Pricewise – an Analysis

Pricewise is a column which appears in the Racing Post on Saturdays and other big race days. Tom Segal picks the horses he thinks are the best value at the advertised bookie odds, usually for the most difficult races of the day. It is important to realise that the prime object of the column is to pick out the VALUE, not necessarily the winner. Good value bets will automatically return a profit over time. There is no indication as to HOW he comes to the conclusion that a given bet is good value.Having read the headline on the front page of the Racing Post on Sat 9th July “Pricewise 116 points profit this year”, and noticed several of his winners myself, I decided to do an analysis of all of his selections and see what happened. I was aware that this impressive profit included winners at 50-1, 33-1 and 25-1.

Prices quoted at the bookies are usually available for a very short time at 8.30am on the morning of the race. Do not expect to be allowed very much at all – these bets can be quite large arbs and the prices are often quite big too. Consistent backing of Pricewise arbs will see your accounts limited very quickly, win or lose.

The following table lists all the Pricewise horses between 1st July and 20th August 2011. It is not unusual for there to be more than one selection in a race. “Gen” means 3 or more bookies have the best price. PM = Pari-mutuel (tote) odds, no SP available.

WARNING: 61 races is a very small sample. The figures here back up the claim that Pricewise is profitable, but past results and trends are not always carried forward to the future.

*Please note that almost all the Betfair prices were not available and these may differ considerably from the SP near the off.

61 selections during this period with 8 winners, a strike rate of just over 1 in 8. IMPORTANT – a strike rate of 1 in 8 will give frequent long losing runs of 20 or more. If you are punting these you must be prepared for huge swings and large losses at times, hopefully offset by occasional big priced wins. A level £1 stake on each selection at the suggested prices would have netted £27 profit (44% ROI). The problem with this is that it is not at all easy to get bets on at these prices, and you may not have access to the bookie with the best odds. Surprisingly, a level £1 stake at SP (or PM if SP was not available) would have netted a profit of £8. I would not have expected a profit from these bets at SP as SP is not a value bet.

Another interesting result of this analysis is the number of horses that started at much shorter prices than the Pricewise odds. This highlights a possible trading opportunity, backing the horses early and trading out near the off (or at some point during the day). I do not have any Betfair data for the prices on these horses, and clearly some of the prices will be falsely short after non runners. If you are considering trading these, please be aware that the prices available on Betfair in the morning are likely to be shorter than the best odds (arbs), and that the SP may be rather shorter than the lowest price available on Betfair. (For evidence see the available Betfair odds on Thubiaan, which were probably 12 to back in the morning and 10 at best before the off, yet the prices quoted were 16-1 in the morning and 8-1 SP). I cannot therefore make a sensible detailed analysis of the trading opportunities and if you decide to pursue this it is at your own risk. (On today’s evidence this would not be too good an idea – Thubiaan, probably 12 to back on Betfair in the morning and 10 at best before the off, was quoted at 16-1 in the morning and 8-1 SP, and Mount Athos drifted out to 20 before the Ebor, but remained at 10-1 at the bookies).

Finally you need to be aware that these selections are published in the Racing Post and it is quite hard to get hold of them without paying for the paper (or the online version). The Racing Post is not cheap at £1.80 (£2 on a Saturday) and it is not always obvious which days will feature Pricewise. The 2 French winners, Moonlight Cloud and Immortal Verse, may well have slipped through the net if you only bought the paper on Saturdays and big race days or if you stuck to UK races and that would have made a big hole in the profits.