less aces, but she places her serve very very well. This often means that she receives short returns which she can put away with ease. Equally her second serve points won % is extremely high at 53%, this could be an important factor in this match if she can keep this number high.
Goerges’ Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats
Won 40% of her return points
Won 46% of her break points
Opponents have held 70% of the time against her
Goerges can at times struggle off the return, she is often too aggressive and will spray the ball long or wide with regularity. That being said when she is on her A game this can result in a huge number of flashy winners, especially off that big forehand side. If Kasatkina’s serve isn’t firing today, expect Goerges to really go after it and put a lot of pressure on the young Russian.
Kasatkina’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats
Won 49% of her return points
Won 53% of her break points
Opponents have held 49% of the time against her
Kasatkina has a strong and deliberate return of serve. Slightly less aggressive than Goerges, but more accurate and inconsistent. Equally adept of either wing, the Russian will make plenty of balls today. She will also look to go after any weak/short second serves.
Goerges’ Groundstrokes
The German will hit the ball hard off both wings, looking to get her big forehand into play as much as possible. She is a reasonable athlete, and I was impressed with her defensive skills against Osaka yesterday. When on, she’s very good, when off, anyone can beat her as she will make tonnes of unforced errors and then start trying too hard and going for too much, just compounding the problem (First Round here, she hit over 50 unforced errors).
Kasatkina’s Groundstrokes
A strong and very clean ball striker off both sides, with a lot more consistency than her opponent. She also though has less power, so relies on timing and keeping the ball deep. She is a fantastic athlete, and will chase down lost causes and make plenty of balls back in play today.
Summary
An interesting one this, Kasatkina loves playing here has points to defend being the reigning champion and has looked good so far this week. Goerges however is a powerhouse, and if she’s on her A game today I think she can win this. We will probably see three sets, and I think it’s a coin-flip really who is victorious at the end of this one. Given this, i think there is some value at Goerges current odds.
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