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Championship Play-offs (second legs)
Tuesday 14th May
West Brom v Aston Villa (agg score 1-2)
As with the first leg, there is little relevant form to go on at this level, the sides ending level 2-2 on their meeting in December. Looking at meetings today in recent years in the Premier league and Championship, five of the last six head to head at The Hawthorns ended level, with three of them being 2-2 and two being goalless. For a long period of the first leg, it looked as though West Brom would frustrate Villa, but two late goals and a red card for West Brom, saw the hosts emerge with a 2-1 lead. The loss of Gayle for the second leg is huge for West Brom and Villa showed enough to make me think that they will be able to control the match at The Hawthorns. I think they will at least grab a draw but could see them winning, as West Brom look to negate the deficit. The two options to choose between are Laying West Brom at around 2.70 or trading the correct scores around 1-1 and 1-2 looking for a green book. Preference is for the latter at small stakes.
Wednesday 15th May
Leeds v Derby (agg score 1-0)
The last six head to head at Elland Road ended 2-0, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2, 2-0 and 1-1 so Leeds have had the better in recent seasons. Anyone who saw the first leg, will not fail to have been impressed by Leeds who looked dangerous every time they went forward. The only surprise for me is that they have not gone back to Elland Road with a bigger lead. Derby lacked a cutting edge and with them having to score here, they could be picked off by the home side. Stats suggest that Derby have more than a mountain to climb as no side has lost at home and then qualified in these play-offs. The only reason I am not recommending a Leeds win at 1.80 (1.75 in most places) is because they don’t have to win and if it was late on and still level, they may close up shop. It is not a game I will be trading because of that but small stakes on 1-0 and 2-0 may pay dividends as a trading option.
Note: Odds are subject to change.
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