Pricewise – an Analysis
- The TopTrap Greyhound Profit And Loss Account On Betfair - March 17, 2022
- Betfair Best Execution – 11 Requested & Filled At 320 - January 16, 2022
- BTB System e-book - March 13, 2015
Prices quoted at the bookies are usually available for a very short time at 8.30am on the morning of the race. Do not expect to be allowed very much at all – these bets can be quite large arbs and the prices are often quite big too. Consistent backing of Pricewise arbs will see your accounts limited very quickly, win or lose.
The following table lists all the Pricewise horses between 1st July and 20th August 2011. It is not unusual for there to be more than one selection in a race. “Gen” means 3 or more bookies have the best price. PM = Pari-mutuel (tote) odds, no SP available.
WARNING: 61 races is a very small sample. The figures here back up the claim that Pricewise is profitable, but past results and trends are not always carried forward to the future.
|Date||Race||Selection||Odds and bookies||Result||SP||Possible Betfair Trading Result
(Back early and wait for it to shorten)*
|Sat 2/7/11||2.00 San||Pastoral Player||6-1 Tote, Boyle||Unpl||13-2||Probable loss|
|2.35 San||Start Right||8-1 Will, Lads||2nd||11-2||Probable profit|
|3.25 Hay||War Poet||12-1 SJ, 11-1 gen||unpl||8-1||Probable profit|
|“||Bowdlers Magic||25-1 gen||3rd||16-1||Probable profit|
|Sun 3/7||4.35 Ham (Ger)||Arrigo||7-1 PP||Unpl||23-5 PM||Liquidity likely to be a problem|
|Thu 7/7||2.25 Newm||Fulgur||10-1 gen||WON||7-1||Probable profit|
|3.00 Newm||Afsare||5-1 gen||Unpl||6-1||Probable loss|
|Fri 8/7||1.50 Newm||What About You||25-1 gen||Unpl||16-1||Probable profit|
|3.00 Newm||I’m A Dreamer||14-1 Tote||Unpl||9-1||Probable profit|
|“||Memory||11-1 Coral||Unpl||8-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 9/7||2.40 York||Rock A Doodle Doo||8-1 Lads||Unpl||5-1F||Probable profit|
|“||Eternal Heart||9-1 Will, Boyle||Unpl||7-1||Possible profit|
|2.55 Newm||Striking Spirit||12-1 gen||Unpl||8-1||Probable profit|
|3.15 York||Pekan Star||5-1 Will||Unpl||3-1F||Probable profit|
|Thu 14/7||6.50 Long (Fr)||Reliable Man||11-4 gen||3rd||2-1F||Liquidity likely to be a problem|
|Sat 16/7||3.30 Newb||Sweet Chili||16-1 B365, Lads||Unpl||11-1||Probable profit|
|“||Ponty Acclaim||14-1 B365, Lad||Unpl||14-1||Probable loss|
|Sun 17/7||3.45 Cur||Laughing Lashes||14-1 gen||Unpl||15-2||Probable profit|
|4.50 Cur||Collingwood||12-1 PP||Unpl||8-1||Probable profit|
|“||Maarek||12-1 B365, Boyle||Unpl||5-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 23/7||3.40 York||Hoof It||6-1 Lads||WON||3-1F||Probable profit|
|3.50 Asc||Noble Citizen||14-1 gen||3rd||12-1||Possible profit|
|Tue 26/7||2.00 Good||Forte dei Marmi||12-1 B365, SJ, 11-1 gen||Unpl||11-1||Probable loss|
|“||Mirrored||28-1 B365, 25-1 PP||Unpl||16-1||Probable profit|
|2.35 Good||Slumber||5-1 B365, Will||Unpl||4-1||Possible profit|
|6.45 Gal||Defining Year||10-1 gen||3rd||8-1||Probable profit|
|Wed 27/7||2.00 Good||My Arch||16-1 gen||Unpl||10-1||Probable profit|
|3.45 Good||Four Nations||7-1 gen||Unpl||9-2||Probable profit|
|5.25 Gal||Dr Whizz||14-1 gen||Unpl||12-1||Possible profit|
|Thu 28/7||2.15 Good||Labarinto||7-1 B365, 13-2 gen||WON||4-1||Probable profit|
|3.15 Good||Fox Hunt||9-1 gen||Unpl||5-1||Probable profit|
|4.50 Good||Great Dirar||9-1 gen||3rd||7-1||Probable profit|
|“||Foster’s Cross||16-1 gen||2nd||12-1||Probable profit|
|Fri 29/7||2.35 Good||Tazahum||11-2 Fred||Unpl||4-1||Probable profit|
|3.10 Good||Riggins||14-1 B365, Coral||Unpl||16-1||Probable loss|
|“||Proponent||20-1 gen||2nd||14-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 30/7||2.05 Good||Noverre To Go||33-1 Will||Unpl||14-1||Probable profit|
|“||Dubai Media||25-1 gen||Unpl||12-1||Probable profit|
|3.45 Good||Macs Power||10-1 Will, Lads||3rd||13-2||Probable profit|
|“||Colonel Mak||20-1 Boyle, 16-1 gen||Unpl||12-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 6/8||12.50 Asc||Swift Gift||7-1 gen||Unpl||4-1F||Probable profit|
|2.00 Asc||Dungannon||6-1 Fred, Lads||WON||7-2||Probable profit|
|Sun 7/8||2.45 Deau (Fr)||Moonlight Cloud||12-1 gen||WON||9-1||Liquidity likely to be a problem|
|4.05 Cur||Gatepost||8-1 gen||Unpl||5-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 13/8||3.20 Newm||Blanche Dubawi||10-1 gen||Unpl||13-2F||Probable profit|
