Betfair Trading & Risk

• Author
• Recent Posts

Man of Mystery

I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to Adam Todd's BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

Latest posts by Man of Mystery (see all)

• The TopTrap Greyhound Profit And Loss Account On Betfair - March 17, 2022
• Betfair Best Execution – 11 Requested & Filled At 320 - January 16, 2022
• BTB System e-book - March 13, 2015

Unlike matched betting and arbing, although it can be profitable, Betfair Trading IS NEVER RISK FREE.

With free bets, arbing, casino bonuses, if offers and free bingo etc you always have a safety net of the free money to offset any losses. You can see the odds (or know the EV) of the offer, and use maths to work out the probability of making a profit. Some are more risky than others, but you know the score before you start.

Betfair Trading is completely different. All Betfair Trading is a gamble that the market will do what you think it will do, and really there is no reason why it necessarily should. In some cases you have a safety net of sorts (unless Betfair crashes or your internet goes down) in that you can trade out for a loss, and in some cases you can suddenly get left high and dry and lose all your money. Remember that most in-play markets have a delay attached and a critical goal or market move can happen while you are waiting for your bet to be submitted. Bear in mind also the trader’s temptation to wait for the situation to improve, during which time it may get steadily worse.

Circumstances where you can trade out for a loss – Risk category E

Pre-race Betfair Trading

Pre match Betfair Trading

In play match odds Betfair Trading (except near the end of a match) – includes sports such as tennis, cricket etc.

In play correct score Betfair Trading where you have insurance on another market eg over/under

In play winner markets in sports such as golf where there are times when the odds move relatively slowly.

Circumstances where you may lose all your stake very suddenly – Risk category F

Pre-race or pre-match Betfair Trading near the off, where the market does not go in play.

In play horse racing

In play match odds Betfair Trading near the end of a match, where a few points can finish the match.

In play correct score or unders Betfair Trading or scalping where a goal or consecutive goals may wipe out all your positions.

In play sudden death type events, eg Boxing, where a knockout punch at any time can finish the match.

Successful Betfair Trading done by professional Betfair Traders can look extremely easy, even when it is done in a way which involves a high degree of risk. Always assume that there is the possibility of losing anything up to all of your stake/liability, and never bet with more than you can afford to lose.

Some comments on the risks of Betfair Trading

The risk in Betfair Trading is pretty subjective. As long as you have a defined stop win and more importantly a stop loss based on the % of your Betfair Trading bank before you enter any trade and stick to it then the risk becomes an acceptable one in my eyes.

It is when discipline fails and one doesn’t follow the plan that the whole thing comes crashing down.

The other risks centred around technology, distraction and system failures are true for any aspect of back / lay betting, so even when you are matched betting these need to be catered for. No good getting the qualifying bet on with the bookies only to find you can’t lay it off because the dog has chewed thru your internet router cable! So you got to have a plan B.