Trading Focus – World Cup Internationals (31st Aug/1st Sept)

World Cup Internationals Trading Tips

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Thursday 31st August

World Cup Qualification Trading Focus

Group A

France v Netherlands

In what is one of the toughest qualifying groups, at least one of France, Netherlands or Sweden will miss out and only one is sure of a place in Russia. At present Sweden top the group on goal difference but only three points separate these three so this game is crucial. Sweden have three tough away games left from four and France have the easiest games left so a draw here would not be a disaster but they will play to win. Netherlands are still not the force of old but with the way that games fall they should get second place and a play-off place. France won in Amsterdam and should win here, and the only other two recent meetings today were friendlies which the French won home and away. France to win but they have been heavily backed this week and stand around 1.62 (8/13) which some may find a little short. If you prefer something more speculative, try France to win 2-1, 9.00 (8/1) and 3-1, 15.00 (14/1) as they have conceded in nine of the last twelve tournament qualification games.

Group H

Cyprus v Bosnia Herzegovina

Not a game that I would normally get involved in but looking at the stats and the odds, I’m not sure that the bookmakers have this totally right. Cyprus are no great shakes but two recent confidence boosting wins against Gibraltar and a draw with Estonia means they will be full of confidence at home. Bosnia are the better side but odds of 1.50 (1/2) away from home are hardly value. These two met in the Euro Championship qualifying two years ago and this fixture ended 2-3 where Cyprus led 2-1. The only other meetings today were a 2-0 home win for Bosnia and a 2-1 win for Cyprus in Bosnia. I think the best call in this match is Over 2.5 goals which is available at 2.05 (21/20) and offers some value.

Friday 1st September

Group F

Lithuania v Scotland

This ended 1-1 in Glasgow with the Scots grabbing a late equaliser, without which their slender second place hopes would have all but disappeared. They still probably need at least ten points from four games and this is a must win. The games between the two are usually tight, five of the seven meetings today since 2003 were Under 2.5 goals and they have at least won in Lithuania before. The game has draw written all over it unless Scotland can grab the first goal and then defend in numbers. I certainly couldn’t recommend anyone backing Scotland at odds on so the call has to be a small stake on the correct score 1-1 with a view to trading it for a green book.

Slovakia v Slovenia

These two are probably fighting out for the runners up spot unless England collapse which is unlikely. Slovakia currently hold that position one point ahead of Slovenia so this is a real “six pointer”, victory for either side will put one foot into the qualifying position. Slovenia have won all three meetings today so far so that is in their favour and at a general price of 4.00 (3/1) they could be worth chancing. Preference for me would be to Lay Slovakia at 2.05 (21/20) which keeps the draw on our side.