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La Liga
The big game of the weekend is El Derbi madrileño, not as high profile as El Clasico but hugely important just the same and this result could have a big effect on the La Liga title.
Saturday 8th April
3.15 Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid
The first stat to throw into the equation here is that Atletico have won on their last three league visits to the Bernabeu and the Real players will be aware of that. It heaps added pressure as they must win to stay top and Simeone would love nothing more than to dent their title hopes. Real are unbeaten at home winning twelve of fifteen and scoring in all the games. They have scored two or more in thirteen of those games and kept five clean sheets. Atletico have won seven and drawn five of fifteen away scoring in ten and conceding in only seven. Atletico will be tactically spot on for this, can Real break then down? There has been no draw in this fixture in the last seven meetings today in the Bernabeu and only three of those seven games were Over 2.5 goals. One other stat I looked at was for there to be a red card, assuming, wrongly, that a fiery fixture would see reds. In fact there has not been a red card in the league in the past ten meetings today, although there was a sending off in a Champions League meeting. At odds of around 2.40 for a red card it is a simple pass. So where do we go? As you know I’m not a fan of betting Unders as you don’t win until the final whistle but I do think this will be close and Atletico to win 1-0 is a tentative correct score. The downside is a Real goal will flatten us so we could also add a bet on Real to win 2-1 and hopefully those two scores should allow us trading options. Real to win 2-1 and Atletico to win 1-0 for trading.
7.45 Malaga v Barcelona
This is another fixture that leans towards Unders on past stats. In the head to head only three of the last eight were Over 2.5 goals. Anyone who saw Barcelona in the second half at Granada will know that it is risky to play Unders when they are involved although we were able to trade for a nice profit last week. Malaga had a good win in midweek but this will be tough and in looking just at the head to head in Malaga we find that four of the last six were Over so perhaps we should leave it alone. If you really need an interest try correct scores 3-1 and 4-1 for Barca to small stakes.
Sunday 9th April
3.15 Celta Vigo v Eibar
Celta are strong at home but have had a very busy week, playing Monday, Thursday and Sunday and they have a Europa League Quarter Final next week. They are safe in the league and cannot get a European place so they may be worth taking on here. The two have met just five times with two wins each and a draw, four of the five being Under. Chance a Lay of the home side as Eibar are in a bit of form losing just one of their last seven away, with three wins and scoring in six of them.
7.45 Las Palmas v Real Betis
Las Palmas have struggled of late but are solid at home losing just two of fifteen with five draws. They have kept five clean sheets and scored in all bar three. There have only been three recent meetings today, all home wins and all to nil. Betis have conceded in all away games winning three of fourteen and scoring in nine of them. Las Palmas to win or if you don’t like betting teams to win, both teams to score is an option.
Monday 10th April
7.45 Real Sociedad v Sporting Gijon
Sociedad have had a bit of a blip recently and have not won at home in their last four. They have won only seven of fifteen but Gijon’s away record is dreadful, one win in fifteen although they did manage five draws. They are pretty negative on the road, scoring in nine and conceding in nine but Soc should be able to break them down. Seven recent head to head saw six go Over 2.5 goals and I like that as the best option here. Try Over 2.5 goals.
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