Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 16th Oct 2021

Ascot Horse Racing Tips and Trends

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Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.25 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

16/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
16/19 – Won at Listed or better class previously
15/19 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
14/19 – Won at least 5 times previously
13/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
13/19 – Favourites placed
12/19 – Aged 5 or older
12/19 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/19 – Raced at least 5 times that season
9/19 – Won their latest race
8/19 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
8/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 11)
4/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 6)
2/19 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/19 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 6)
Trueshan (11/1) won the race in 2020
Stradivarius won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019
Since 2011: 6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 9
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 2018 winner of this race – Stradivarius – is back for more this year, but at the age of 7 and now 31 career races you just feel he’s on a slight decline. That said, he’s still won twice this season – the Lonsdale and Doncaster Cup and was a fair runner-up in France last time out in the Prix du Cadran. However, the ‘new kid on the block’ in these top staying races is TRUESHAN, who lowered Strady’s colours in this race 12 months ago and also had him 4 ½ lengths back in France last time out. Yes, soft ground is key to this horse’s chance, so connections will be hoping that plenty of the wet stuff falls before the race which will really add to his chance. If the ground gets quicker then this will certainly help Strady, but even though Trueshan is much better on soft or heavy ground, he’s still won on good and good-to-soft in the past. Of the rest, the William Haggas runner Hamish returned from a long time off to beat the useful Hukum in a G3 at Kempton last time, He’s lightly-raced with just eight career runs but the step up to 2m is an unknown and the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ having run well after such a time off comes into play. Princess Zoe makes the trip over from Ireland and can’t be ruled out, but was just over 7 lengths behind Trueshan last time out in France. Berkshire Rocco is another to note being a course winner, but the other pick is BARON SAMEDI (e/w), who comes over from the Joseph O’Brien yard. He was last seen running on over 1m6f in the G1 Irish St Leger, so the step back up to 2m looks a good move. He’s won over this trip too and the cheekpieces on for the first time here catch the eye too.

2.00 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

18/19 – Won over 6f previously
18/19 – Won at least 3 times previously
17/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Raced at least 4 times that season
16/19 – Won at Listed or better class previously
15/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/19 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
14/19 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
14/19 – Won a Group race previously
13/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/19 – Raced at Haydock (7), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
11/19 – Favourites placed
4/19 – Won their latest race
4/19 – Favourites that won
2/19 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 6)
Glen Shiel (16/1) won the race in 2020
Since 2011: 4 of the last 10 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 10 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 10 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 10 runnings

The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Archie Watson runner – Dragon Symbol – will be popular having run well in many of the top sprints this season, but he’s won just once (from 7) on the turf and is slightly turning into a horse that is placed more often than winning. Course winner – Art Power – was an easy G3 winner in Ireland last time out over this trip so despite this being a step up in grade, heads here in tip-top form and was also a length fourth in this race 12 months ago. The winner that day in this race was GLEN SHIEL (e/w) and there could be some value in backing this other Archie Watson runner again this time. Yes, his form has been a bit in-and-out since and is yet to win a race since. But he ran well (2^nd) in the G1 Diamond Jubilee here in June and stayed on well here a few weeks go in a G3 so seems to be coming to the boil again. Softer ground will help his cause though, so any rain would help. Godolphin’s Creative Force and the Frankie-ridden Kinross are others to respect, but the other pick is the David Evans-trained ROHAAN. This 3 year-old has risen up the sprinting ranks this season and it’s remarkable to think this time last year he was rated just 55 and is now as high as 114! He landed the Wokingham Handicap here at the Royal Meeting in June and has since run well in G1 races at HQ, France and Ireland. Last time in Ireland he was slowly away and over the 5f didn’t have time to recover. He’ll be more at home over this 6f trip and we know Ascot suits. Ryan Moore, who is 2-from-3 on the horse, is a further plus back in the saddle.

2.35 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

13/13 – Raced 3 or more times that season
12/13 – Won at Listed or better class previously
11/13 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/13 – Won at least 3 times previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
10/13 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
10/13 – Won over 1m4f previously
10/13 – Rated 110 or higher
9/13 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Aged 3 years-old
7/13 – Won their last race
4/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/13 – Favourites that won
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/13 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Wonderful Tonight (4/1fav) won the race in 2020
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 11
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien has landed two of the last four runnings of this race and he seems to have every chance of adding to that again – this year with SNOWFALL. This classy filly rose to fame having won the Epsom Oaks back in June and since added the Irish and Yorkshire Oaks. Her season has hit the buffers a bit since, with two defeats in France, but she wasn’t disgraced in running just under 5 lengths 6^th in the Arc last time and now back racing against her own sex will be a big plus for her to get back to winning ways. She’s rated 120 and that’s a clear 10lbs higher than her nearest rival – Albaflora, and with that horse being a 4 year-old, Snowfall also gets a handy 6lbs off her. Of the rest, the Andrew Balding runner Invite was a nice Listed winner at Chester last time out and can go well, while ESHAADA has a bit to prove having last seen running well below-par behind Snowfall in the Yorkshire Oaks. She’s clearly better than that though, having run second in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot the time before and heads here fresher than most after 2 months off. It would be no surprise to see her bounce back to better form.

