Note: There are several different spreadsheets in the library for If refunds.  Choose the one you find easiest to use.

by Betformulas » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:02 pm

Download a spreadsheet for trading these offers: Refund_on_Player_etc.

This sheet is a doctored version of the Red Card Refund spreadsheet that I provided earlier.

This sheet allows input for the names of our different trades such as a Correct Score, a Bookies nominated player scoring first or anytime, or a game ending 0-0 etc.

The strategy is to bet and lay a selection unrelated to the bookie refund, and then lay the bookies nominated player or score etc.

There will be a loss on your bet and lay hedge due to the poor odds that bookies offer.

Quite often these trades are not worth doing due to the poor bookie odds, but this sheet will at least enable us to simulate these trades and pick out any that could be profitable.

These trades all have 4 possible outcomes – – – our selection that we hedge wins or loses, and the bookie refund = Yes or No.

At least one of those will always produce a loss – – Our selection wins, with refund = No.

If we can bet and lay something that guarantees that we cannot hedge a winner as well as getting no refund, we eliminate that scenario and can cut the trade down to 3 possible outcomes, and perhaps guarantee a profit from all 3.

The only thing that stops us being able to do that is the poor bookie bet odds compared to our lay odds.

Example.

“If Gerrard scores at anytime we will refund all losing Correct Score bets”.

If Liverpool are the Away Team in this game, we can bet and lay a 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0.

If Gerrard or any Liverpool player scores, we have a losing bookie bet, since 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 results become impossible.

We have the usual loss from our hedge of 1-0, but either a successful hedge of “Gerrard” in the Anytime Scorer market if he fails to score, or a refund of our bet stake if he does score.

We cannot hit Gerrard scores = Yes and the Home team wins 1-0.

Note that we need to Adjust cell B24 to balance the trade to show the potential profit or loss on all 4 possible outcomes.

Good luck with that.

I’ve been looking at these refunds for quite some time and have found bookie bet odds frustratingly ungenerous.

Many thanks to Darren for his suggestion in a previous thread of trading such as 1-0 to eliminate the worst possible outcome.