Match Preview Radwanska vs Bacsinszky 08.07 Wimbledon 2017

Wimbledon, London, UK, Grass Courts, WTA

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The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

Previous Meetings

These two have met twice before, with Bacsinszky winning both. Firstly back in 2015 in the Fed cup, 6-1 6-1 and then last year in Miami 2-6 6-4 6-2.

Both have played very little grass court tennis coming to Wimbledon, Radwanska lost in the First Round at Eastbourne to Lauren Davis 7-6 6-1 whilst Bacsinszky also fell at the first hurdle at Eastbourne, 6-7 6-2 4-6 to Peng Shuai.

Both have winning all-time grass court records though, Radwanska has won 72% of her matches on the lawns, with Bacsinszky winning 55% of hers.

Wimbledon Results So Far

Radwanska hammered Jelena Jankovic in Round 1, 7-6 6-0, before saving two match points on route to battling past Christina McHale in Round 2, 5-7 7-6 6-3.

Bacsinszky defeated a very erratic Monica Puig in Round 1, 6-1 3-6 6-0, and followed this up with a convincing straight sets victory against Kristina Kucova in Round 2, 6-1 6-0.

Bacsinszky has certainly looked the more comfortable of the two players so far this week, with Radwanska still searching for that belief in her game that took her to world number 3 in 2016.

Serving Stats

Radwanska’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; she’s won 67% of her service points and held serve 85% of the time.

Bacsinszky’s recent grass court mean serving stats look like this; she’s won 71% of her service points and held serve 88% of the time.

Radwanska’s serve is functional, the grass certainly helps her get a little bit of extra pace on it, but generally speaking I think it’s exploitable, especially if her first serve % is not high (74% for Wimbledon thus far). I don’t expect her to hold serve with ease today.

Bacsinszky has a solid serve, she will predominantly hit with slice and use the grass to skid it away from the right-hander. I expect her to be leading the ace count between these two today.

Returning Stats

Radwanska’s recent grass court mean returning stats this week look like this, she’s won 44% of his return points, 36% of her break points and opponents have held 70% of the time against her.

Bacsinszky’s recent grass court mean returning stats this week look like this, she’s won 46% of his return points, 60% of her break points and opponents have held 55% of the time against her.

Radwanska will take full swings off the return most of the time, however she can at times block the ball back off the forehand side. She doesn’t really have the firepower to be particularly aggressive off the return though, so I can only really see Bacsinszky being broken consistently today through her own unforced errors.

Bacsinszky on the other hand will look to be more aggressive off the return, especially the second serve and with her high break point conversion % I can see her getting plenty of joy off the Radwanksa delivery today.

Groundstrokes

Radwanska is solid off both wings, personally i think her double-handed backhand is her most reliable side, however she has struggled for a long time now to get enough depth on her groundies, and anything left short today will be punished by Bacsinszky. Look out for dropshots from the Pole though, she has great feel and may will employ this tactic frequently to get the Swiss player off the baseline.

Bacsinszky is a pretty aggressive baseliner, she favours her backhand and i’m sure this will be a source of plenty of winners today. She will mix up the speed and spins on her shots off both wings, mostly hitting the ball hard and flat but at times playing with tricky slice also. She will use this to keep Radwanska off balance and disturb her rhythm.

Summary

I see Bacsinszky as the winner here, i don’t think Radwanska has enough weapons on the grass to hurt her consistently enough. I think Bacsinszky will over-power the Pole in every department today and the only way she will lose is if she beats herself through unforced errors.