Trading Football Correct Scores

• Author
• Recent Posts

Man of Mystery

I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to Adam Todd's BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

Latest posts by Man of Mystery (see all)

• The TopTrap Greyhound Profit And Loss Account On Betfair - March 17, 2022
• Betfair Best Execution – 11 Requested & Filled At 320 - January 16, 2022
• BTB System e-book - March 13, 2015

An explanation and illustration of Gentari’s correct score trading method as discussed on BetSeventyTwo forum.

Two videos go with this discussion – West Brom Part 1 and Part 2.

Trading Football Correct Scores by Gentari » Thu Apr 01, 2010 1:43 pm

I have been paper trading and small stakes trading a way of making profits from the higher scorelines on major football matches.

Before I go into detail I will put a taster here and see if anyone would like to know more. I would also like to point out that this is NOT RISK FREE!!!

I was like everyone else taking a view pre match and hoping to trade around the goals to end up in profit. While doing that I was stung by 2 Champions League matches where the teams I expected to do well ended up getting well beaten. At that point I decided to look for a different strategy.

So having a decent knowledge of football and a love for watching the game I decided to try something different.

There are pleny of things that go into the strategy and each game is different and often played on gut instinct as well as a decent amount of checking stats etc pre match.

Last night the Arsenal v barcalona game looked like an ideal candidate. 2 flowing teams who can attack and score at will with defences that are not perfect so for me an opportunity to see some goals – the crux of my strategy.

Here is the result:

if you would like to know more then let me know here and I will answer questions and give advice. Remember I am in the chat often, so pop in and say hi.

PLEASE REMEMBER THIS IS NOT RISK FREE, MY BIGGEST WIN SO FAR IS £102 AND MY BIGGEST LOSS £47.

by boycee » Thu Apr 01, 2010 7:29 pm

Good stuff Gentari. I for one would be interested in how you play these markets. The chat room may be the best home for this type of thing, but perhaps to kick us off, you could do some high profile games on the main forum first.

I have tried to do this myself, in fact I am doing the Benfica v Liverpool match as I type. Basically I backed each team 2-1 before kick off and I have greened up after the 1st goal. Are you playing this match?

by hudders » Fri Apr 02, 2010 12:58 am

I think talking thru trading would work alot better in the chat area myself mate rather than the forum. Alot can happen in a short space of time as I’m sure you’ll appreciate & posting inplay trade details on the forum things would get missed.

by boycee » Fri Apr 02, 2010 9:33 am

Yes absolutely, chat room for live trading.

What I meant was the detail of the strategy. For instance that game above, can you go through your thought process and which bets were struck and in what order during the 90mins?

by Gentari » Fri Apr 02, 2010 6:35 pm

Thanks for the replies guys, I did have a little look at the Fulham and Liverpool matches, but was not sure about them so left well alone.

I have just traded the West Brom v Leicester games and did a video too – made some cash too . I will sort out the commentary and get it uploaded on Monday I hope (don’t hold me to timings as lots happening at the moment)

I agree the best place to go through things is the chat, I will try be in there for most major matches (that are live on telly).

I would always look at big matches, the only ones I do in the Championship are usually the leaders, I chose West Brom as I had time to trade it without interruption (took daughter to the park earlier) and checking the stats they were always likely to score at home against a side on the back of 4 straight defeats.

Boycee, I trade these games in play, I DO NOT make a bet before the kick off. I have found that the value starts to come through after 15 to 20 minutes.

As you will see in the video I backed 3-1 and AUQ during the first half up to a stake level I am comfortable with. Once goals go in I lay of my liability and then look for another goal to start making decent money. Later on I also look to use some of me green on higher odds again looking for another goal. West Brom delivered a 3rd goal which was nice letting me take £35 for 90 minutes work

by Gentari » Fri Apr 02, 2010 8:17 pm

I thought I would share my P & L graph with you guys.

I have used 10% max stake for pretty much all my games so far and feel it allows a big enough stake with small risk to bank. While I trade I am acutely aware of the fact that I may lose my full stake if goals do not go in as expected, the win outway the losses

by Gentari » Sun Apr 04, 2010 5:42 pm

QUICK UPDATE:

Played the following matches this weekend and looking at Real Madrid currently (odds too low for now)

Man Utd v Chelsea: +£45.52 – Pretty even match, trading helped out by the late goals.

