Suggested Strategies and link to spreadsheet in this post.

by corner123 » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:31 am

This promotion has expired.

First Goalscorer Moneyback Offer

Bet on who you think will be the First Player to Score and if your selection fails to get the first goal, but scores at any other time, we’ll give you your money back as a free bet!

Minimum qualifying stake of £5 per 1st goalscorer (or currency equivalent). Matched free bet up to £250 per customer (or currency equivalent).

All fixtures are subject to change and are dependent on television schedule.

by jefflewis » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:13 pm

there must be a risk free bet available here but I’m struggling to find it as Betfair allow you to LAY a player scoring any goal whereas really you want to be able to LAY someone scoring any goal but the first. Am I missing something – any clues please ???

by corner123 » Thu Feb 18, 2010 5:28 pm

No, you are not missing anything – these offers are tricky to match out risk free. It is occasionally possible to find an arb, although bookies with the offer are often a bit mean on the prices.

by corner123 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:20 am

Underlay method

Darren has pointed out that it is sometimes possible to underlay these on the first goalscorer market and lay the remainder on the to score market to cover the rest of your lay. This can be used to lock in a profit if the odds are good enough, but you must factor in the fact that the free bet is SNR.

Unhelpfully there are no odds for these markets on Betfair today, so I will post a real example when some odds appear. I am also uncertain of the rules at Betfair in the to score market on players who do not start the match and on own goals.

First goalscorer – bets void at SJ and Betfair if player does not play before the first goal. Own goals do not count.

To score (Betfair) – own goals do not count. Bets stand if the player plays any part in the match.

If you are going to use the to score market you must make sure that your player is playing at the start of the match.

by jambrose50 » Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:44 am

been doing this for a while and taking a loss on the back/lay, only betting when back/lay odds look like being within a point. Usually get down to 0.6 difference, so a wager of £50 at 5/5.5 = -£6. Also will only wager on match looking like high score, done gerrard last night (£75 @ 5/5.6 -£10.20) obviously no good. overall showing a loss using this method, but doing ok the last month. good bit of interest when watching match, but up till now not profitable for me, but will persevere

if i do win, wager freebie out on horses, as you can pick up some good matches.

by Darren » Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:22 am

I have a spreadsheet for the calculations so will upload that plus do a quick video showing it in action once the markets are up on Betfair.

by corner123 » Sun Feb 21, 2010 1:48 pm

As promised, here is an example of the underlay method in action.

The conditions required to make this risk free are:

The player starts the match, so that SJ do not void bets if he doesn’t play before the first goal.

The lay stakes on the first goalscorer and to score markets must add up to at least Stake at SJ plus commission.

The total of liabilities on first gs and to score lays must not exceed the winnings from the SJ bet.

The liability on the to score market must not exceed the value of the first gs lay stake at betfair. You therefore need low odds.

Today’s match is Aston Villa v Burnley. Calculations are done for a £50 stake.

Gabriel Abgonalhor is favourite to score first goal at 4.5 at SJ, which would win £175 for a £50 stake.

The lay price in the fgs market is 5.3. This produces a problem because there is not enough leeway in the odds to lay anything on the to score market, so lets pretend that the Betfair price is 4.8. The current price on the to score market is 2.4.

Example

Back £50 at SJ at 4.5, lay £35 on fgs market at 4.8, lay £20 on to score market at 2.4.

No score – lose £50 at SJ, win £55 less £2.75 commission (5%) at Betfair. Profit = £2.25.

Player scores first goal – win £175 at SJ, lose £ 133 on fgs market, lose £28 on to score market. Profit = £14

Player scores any other time – no loss at SJ (refund) win £35 less £1.75 commission on fgs, lose £28 on to score market, profit = 5.25.

Remember that the refund is SNR, so this will not leave you with much profit after you have bet with it.

Example

Back £50 at SJ at 4.5, lay £40 at 4.8 on fgs, lay 15 on to score at 2.4.

No score as above, profit £2.25

Player scores first – win £175 at SJ lose £152 on fgs, lose £21 on to score. Profit = £2

Player scores any other time – no loss at SJ, win £40 less £2 com on fgs, lose £21 on to score. profit = £17.

Play with the figures yourself using the “what if” figures on Betfair and you will soon see how I have done this, but don’t forget to factor in commission.

by Darren » Mon Feb 22, 2010 3:24 pm

Yes I had a little look on Sat but not worth it. Below is the best i could come up with on Rooney as First Goalscorer, 4.5 / 5.3 and 2.2 to lay in the To Score market but that had little liquidity to be honest.

Naturally we could get better odds on the next one and a better commission rate naturally helps but still looking at a £870 outlay to lock in a fiver so I will leave that call to you, I left this alone.

I have uploaded the spreadsheet and it can be accessed here: fgs so you can have a play for yourself