3.10 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

18/19 – Raced at least 3 times that season
17/19 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
17/19 – Finished in the top three in their last race
17/19 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
17/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
16/19 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
15/19 – Favourites placed
15/19 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/19 – Won their latest race
10/19 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/19 – Won at least 7 times previously
8/19 – Favourites that won
7/19 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Trained by Freddie Head
The Revenant (5/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
3 of the last 7 winners were French-trained
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 10 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s winner of this race – The Revenant – is back for more and can go well – any rain would help. But this looks a cracking match-up between the prolific winners Baaeed and Palace Pier. The former has won 8 of his 9 career runs – including 5 at Group One level. Frankie is riding and being the top-rated in the field he’s got a massive chance – it’s hard to put you off him. However, he does have to give 3lbs away to the fast-improving BAAEED and that might just be the difference. This William Haggas 3 year-old has caught the eye this season and is now 5-from-5 from his races. He was last seen winning the G1 Prix Du Moulin at Longchamp by 1 ¼ lengths, showing a great turn-of-foot that day to get the job done. Those looking for something to take him on with might cling to the fact this is his first run here at Ascot, but there is no reason to suggest it won’t suit. The stiff track could actually improve him further, with his pedigree indicating he could even get a longer trip in time. Of the rest, the Godolphin pair of Master Of The Seas and Benbatl have place claims, as do Lady Bowthorpe and Mother Earth, but back to a mile ALCOHOL FREE (e/w) can also go well having found 1m2f too far in the Juddmonte International last time out at York. Before that she was a nice winner of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and also took the Coronation Stakes here at Ascot in June, so the track is fine.

3.50 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

19/19 – Won at least 4 times previously
17/19 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
17/19 – Aged 5 or younger
17/19 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
17/19 – Won over 1m2f previously
17/19 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/19 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/19 – Won their last race
8/19 – Raced at either Longchamp (5) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/19 – Favourites unplaced
6/19 – Returned a double-figure price
6/19 – Favourites
4/19 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/19 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 4)
2/19 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 4)
Addeybb (9/1) won the race in 2020
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 7 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another crackerjack of a race to look forward to and another that we’ve got the current champion running in – ADDEYBB (e/w). This William Haggas-trained 7 year-old is certainly holding his form well despite now being a 7 year-old and was last seen running second in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown. Softer ground would probably help his cause but having won this race by an easy 2 ¼ lengths last season, he’s hard to keep out of calculations. Epsom Derby winner – Adayar – is back in action too after last being seen running fourth in the Arc at Longchamp. He’s a course winner here, but I’m not so sure the drop back to 1m2f is in his favour and you also feel he’s had some tough races this season for a young horse – especially last time in the Arc – and will these start to catch up with him? That leaves the 127-rated MISHRIFF as the main pick. This Gosden runner has racked up over £11m in total prize month and, yes, he was only 8^th in this race 12 months ago. But he’s bounced back this season with some solid runs and was very impressive last time out at York in the Juddmonte International – winning by an easy 6l. He handles most ground and with another 2 months to freshen up since that York run will come here fresher than most. Of the rest, the improving Dubai Honour – another from the Haggas yard – is one that can go well for the e/w backers. He’s won his last three in decent fashion – including a G2 in France last time out – and deserves to take his chance in this better race.

4.30 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/7 – Winners drawn 10 or lower
6/7 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/7 – Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
2/7 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/7 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/7 – Winning favourite
Njord (15/2) won the race in 2020
Escobar (16/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/1
Trainers Jessie Harrington, Roger Varian, David O’Meara (2), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 3 of the last 7 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The John Gosden yard look to have a decent chance in this final race – the only handicap on the card. They run King Leonidas and the Frankie-ridden SUNRAY MAJOR. Both have claims, but the last-named was an eye-catching winner here at Ascot last time out over 7f and looks to have more to come. He’s up 6lbs for that win, which looks fair enough but with just four career runs to his name can be expected to have a lot more in the locker. Looking at the trends – ALL of the last 7 winners were aged 4 or 5, so this is a plus for Sunray Major, King Leonidas, Nugget, Matthew Flinders, Shelir, Dashing Roger, Johan, Kenzai Warrior, Montatham, Raise You, Sir Busker, Al Rufaa, Magical Morning, Marie’s Diamond and Symbolize – which is 15 of the 20 runners. It’s a race the David O’Meara yard have done well in before too – so their Escobar, Rhoscolyn and SHELIR (e/w) are respected too. The last-named was a tidy winner at York last time out – beating the in-form Billhilly – and despite being up 6lbs for that win heads here in great form and the cheekpieces that were on last time for the first time, remain on. Of the rest, the William Knight runner – SIR BUSKER (e/w) – is the final horse to have onside. He’s been running well all season – having been placed in the top four in 6 of his 7 races. Yes, he’s not won since June 20, but rarely runs a bad race and does seem to be well suited by Ascot. Title-chasing jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg-up.