Arsenal v Wolves: -£40.58 – Arsenal all over Wolves, but Wolves held strong, added time winner by Arsenal not enough to rescue any position.

Barcalona v Ath Bilbao: No trade Barca scored too early

Everton v West Ham: +£93.86 – Pretty even game, amazed that West Ham didn’t go on to win. Green £10 early and then played with the green on some bigger scores as a goal seemed like it was coming. Managed to get £2 @ 1000 on 3-3 and £4 on 2-2 @ 20 and 30, so very happy when the goals went in towards the end.

Weekend total so far £98.80

by mikeymp » Sun Apr 04, 2010 10:34 pm

Was pretty happy too gent as I had my free billys tenner on over 2.5 goals x draw at 13

by Gentari » Mon Apr 05, 2010 8:12 am

Top result Mikey, well done

by AlistairH » Mon Apr 05, 2010 10:02 am

Always nice to see a graph heading up the way Gentari. Good stuff.

by Gentari » Tue Apr 06, 2010 6:01 pm Thanks Alistair

I find it useful to track my p & l on a match by match basis, but putting the results together is great. Ups and downs, but the overall trend is great.

I am very happy with progress since going full stake. I am taking hits, but the wins are getting serious now.

I am pretty confident in the way I am trading these matches.

by Gentari » Tue Apr 06, 2010 6:02 pm

NOTE RE VIDEO: Hectic day yesterday and today, will sort tomorrow and send to Lee for upload asap

by corner123 » Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:20 pm

The first of the videos has now been published – apologies for the delay. When Gentari emailed the video to Lee it got lost in the virtual post!

by AlistairH » Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:14 am

Excellent video Gentari. Looking forward to part 2.

by Gentari » Sat Apr 24, 2010 5:49 am

Thanks Alistair, I have been very busy recently and travelling too, will update the second part of the video asap and get it loaded.

I would in the meantime suggest that anyone trying this out look at the second leg European matches coming up, not the easiest to find stats for, but should be some nice ones if you look at what is at stake.

Good Luck

by corner123 » Fri May 14, 2010 10:14 pm

The 2nd video has now been uploaded.

by AlistairH » Sun May 16, 2010 7:09 pm

Just watched part 2. Excellent use of built-in first half profit. In all likelihood, I would’ve greened up at half time and walked away and not even considered playing the 2nd half.

A quick question if I may regarding entry points…

When I’ve traded footy in the past, usually the over 2.5 goals rather than CS, I’ve tended to do the same thing in that I wait until my chosen game has got under way and ‘drip feed’ bets into the market in order to catch the odds as they increase while the score remains 0-0. However, what I have frequently found is that either, a goal goes in before all, if any, of my bets are taken or the score remains 0-0 resulting in all my bets being taken. Each of these scenarios causes it’s own problems.

The first results in little or no profit when a goal is scored and the second does not result in the odds coming in enough when the first goal goes in sometime into the 2nd half. Both result in me trading out when I think it prudent to do so for either a scratched trade or a loss. The game would frequently go on to have 2 or 3 late goals after closing the trade further adding to the frustation. In the end, I stopped trading the over 2.5 goals market. Indeed, I don’t trade football at all at the moment.

Given any particular game, having analysed the stats and decided there will be goals, at what point do you enter the market time wise and how do you decide the odds at which to place the bet knowing that asking for too high odds me very well see your bet unmatched when a goal goes in?

by Gentari » Mon May 17, 2010 4:52 am

For me the entry point is flexible, but in most instances I am looking for 3-1 or 1-3 (dependant on which team is likely to score most) to get to about 25.

For me the pre match odds are nearer 14 in most instances so getting to 25 before the first goal goes in gives a great return. I have found that this strategy can be scuppered by quick goals, but nothing lost if that happens as I will often just write off the match as a no trade

The reason I do not do a 0-0 cover bet is due to the situation described above. As I am looking for matches where there are going to be goals, I have been caught out with my 0-0 cover bet being lost before any of my money was matched on the higher scores before a goal goes in.

