Newbury Horse Racing Tips and Trends | Saturday 16th April 22
Newbury Horse Racing Trends on Saturday
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- Saturday Horse Racing Trends and Free Tips: 1st Oct 2022 - September 30, 2022
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- Saturday TV Trends and Tips: 17th Sept 22 - September 11, 2022
The ITV horse racing cameras are at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Dubai Duty Free Spring Trial Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track on ITV4, including the Greenham Stakes.
Like always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got these LIVE Newbury races covered from a trends and stats angle – fingers crossed they will point you in the direction of a few winners.
Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.50 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV4
18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
18/18 – Had won over 1m4f (or further) before
18/18 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/18 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Having their first run of the season
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/18 – Had raced at Newbury before
12/18 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/18 – Had won a Group race before
5/18 – Raced at Newbury last time out
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6 of the last 9 winners drawn in stalls 3 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
JUICESTORM VERDICT: This race has seen ALL of the last 18 winners aged 6 or younger – not great news for the older runners in the line-up – Raymond Tusk and Red Verdon.
ILARAAB, who comes he William Haggas stable that landed this race last year, is the only course and distance winner in the race after seeing off Max Vega by a length at the track in October. He’s got another big chance here despite having to give 3lbs to the rest.
Frankie Dettori and trainer John Gosden link up with Stowell so can be expected to be popular here – however, put needs to come back from a dire run at Newmarket last July when running last of five after sweating up.
Thunderous looks to have a leading chance too. This former Dante Stakes winner from last season has not won since but in his defence has been running in better races. He’s also a course winner and and has also been gelded since last running and the top-rated in the line-up.
The other pick though is INVITE (e/w) , who was last seen finishing 5th (of 8) in the G1 Fillies’ And Mares Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day. This race will be much easier than that and prior to that success was an eye-catching winner of a Listed race at Chester. She also gets the useful 3lbs mares’ allowance
2.25 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4
16/18 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
16/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/18 – Had won between 1-2 times before
15/18 – Having their first run of the season
14/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Drawn 5 or higher
13/18 – Came from the top three in the betting
9/18 – Had won over 7f before
8/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/18 – Won last time out
7/18 – Had won at Newbury before
6/18 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/18 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course and distance winner Jumbly was a good Listed winner last October here and has won two of her three starts so heads here with a decent chance. The Charlie Fellowes-trained Eve Lodge is another to respect after running in better races last term, while Symphony Perfect and Nazanin are others that have form in the book to give them a chance.
But the pair I like here are WILD BEAUTY and MAJESTIC GLORY (e/w). Wild Beauty represents the in-form Godolphin team and off a mark of 111 is the top-rated in the race. Top jockey, William Buick gets the ride on this Frankel filly, who was a Group One winner in Canada last term too. We also know she stays a bit further than this 7f distance, having been successful over a mile before.
The other pick – Majestic Glory – actually saw off Wild Beauty at Newmarket last term in the Sweet Solera Stakes but couldn’t build on that after. That said, she was running in slightly better contests and did was well-raced as a 2 year-old (6). She’s can be expected to be better for some time off and Ryan Moore is a plus in the saddle.
3.00 – Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV4
17/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
16/18 – Having their first run of the season
15/18 – Won at Listed class or better before
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Won between 2-4 times before
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
10/18 – Had won a Group race before
9/18 – Won last time out
9/18 – Had won over 7f before
8/18 – Had won a race at Newbury before
8/18 – Winning favourites
7/18 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Irish-trained
2/18 – Winners from stall 1
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A big chance here for Frankie Dettori, who has won this prize 4 times before. He rides – ANGEL BLEU for trainer Ralph Beckett.
This 3 year-old comes here having won her last three outings and the last two were at the highest level in G1 races over in France. She returns here at G3 level and is also running off level weights with the rest of the field – she looks the clear one to beat and can continue her upward curve.
Of the rest, Flaming Rib has a load of wins next to his name and it’s likely he still have more in the locker, but, for me, the Richard Hannon runner Lusail and Perfect Power. for Richard Fahey, are the main dangers to the pick.
3.35 – Highclere Throughbred Racing 30th Anniversary Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4
18/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
18/18 – Won no more than 4 times before (flat)
17/18 – Aged 6 or younger
15/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/18 – Won over at least 1m before
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times before (flat)
14/18 – Rated between 85-98
13/18 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/18 – Unplaced last time out
11/18 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Had run at Newbury before
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer (2 of last 7)
1/18 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tough race to finish the LIVE ITV4 races, with 17 horses heading to post. In past runnings we’ve had 15 of the last 18 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old – so, this is a positive tick for Saleymm, Irish Admiral, The Kodi Kid, Animal Instinct, Cu Chulainn, Etonian, Isla Kai, Modern News, Rogue Bear, Teodolina and The Turpinator.
Then, horses that are drawn in double figure draws have also got a good record in this race – winning 13 of the last 18. With that in mind, and looking at the horses already mentioned – Etonian, The Kodi Kid, Cu Chulainn and SALEYMM are the ones all drawn high.
The last-named of those – Saleymm – comes from the William Haggas yard that have a 31% record with their 4+ year-olds at the course and will be much fitter after a good second at Doncaster in March. He’s lso up just a pound for that run here.
Cu Chulainn could go well at a nice price on handicap debut for the Brian Meehan stable. This 4 year-old was good enough to run in a Listed race last time at Lingfield. That was only on his third outing too so should have more to come. Has been freshened up with a winter break and top apprentice – Georgia Dobie rides to take off a handy 3lbs.
Rogue Bear, Modern News, Migration are others to respect, but the other main pick is IRISH ADMIRAL, who is also from the William Haggas team. This 5 year-old will be better for a fourth at Doncaster last time out in the Lincoln Handicap. Was only beaten 2 lengths that day and gets in here off the same mark. The cheekpieces are on today too and Tom Marquand takes over in the saddle.
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