Bundesliga Trading Focus (26th-27th May 2020)

Bundesliga Football Tips

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Tuesday 26th May 2020

Dortmund v Bayern Munich

This could decide the title where a win for Bayern would leave Dortmund with a mountain to climb. The last four head to head were all home wins. Dortmund have won two, lost two and drawn one of the last five league meetings today at home. Purely on the recent games, Dortmund should probably be favourites, but Bayern love the challenge and will raise their game, and the bookmakers have them a shade of odds on. Whether that is any value is open to question and I certainly will not be investing any hard earned at those prices. A better option might be to Lay the Draw in the Half-Time market at around 2.50 as the last seven games have had a first half goal and did not end level, since a 0-0 draw in Dortmund in March 2016.

Dortmund 85% Over 2.5 goals

Bayern Munich 81% Over 2.5 goals

Leverkusen v Wolfsburg

This game cannot be low on goals so back 0-0!! Six of the last seven head to head were Over 2.5 goals and there were five away wins and two draws. Three of the last four meetings today in Leverkusen ended Over 3.5 goals. A Leverkusen win would push them closer to the Champions League qualification and they were one of the in-form sides before the break. They continued in that vein with a 4-1 win in Bremen. Wolfsburg had been unbeaten in six before the enforced break. Over 3.5 goals at 2.50 is a possible trading angle.

Leverkusen 62% Over 2.5 goals

Wolfsburg 46% Over 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen v Moenchengladbach

Both teams scored in the last four meetings today and five of the last eight head to head were Over 2.5 goals. Moenchengladbach have won four of their last five visits to Bremen, three of those wins to Nil. Bremen are not a side to rely on but Gladbach are a solid outfit and even at 1.80 are probably worth including in multi bets. I have looked long and hard for a real value bet with both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both possibilities but not screaming out to be backed. It might be worth chancing Moenchengladbach to win and both teams to score at 3.20.

Werder Bremen 76% Over 2.5 goals

Moenchengladbach 69% Over 2.5 goals

Wednesday 27th May 2020

RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin

Seven meetings today at this level with six wins for Leipzig and one for Hertha. There have been plenty of goals in these games, six of seven were Over 2.5 goals but five of seven went Over 4.5 goals. Rather than trying to get too in depth here, it seems sensible to stay with the goals angle and Over 3.5 goals at 2.30 looks the best trading option.

RB Leipzig 69% Over 2.5 goals

Hertha Berlin 77% Over 2.5 goals

Hoffenheim v Koln

Six recent head to head with four wins for Hoffenheim and two draws. Four of the six games were Over 2.5 goals, but Koln have only scored three goals in those games. Hoffenheim are not a good side to be with having not won in six, but they will still have supporters at 2.38 and that could be a back to Lay. I would rather trade Under 2.5 goals at 2.40 with a view to trading out at some point in the first half for a profit

Hoffenheim 65% Over 2.5 goals

Koln 73% Over 2.5 goals

Dusseldorf v Schalke

Only three relevant recent head to head with one win apiece and one draw, two of the three games were away wins. Both sides need a win here, for Schalke it is needed if they are to obtain a European place next season and for Dusseldorf three points would be very welcome in their continuing battle against relegation. Before the enforced break, Dusseldorf had steadied the ship a little, with just one loss in six games, four of those were draws. They are hard to break down and with Schalke only managing two goals in their last seven games before the break, this has the makings of a low scoring draw. Try trading the correct score market around 0-0 and 1-1 for a green book.

Dusseldorf 58% Over 2.5 goals

Schalke 58% Over 2.5 goals