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Championship Trading Focus – Plenty going on in the Championship this weekend and we’ve got the best of the games covered with what we think are the best trading angles.
Just one thing to note, whilst we offer advice here each week, remember it is a trading advice so consider that when getting involved. If we suggest laying a short priced side and they go behind at any point, even after a few minutes, then we can trade out for a profit as that is what it is all about.
We are at that time of year when some teams need to win and others don’t so we need to tread a little more carefully and also be aware that bookmakers tend to over react when teams need to win. We can sometimes take advantage as contrary to popular belief, teams with nothing to play for, often try just as hard with new contracts, transfers etc to think of.
Sunday 6th May 2018
Derby v Barnsley 13:30
This will be a banker home win for many on this week’s coupon but a look at the stats suggest it might not be that easy. With Barnsley needing a result to avoid relegation in case Burton get a result at Preston and Derby almost certainly needing a point to be in the play-offs, this game could become tense, particularly if it is level for a long time or if one team takes the lead and tries to hold on. With so many different scenarios that could develop, we probably should be leaving the game alone. Another possibility is that the game is level and Burton are losing at Preston, then a draw would suit both teams and a “non-competitive” end to the game could ensue. I am very tempted to Lay Derby at around 1.60 for a small stake as they will be nervous, they have failed in this position before, and I can easily see this game petering out into a draw. The other option, again for a small stake, is to bet the 1-1 correct score, although Derby have won the last three meetings today at Pride Park, Barnsley managed a draw on their two previous visits.
Cardiff v Reading 13:30
Automatic promotion is in Cardiff’s own hands, a win and they will be in the Premier League. Reading are out of form with three losses in their last four games but they know that a point may be good enough depending on other results. Whether they are good enough however, is a different matter. I cannot believe that Warnock will let his tem slip up now and take Cardiff to win but how do we take advantage of that? Cardiff have won eight of their last nine at home, losing only to Wolves. The problem we have is that if they lead, Cardiff could easily try and see the game out, but just as likely is that they go for more goals. No good trying to second guess so I recommend we go Over 2.5 goals, which covers a number of options, including Reading scoring first but I think that 1.73 is a fair price and the reverse fixture in December ended 2-2.
Bolton v Nottingham Forest 13:30
For a team that needs a win to give themselves a chance of staying up, Bolton could not be in worse form, with six defeats and a draw from their last seven games. There best chance is that they are playing a Forest side who have “nothing to play for” on paper, but some of the players will be playing for contracts so they should not be written off. Forest have won two and drawn one of their last four and they are a better side than Bolton. I think they might relax and that could spell danger for a poor Bolton side. I am prepared to chance Forest at 4.50 to send Bolton down. Alternatively a Lay of Bolton at 1.90 for those who prefer to keep the draw on side is perfectly acceptable.
(Odds are subject to change)
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