So for the above reason I take no insurance

I am sure there can be a trade off in another market, Unders for instance, but I have found that using good money management strategy has served me very well. It is not often that Manchester United v Burnley will result in a 0-0, but if I am lucky it may be 0-0 at half time which is my HOLY GRAIL. My best result was Real Madrid v Sporting Gijon, a match I watched and just knew there was going to be a hat full of goals, Real Madrid were all over Sporting, but couldn’t score…

Half Time – Real Madrid 0 – 0 Sporting Gijon

Full Time – Real Madrid 3 – 1 Sporting Gijon

Sporting – Barral (53)

Real – Van der Vaart (55)

Real – Xabi Alonso (57)

Real – Higuaín (68)

Gijon scored not long after half time against the run of play and Real Madrid then clicked into gear, over £100 made on a game where my total risk was £22

I hope that covers your question Alistair, if not ask away and good luck

by AlistairH » Mon May 17, 2010 10:25 pm

Thanks for the feedback Gentari.

I plan to set up a small £100 bank and do this to 10% stakes with a view to getting some experience in place in time for the 2010/11 season. I’ve given up on trading the dogs and concentrating on the horses but I need something to get my teeth into during the winter months and this seems like a very good option.

by Gentari » Thu Aug 26, 2010 8:06 am

OK I am back on the footy trading and it has gone fairly well so far. PLease pop into the chat when ever there is a big match on as I will be there as often as my dodgy internet connection allows.

I traded the Spurs game last night, but as expected the early goal meant I couldn’t get in when I wanted, I did manage a scratch trade on 3-1 that never came off, but nothing lost there.

I am seriously looking at the Man City game tonight and will be in the Chattynar doing the match so pop in.

Again we could be scuppered by the early goals. Man City are at home and on fire recently, they are already 1-0 up from the first leg and from what I have read their opponents were rubbish in that game, but managed to hold City (equally poor) until midway through the second half when new signing Balotelli came on to score a debut goal.

The hope is that Man City rest a few stars (and play the less well known ones ) meaning the team will take a while to click and we can get on the high scorelines before goals go in.

For me I will be looking to get a bit on 3-0, 3-1 & AUQ after about 20 minutes, the odds will be very small at the off and I like to see how the teams are playing to get an idea wether we are in for a bore draw or not.

by Gentari » Sat Aug 28, 2010 4:54 am

Quick Update:

Traded the Man City European game and scratched the trade, was looking to get money onto 3-1 and AUQ with a tiny amount on 3-0 which I was doing in £2 bets as the first half went on, I managed to get some on, but only half my stake of £25 by the time Shaun Wright-Phillps scored in the 43rd minute.

Once his goal went in I laid off my liability and waited for more goals, but try as they might nothing really happened I took the green available after the second goal, which wasn’t much and stuck it on AUQ in the hope we would get more goals, but alas the mega rich Man CIty came close, but just managed to blunder on until the whistle, so again not a lot, but an enjoyable match none the less.

The weekend will be different, with some high profile games going on, Man Utd, Chelsea and Spurs at home should be goal fests so will be looking at those games with a view to getting involved once the odds become high enough…

Again the idea is that one or more of those teams are held by the opposition for a while, normally 20 to 25 minutes gets the odds of 3-1 looking a lot better than the start price, Chelsea for instance are 13 at Betfair on the 3-1 scoreline, so I would like to see this go to at least 20 to give me reason to get involved.

So come on Stoke, West Ham and Wigan, defend for your life, for about 25 minutes, then let the flood gates open wide

by Gentari » Sat Aug 28, 2010 11:13 am

Blackburn v Arsenal – Early kick off

Will be listening on Radio Five Live and looking for Blackburn to hold up Arsenal who will be on fire after last week. Down to earth with a bump I would think at Ewood with Sam’s boys giving them a good kick straight away

So looking for an entry point around 30 minutes if no goals scored, but plenty of action, if it sounds boring and not many shots then I will save my money for the later games which should be a goal fest.

Good luck if you are trading.