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La Liga El Clásico Sunday 23rd April
19.45 Real Madrid v Barcelona
This is a real title decider with Barcelona needing three points to keep their hopes alive. The good news for them is that they do have a good recent record in the Bernabeu so all is not lost. Real could in theory settle for a point as they have a game in hand and are three points clear with seven games left, Barcelona six. They will not do that however as they will want to finish off their arch rivals and win the title as soon as possible. One thing in the home sides favour is that they will have an extra day to recover following both sides Champions League Quarter Final second legs in midweek. On the team news, Gareth Bale may struggle to recover from a knock for Real and Mascherano is a doubt for Barcelona with Neymar ruled out through suspension. So who wins?
Both have had fantastic seasons, as usual but Real are deservedly top of the table. At home Real have played 16, Won 12, Drawn 4 Lost 0. Barcelona away have played 16, Won 10, Drawn 3 and Lost 3. Real Madrid have scored in all their home games, conceding in 11 whilst Barca have scored in 15 away and also conceded in 11. Real are unbeaten in their last 11 in all competitions but Barca have lost 3 of their last 7 in all competitions.
When we look at goals we find that 12 of Real’s 16 home games have been Over 2.5 goals and 11 of Barcelona’s 16 away games the same. It looks like goals must be the order of the day but which market do we play?
There has been a goal in the first eleven minutes in the last five league meetings today in Madrid so that is also an angle to look at. There has also been a red card in four of the last eight league meetings today, three for Real and one for Barcelona.
The last ten head to head overall in the league have seen nine go Over 2.5 goals but I believe that for this fixture it is more important to look at the head to head statistics in Madrid which I feel are more relevant. In the last ten in Madrid, Barcelona won five and Real four with a single draw, seven were Over 2.5 and six Over 3.5 goals. In the last five in Madrid, Barcelona won three and Real two, five were Over 2.5 and four Over 3.5 goals. The scores in the last ten in Madrid were, most recent first, 0-4, 3-1, 3-4, 2-1, 1-3, 1-1, 0-2, 2-6, 4-1 and 2-0.
In conclusion I think Barcelona might win and make Real sweat for the title. Bale could be a bigger miss than Neymar as Barcelona have more attacking options. In looking at the goals markets, it could be argued that around 1.40 for Over 2.5 goals is value as I make it a 1.35 shot but I prefer to chance Over 3.5 goals at around 2.00 (Evs). For those of you who want to bet on the first goalscorer and are looking at Messi or Ronaldo, consider this before taking the odds on offer. They can be backed at 9/2 (5.50) and 7/2 (4.50) respectively which if dutched by backing both works out at just under 6/4 (2.50). If you then consider that in the last twelve league meetings today between the two, they have scored the first goal on just two occasions, once each. That makes the odds available poor value unless you are of the belief that one of them is “due” in which case you will clearly take the prices even though they are well under. Suarez at 5/1 (6.00) is much better value as he has scored the first goal in two of the last three meetings today.
My thoughts:
Barcelona to win the match 21/10 (3.10)
Barcelona to win and Over 3.5 goals 11/2 (6.50)
Suarez to score at any time 5/4 (2.25)
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