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Man of Mystery

I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

The JuiceStorm team built TradeHost for profitable automated trading and betting on Betfair in the UK, IE, AU and US horse racing markets. TradeHost Lite started in 2013 and is free forever.

Latest posts by Man of Mystery (see all)

• Matchbook And Betfair Risk/Reward Ratios - November 23, 2024
• Emotions And How To Protect You From Yourself - November 23, 2024
• Volatility And 5 Ways to Trade Better On Matchbook Or Betfair - November 23, 2024

Need a system? In order to make regular profitable trades you must learn how the exchange markets work.

Today I will share a simple but effective trading method that can be profitable if executed at the right time on the right horses.

Look for a horse that has a reasonable chance of winning based on its form.

20 minutes before the start of the race place your back bet with the aim of laying off at lower odds just before the race to create a risk free profit. Learn to be methodical.

Unfortunately, after looking at the horses Betfair graph you discover it has drifted and there is still money coming in to lay it, so for the short term at least it is likely to continue drifting, despite the horses form looking reliable. You may ask yourself why this is happening. There are several possible causes:-

• Other horses are being backed in greater volume.
• Negative horse behaviour on live TV.
• The forecast going has changed due to late rain.
• Negative rumours.

If the price of the favourite has drifted beyond what it realistically should be according to its implied chance you should look to do the opposite and back it against the market in any system.

Identify that the price has reached its peak. It’s no use backing a price that is still rising.

The price may also start to stabilise and the graph goes sideways. The price may have reached its peak and starts to descend downwards quickly.

Only consider backing 1st or 2nd favourites which have drifted AND when their prices have drifted beyond what they should be according to the form fundamentals. When you feel the price is overbought.

Many may have been simply chasing the price upwards or sufficient money has come in to back second or third favourites.

I rarely trade a race where there is less than a 10% difference in price between 1st and 2nd favourites.

Be even more wary of races where the first three in the betting market are closely priced. They are all likely to be supported. In this situation it is a challenge to decide when to enter a trade but you may find a system that works. Please let me know. Nobody has a monopoly on good ideas.

Finally, Betfair`s own research of 5644 races over an entire season established that if you had backed every drifter you would have made a total of 2233 bets for 231 points profit. But if you had backed every steamer and made 3131 bets you would be facing a 349 points loss. I’m not going to delve in to the detail here but suffice it to say automating a strategy based around these stats with a few filters could well prove profitable today. 😉

Here’s the thing; preparation is the key to success. Like anything else in life learn to have patience and build your skill gradually. Finally, it’s always advisable to trade using small stakes on any new methods.