Match Preview Auger-Aliassime vs Andreozzi 04.04 JC Ferrero Challenger 2018

JC Ferrero Challenger Open, Alicante, Spain, Clay Courts, ATP Challenger Tour

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Previous Meetings

This is the pairs first meeting, and with slightly contrasting playing styles this should be an interesting match.

Auger-Aliassime’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats

Won 70% of his service points

Held serve 83% of the time

Auger-Aliassime has a very useful serve, he wins a very high % of his first serves (80%) and will hit a number of aces throughout a match. He also does a good job with his second serve, and will make it as difficult as possible to attack, he has a second serve win % of on the clay of 53% over the past 12 months, this is above the Tour average of 49%.

Andreozzi’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Serving Stats

Won 62% of his service points

Held serve 77% of the time

Andreozzi’s serve is good, he does need to hit a high % of first serves in order to hold his serve easily though. His second serve can be exploited, is at times inconsistent and can be left short and rife for attacking. All of his serving stats are just above the Tour average for the past 12 months on clay.

Auger-Aliassime’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats

Won 39% of his return points

Won 46% of his break points

Opponents have held 68% of the time against him

Auger-Aliassime has a good return of serve, his break point conversion is above the 12 month clay court Tour average and he will create on average 1 break point every 2 return games. Couple this impressive stat in with Davidovich Fokina’s weaker serve and I feel like the Canadian should be able to create plenty of chance to break today.

Andreozzi’s Past 12 Months Clay Court Mean Return Stats

Won 41% of his return points

Won 41% of his break points

Opponents have held 72% of the time against him

Andreozzi will look to get plenty of balls back in play off the return of serve, and will rarely look to be too aggressive, even off a short second serve. He will need to up his break point conversion % today in order to look to break the Canadian’s serve enough to win the match.

Auger Aliassime’s Groundstrokes

Auger Aliassime hits the ball with topspin off both sides. He favours his forehand wing but is still very adept off the backhand side. He has the ability to be patient and trade from the back of the court and will hit with good and regular depth. He also can be aggressive and attack given the opportunity and will put away any loose or short balls with aplomb.

Andreozzi’s Groundstrokes

Andreozzi will hit consistently off both wings, keeping the ball deep and working the points patiently. He is also capable of turning defence into attack, especially off the forehand side. He is a good athlete, and will play fairly deep behind the baseline, running down lost causes.

Summary

Tricky one to call this, it may well go three sets and actually it wouldn’t surprise me to see Auger-Aliassime edge this. He will be the more aggressive of the two players, and should hold serve more comfortably. However, if he is struggling with consistency off the ground, which at times he does (he’s only 17!) Andreozzi will be there to take advantage. Should be an entertaining watch this.