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Man of Mystery

I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to Adam Todd's BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

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This is a worked real example of the named runner in a treble offer that Betfair sometimes do.

Betfair Kauto Star treble promo (email only)

by corner123 » Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:06 am

Expired

***Offer only applies to this username***

—-

It’s the Betfair Chase at Haydock this Saturday and we’re giving you cash back on losing Racing Multiples bets if Kauto Star doesn’t win the Betfair Chase. Kauto Star is the current favourite at 2.18*, but will face a challenge from Notre Pere (3.1*).

Opt-in by clicking here and entering your username, password and the bonus code ‘KAUTO STAR 201109’.

Place a Racing Multiples bet with a minimum of three selections and a minimum stake of £10, that includes Kauto Star between now and 2:55pm on Saturday.

If Kauto Star doesn’t win the Betfair Chase, we’ll refund your stake, up to a maximum of £10.

—-

At first glance this doesn’t look very interesting, since if Kauto Star wins but one or both of your other 3 horses lose there is no refund. However if like me, you like to watch the races and like a free punt there is some value in this, PROVIDING you select the 3 horses so that Kauto Star runs FIRST. This basically gives you a free bet on Kauto, which turns into a £10 DOUBLE on the other 2 horses if Kauto wins, but you will get paid approximately twice the SP odds on your double should it come off, because the odds will be multiplied by Kauto Star’s SP which should be somewhere around 2.

My suggestion, for those who have access to Betfair during the racing and like to play, would be:

3 horses:

14.55 Kauto Star

3.10 Voy Por Ustedes (expect around 4 at Betfair)

3.40 Presvis (expect around 2 at Betfair)

(you can of course choose other horses but remember they must be in races after 2.55 and the shorter the odds the better).

If we assume that the SPs for the treble are 10-11, 6-4 and 1-2 (all of which are shorter than I expect) and that the Betfair prices for the other 2 horses at the off are 4 and 2, then we have the following scenarios:

1. Kauto Star loses. Lose £10 on the multiple, get £10 refund from Betfair, no further action required.

2. Kauto Star wins. Lay £10.55 on Voy Por Ustedes at 4.

a) Voy Por Ustedes loses. You lose your £10 treble and win £10.55 less commission at Betfair.

b) Voy Por Ustedes wins. Your treble is still going but you lost £31.65 at Betfair. You then need to cover this loss on Presvis in case he loses.

3. Work out how much you would win if your treble comes up. By my reckoning at the predicted prices of 10-11, 6-4 and 1-2 the return should be about £60 (1.9×2.5×1.5 = 7.125, multiply by 10 stake and subtract 10 stake = 61.25). If you lay £35 on Presvis at 2.0 your liability on him will be £35 if he wins, giving you a profit of about £25 on the treble. If he loses you get about £2 for your trouble.

Note that is is extremely unlikely that Presvis will start at an SP of 1-2 (1.5) and be 2.0 on Betfair, or that Voy Por Ustedes will be 4 on Betfair and have an SP as short as 2.5. I’ve chosen these prices as a worst case scenario and profits are likely to be much bigger. You can of course skew the lays to win more if the horse loses, but remember that the return from the treble is dependent on all 3 SPs and is only a guess. I am not sure if the treble returns are calculated on bookie SP or Betfair SP, which increases the uncertainty, but if the first 2 legs win you will have an idea of how much is being carried forward onto Presvis by multiplying the first 2 SPs together.

Non runners may alter the calculations. If Kauto doesn’t run the refund goes onto the favourite. If non runners shorten the odds in the other races the calculations can be re-done and the bet should still be viable. I suggest leaving it until an hour or so before the race because a significant non runner in Kauto’s race would shorten his odds dramatically, and that would make a winning treble much less profitable.