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Tennis Purist

The Tennis Purist - Pete - has been a full time tennis trader on Betfair since May 2012. Pete uses his own modelling platform to analyse data and statistics from the ATP, WTA and Challenger Tour circuits, in order to execute upon profitable trading opportunities pre-match and in-play.

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Today sees us continue our match previews from the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart, Germany. Our focus shifts to the match between German world number 51, Florian Mayer and the French world number 80, Jeremy Chardy. This will be both players opening match of the grass court season, however Mayer did reach the Quarter Final here last year and will be sure to have the crowd on his side today.

Previous Meetings/Grass Court Pedigree:

This is the first time these two have met, so we have no head to head records to look at, what we do however know that Mayer loves playing on grass, especially in Germany. He won in Halle last year beating Alexander Zverev in the final, and it took Roger Federer to beat him at the Quarter Final stage here in Stuttgart last year. Chardy’s recent grass court performances look less impressive on paper, having won just two of his last eight matches on the surface, spanning back to 2014.

Being both player’s first matches on the grass this season, we will take a look at their all time surface stats….

Serving Stats:

Mayer’s  all time grass court serving stats look like this; the Spaniard has won 66% of his service points and held serve 83% of the time.

Chardy’s  all time grass court serving stats look like this; the Spaniard has won 68% of his service points and held serve 87% of the time.

These numbers compare to the all time grass court mean of 65% service points won and 82% service hold. So, as we can see, both players serve at a level above the grass court mean, so don’t expect a flurry of breaks today. Mayer will often be looking to follow his first serve in and win points at the net,  Chardy on the other hand will look to ‘one-two punch’  with his forehand off his big first serve.

Returning Stats:

Mayer’s all time grass court returning stats look like this; he wins 35% of his return points, 38% of his break points and his opponents have held serve 82% of the time.

Chardy’s all time grass court returning stats look like this; he wins 33% of his return points, 36% of his break points and his opponents have held serve 85% of the time.

These numbers compare to the all time grass court mean of 35% return points won, 38% return points won and 82% opponent hold. So Mayer’s return stats are bang on the grass court mean, with Chardy’s very slightly below. Both players will need to increase their returning numbers in order to gain traction in their opponents service games today. I don’t expect to see many/if any breaks of serve today.

Groundstrokes:

Mayer will play an incredibly varied game of the ground, hitting predominantly flat forehands mixed with slice backhands, which will keep very low off the grass. The German is also a very accomplished volleyer, and will look to move to the net at every given opportunity. Chardy’s money shot is his big forehand, and he will look to get this in play as much as possible, however Mayer’s slice will not make it easy to do this as often as the Frenchman would like.

Summary:

I think this is a tough one to call, on any other Surface i’d fancy Chardy to just nick it, however the grass is so well suited to Mayers’ game (and his results back that up), I just can’t help feeling that the German might just make life too difficult too often for Chardy today. I would expect there to be at least one tiebreak, and quite possibly three sets.