Championship Trading Focus: 22nd July 2020

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Wednesday 22nd July 2020

Championship Trading Focus

The final round of games, but still one or two issues to be decided, and then the play-offs to come.

West Brom v QPR

West Brom thought they had blown automatic promotion, but Brentford losing at Stoke means a win here will see them go up. Only three recent meetings today at this level, and West Brom have won all three including a 7-1 thrashing at home last season. I think they will bounce back, even allowing for QPR beating Millwall, and the bookmakers think so too, as they are 1.25 to win. Clearly, we cannot bet at that price, but I think West Brom to win and Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is worth just a small interest. I think they will go for it early on.

Brentford v Barnsley

Brentford just must win and hope, but opponents Barnsley are fighting to avoid relegation and grabbed a late winner against Forest. Brentford have to forget the disappointment of the Stoke game, however Barnsley have a good record in the five head to head at this level, winning and drawing on their two visits to London, and losing just one of the five. This game could be dependent on what is happening at West Brom, if it is still level and West Brom are winning, Barnsley may have a chance, so a small Lay of Brentford at 1.36 is the trading angle.

Cardiff v Hull

Can Cardiff hold off Swansea for the play-off place? Hull need a win and hope results go their way for their slim chance to avoid the drop. They have lost five on the bounce and Cardiff have won their last two. Three recent meetings today have seen two Cardiff wins and a draw. Hull are poor and struggle to score, so as Cardiff have been scoring in their last couple of games, to win -1 on the handicap at 2.00 looks a fair bet.

Luton v Blackburn

Can Luton pull off a miracle escape? Blackburn have nothing to play for except pride, but that can sometimes be a dangerous thing for the opposition as players look to impress with next season in mind. Luton won 2-1 at Blackburn back in September, the only relevant meeting, and have now lost just one in eleven. The problem is that they could win and still go down. They must concentrate on the job in hand, although 1.80 could not be regarded as value. I can see goals here and the 1.80 about Over 2.5 goals appeals as a better trading option.

Reading v Swansea

Swansea must rely on Cardiff slipping up, but all they can do is go for the win, although 1.91 away from home is too short, even allowing for the fact that Reading have lost their last two. Swansea won 4-1 here last season and the two drew 1-1 at Swansea back in September. Chance Swansea to win and both teams to score at 4.0.

Leeds v Charlton

Champions Leeds take on relegation battlers Charlton, for whom a point might be enough. Leeds old boy Lee Bowyer is Charlton manager and the conspiracy theorists will be out with the “Leeds will let them win” statements. I do not see a Bielsa side letting anyone win and Charlton have not won in six so it could be argued that Leeds at 1.70 are value. I would rather look elsewhere though and the head to head shows Charlton have not lost to Leeds in six. This could easily be a draw and trading correct scores around 1-1 and 2-2 might be the way to go.

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