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Not a lot left to play for in La Liga with Girona almost certain to be relegated unless they have a massive win at Alaves, and Celta fail to beat Vallecano. The only other meaningful games are involving European places where Valencia and Getafe are fighting over a Champions League spot, Sevilla would need a miracle, and Sevilla and Bilbao are chasing a Europa League place, although Sevilla are all but mathematically sure of that place.
Saturday 18th May 2019
Celta Vigo v Rayo Vallecano
With Rayo already relegated, Celta are highly likely to get their draw, especially as they have beaten Rayo 3-0 and 6-1 in the last two head to head at home and more tellingly, they have won their last four at home. Rayo have lost their last eight away but have scored in seven of them and may relax enough o cause Celta a few problems. Celta are a ridiculous 1.40 to win this, the price being influenced by them needing to stay up, but they only need a draw and if it is level near the end of the game, I don’t see them pushing on for a winner and taking a risk. If you can get the 1.61 on both teams to score, that is far better value.
Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao
By a twist of fate, these two meet in the final game with Sevilla just needing to avoid a very big defeat to guarantee European football, although they must go for a win in case Valencia and Getafe both slip up. Athletic know what they have to do, win at all costs with lots of goals. However unlikely that is, they need to try from the start. I can see this game petering out into a draw if news comes through that Valencia or Getafe are winning, and because of that, odds of 1.70 do not appeal. A game to leave alone, but if you need to trade, try 1-1 and 2-2 on correct scores.
Valladolid v Valencia
Valencia must win by at least the same goal difference as Getafe, if they beat Villarreal. The first thing they need to do is win and they have drawn on their last two visits to Valladolid. Valencia need to hope that Valladolid are “on the beach” and start the game as they did at Huesca recently, where they led 5-0 at half-time. Over 2.5 goals appeals at around 1.61 as a trading option.
Getafe v Villarreal
Getafe must go for it and win by more than Valencia do at Valladolid. Victory here is no gimme, but they need to hope Villarreal “switch off” now that they are safe. They did win this fixture by 4-0 last season and that is what they need to do again. As they have to go for goals, I would rather a small stake on Getafe -1 on the handicap at around 2.70.
* Note: Odds are subject to change
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