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Bundesliga 2019/20 Season Update
The current position in the Bundesliga is probably the most exciting of all the Top European Leagues with the title far from decided, and the European places are also a long way from being sorted too.
At the bottom, Werder Bremen and Paderborn are in big trouble whilst Dusseldorf will also need a huge turnaround in fortunes, if they are to escape the relegation play-offs.
One of the big questions we will need to consider, if we do get a resumption on the football, is what level of fitness and form each team will be at. It will be impossible to know which teams will come out of this flying, and which will come out of the blocks slowly, as happens in the first few weeks of a normal new season.
It may be wrong to assume that the bigger clubs will benefit from this break because after all, in theory, all clubs should have been in the same lockdown. Is it reasonable to assume that clubs like Bayern, Dortmund and Leipzig will be better prepared or be able to get back to normal quicker?
The resources at their disposal would suggest that the answer is probably yes, but the players will all be going back on the pitch at the same time and however well they have kept themselves fit, none of them from any of the clubs will be match fit and that suggests that it could be more of a level playing field. Does that mean that we should then consider that the pricing of the initial set of games could offer us some value?
As things stand, Bayern are due to play in Dortmund in the first game if there is a resumption. Before the break, Bayern were flying and had been unbeaten in eleven, winning ten of those. Dortmund had won seven of their last eight so what had promised to be a cracker, may well now be a lot tighter as both sides. Will the break have evened up the betting odds? We will have to wait and see.
A couple of statistics going forward are that 42% of goals are scored in the first half and 58% in the second half with 14% of goals in the first fifteen minutes of a game and 25% of goals in the last fifteen minutes. Those last set of stats based on the time of goals, are very similarly mirrored in both La Liga and the Championship.
Statistics table 2019/2020 season England, Germany, Spain, Italy and France up to the enforced break mid-March
A few stats from the season so far in six of the best leagues in Europe and most of the stats will probably be as you would expect. It is no surprise that the lowest amount of average goals and the least percentage of Over 2.5 and Over 3.5 goals are in France and Spain, with the most goals clearly in the Bundesliga in Germany.
One stat that does stand out, that I have been aware of for many years, is the low % of away wins in La Liga in Spain, with even the top sides often struggling to win on the road.
Two stats that were not immediately obvious to me, were the high % of away wins in Serie A in Italy and the average goals per game there being nearly 3, which indicates that Italian football is not the negative game it was in the past. Obviously, these stats should only be used as a guideline, but they can be useful when deciding whether something is value.
|Home win %||Away Win %||Draw %||Average Goals per game||Over 2.5 goals %||Over 3.5 goals %|
|England Premier League||45||30||25||2.72||52||28|
|Spain La Liga||48||24||28||2.54||47||22|
|Italy Serie A||40||37||23||2.91||59||32|
|France Ligue 1||48||27||25||2.52||47||25|
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