The 15-40 Tennis Trading Strategy

The 15-40 Method by Tradeshark

This is based on a scalping method that doesn’t require live pictures.

I have stripped it down to simple rules that will work for anyone. The risk to your bank is also small!

I would advise using the ladder interface on Bet Trader as you can enter trades with one click. You can also see the hedge figure in the ladder interface.

You are looking for one of 2 scores…..either 15-40 or 0-40 (i.e. 2 or 3 break points) 15-40 is my favourite and also occurs more often. It offers a better price to enter the market.

If the receiving player has got himself to 40 there is a very good chance he will win one of the next 2 points. Once you see one of the qualifying scores you back the receiver (or lay the server). Green up when the break point is won.

Your greened up profit should be approximately 5% of stake used although this varies depending on at what stage in the match you are.

If the server pulls back to 40-40, hedge for a small loss ( again, about 5% or smaller)

During an average match you will get anywhere from 2 to 4 opportunities. Obviously more in 5 setters.

Rules:

15-40 or 0-40 are the ONLY entry points. DO NOT be tempted to gamble on 30-40. You will lose more often than you win

Green up after the break

If the server pulls back to 40-40 hedge for the loss and wait for the next opportunity.

If the set has gone to a tie break wait until one player is 2 mini breaks up (i.e. has won 2 points against the serve) then back that player.

Simple!

Back The Favourite

If you have an idea about who will win the match or at least perform well during the first set you can back them at the start. Using this method you can take full advantage of the drop in their price once they break their opponent’s serve. I would generally expect a player’s price to drop by half if they break serve. By that I mean if they started the match at, say, 1.60 I would expect their price after the break to be approximately 1.30 .

You then have the option of greening up after the break or wait until they win the first set for a bigger profit.

Wait For The Break

If you’re not sure who will win the match you can wait until one of the players breaks their opponents serve ad then back them. You can then have the option of waiting for them to hold their own serve and greening up or you can wait until they win the first set for a slightly bigger profit.

Of course it’s quite possible for the player you have just backed to lose their serve or go a break of serve down!

If it doesn’t go to plan….what can you do?

Here’s an account of what I did when a trade went against me.

The players were due on court at midnight. Think I fell asleep during Match of the Day and woke up around 11:50. Was really struggling to keep my eyes open and decided that the sensible thing to do was to not trade and go to bed, particularly as I had to be up at 630 to take the wife to work……..

So, mug of coffee in hand I placed my back bet…….

No-one tells you what you can do if the match doesn’t go the way you expect, other than to say, “get out of the trade as quickly as possible”. That never worked for me because that leaves you with a red figure on the favourite. The player you thought 10 minutes ago was going to win the match has lost his serve so you write him off? Bollocks to that!

Here’s how the match went for me….

I thought the match could be close but felt that Fish SHOULD win. So I backed him for 50 @ 1.65 at the start of the match.

+32.50 / -50.00 (Fish / Chardy )

He held service for 1-0

Chardy held service for 1-1

At the start of the 3rd game, Fish is serving and goes 0-30 down. At that point I lost my internet connection! Had to reset my router and by the time the connection was back Chardy had broken serve. Fish’s lay price was now at 2.48 (The price at the end of that service break will have been nearer 2.30 but I lost a couple of seconds.)

At this point I accepted that perhaps I had got it wrong and laid off half my original stake. 25 @ 2.48

(-4.50 / -25.00) The reason I do this is to keep my options open. Don’t over commit yourself too early.

Chardy had held his first service game fairly easily and expected him to have a decent chance in the match so decided to back him. 50 @ 1.69

(-54.50 / +9.50)

Now, if I was being ultra cautious I coud have left it at that but I was fueled by strong coffee and decided to increase the stake on Chardy. 50 @ 1.68

(-104.50 / +43.50)

A few seconds later I decided that I was being a bit daft and laid £50 off at 1.65 ( 3 ticks profit woo hoo! )

(-54.50 / +11.00)

Chardy held his serve to go 3-1 up.

Fish then held serve but struggled, facing a break point. 3-2 to Chardy

Chardy serving. Goes 15-40 down. I had the order window open ready to back Fish. As he won the break of serve I backed him for [email protected]

(+30.50 / -89.00)

When a match is close I always try to be on the favourite. This includes in the latter stages of a match. Obviously it doesn’t always work but it does more often than not.

Fish held serve to go 4-3

Chardy held for 4-4

Fish holds for 5-4

With the match now back on serve and the prospect of facing a tie break I had the option of hitting both hedge buttons for a red screen of about -18 quid. You must make your own decisions on this one. if I had still been green on Chardy at this stage, I would have hedged. The prices were going to be moving rapidly over the next couple of games and no guarantee as to which way.

As it turned out, Fish broke serve to win the set! His lay price dropped to 1.19

As I had placed bets on both players I would have had to hit BOTH hedge buttons to green up. I often prefer to hedge manually in this situation. So I laid Fish for 89 @1.19

(+13.59 / 0.00)

Then greened up by laying fish for 11.42 @ 1.19

Result: Green for 11.42

Given that the set didn’t run smoothly to plan, I was happy to get out with a tenner. I could have left it to run for 30 quid but that would have been gambling. Chardy had shown that he could break the fish serve.

Hope this gives you a few ideas.

What size stake to use?

This depends on several factors:

Your experience

Your bank size

The match that you’re trading

Liquidity

These sound fairly obvious but you’d be surprised how many people trade too big for their own situation.

You don’t need to use huge stakes even when you are quite proficient. I would normally use stakes around the £50 to £100 mark. Using these stakes I can bring in about £1500 a month relatively stress free.

However while you are learning to trade tennis be happy to use £10 or less. If you are completely new to Betfair trading, use minimum stakes of £2.

Some traders like to lay low priced favourites. The reason they do this is that the liability is quite low. For example, Federer is priced on Betfair at 1.05 – if your normal stake is £100 you could lay Fed and only risk £5. Obviously, chances are that he will win the match but often the big players make a slow start in the first set and their price can easily move up a few ticks and you can hedge for a profit.

If the liquidity in at the start of a match is below approximately 50K I would recommend choosing another one to trade. Lower amounts of money in the market can make it much harder to get out of a trade if the game doesn’t go your way. There will nearly always be another match with greater liquidity.

Good luck!

See the 15-40 Tennis Trading Stategy video by clicking here