|“||Bertiewhittle||14-1 gen||WON||8-1||Probable profit|
|3.30 Rip||Waffle||14-1 Will, Lads||Unpl||9-1||Probable profit|
|“||Evens and Odds||25-1 gen||Unpl||16-1||Probable profit|
|Mon 15/8||2.55 Deau (Fr)||Planteur||14-1 gen||Unpl||10-1 PM||Liquidity likely to be a problem|
|“||Immortal Verse||16-1 PP||WON||19-1 PM||Liquidity likely to be a problem|
|Wed 17/8||2.00 York||Rain Delayed||33-1 gen||Unpl||18-1||Probable profit|
|3.05 York||Namibian||5-1 Coral||Unpl||9-2||Possible profit|
|Thu 18/8||2.30 York||Fire Lily||7-1 gen||2nd||4-1||Probable profit|
|3.05 York||Harrison George||12-1 gen||Unpl||9-1||Probable profit|
|Fri 19/8||2.00 York||Warlu Way||14-1 gen||Unpl||12-1||Possible profit|
|2.30 York||Sardanapalus||11-1 Coral||Unpl||9-1||Probable profit|
|3.40 York||Requito||8-1 Coral||Unpl||5-1||Probable profit|
|Sat 20/8||2.15 San||Fallen Idol||9-1 gen||WON||15-2||NRs 6.3%, 5.8% Betfair Trading at 9.6 5 min before the race.|
|“||Malthouse||10-1 Will||Unpl||5-1||ditto, Betfair Trading at 6.8 to lay 5 min before race.|
|2.30 York||Thubiaan||16-1 Boyle, 14-1 gen||Unpl||8-1F||available at 11 to lay before race.|
|3.40 York||Mount Athos||12-1 gen||Unpl||10-1||Betfair Trading steadily at 12 or 12.5 all morning, drifted later (last price I saw on Betfair was 20).|
*Please note that almost all the Betfair prices were not available and these may differ considerably from the SP near the off.
61 selections during this period with 8 winners, a strike rate of just over 1 in 8. IMPORTANT – a strike rate of 1 in 8 will give frequent long losing runs of 20 or more. If you are punting these you must be prepared for huge swings and large losses at times, hopefully offset by occasional big priced wins. A level £1 stake on each selection at the suggested prices would have netted £27 profit (44% ROI). The problem with this is that it is not at all easy to get bets on at these prices, and you may not have access to the bookie with the best odds. Surprisingly, a level £1 stake at SP (or PM if SP was not available) would have netted a profit of £8. I would not have expected a profit from these bets at SP as SP is not a value bet.
Another interesting result of this analysis is the number of horses that started at much shorter prices than the Pricewise odds. This highlights a possible Betfair Trading opportunity, backing the horses early and Betfair Trading out near the off (or at some point during the day). I do not have any Betfair data for the prices on these horses, and clearly some of the prices will be falsely short after non runners. If you are considering Betfair Trading these, please be aware that the prices available on Betfair in the morning are likely to be shorter than the best odds (arbs), and that the SP may be rather shorter than the lowest price available on Betfair. (For evidence see the available Betfair odds on Thubiaan, which were probably 12 to back in the morning and 10 at best before the off, yet the prices quoted were 16-1 in the morning and 8-1 SP). I cannot therefore make a sensible detailed analysis of the Betfair Trading opportunities and if you decide to pursue this it is at your own risk. (On today’s evidence this would not be too good an idea – Thubiaan, probably 12 to back on Betfair in the morning and 10 at best before the off, was quoted at 16-1 in the morning and 8-1 SP, and Mount Athos drifted out to 20 before the Ebor, but remained at 10-1 at the bookies).
Finally you need to be aware that these selections are published in the Racing Post and it is quite hard to get hold of them without paying for the paper (or the online version). The Racing Post is not cheap at £1.80 (£2 on a Saturday) and it is not always obvious which days will feature Pricewise. The 2 French winners, Moonlight Cloud and Immortal Verse, may well have slipped through the net if you only bought the paper on Saturdays and big race days or if you stuck to UK races and that would have made a big hole in the profits.
In 2021 TradeHost traded 7,937 Betfair UK, IE, US & AU horse racing and greyhound markets.
2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.
All trades and bets were streamed live on JuiceStorm TV which was was watched by 124,209 Betfair Traders in 2022.
All results for the 30,635 Betfair markets traded are here and the charts are here.
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