Saturday TV Horse Racing Trends & Tips: 3rd Nov 2018

Ascot and Wetherby horse racing tips


It’s jump action all the way this Saturday as the hedge-hoppers take over from the flat horses with the new National Hunt season starting to hit top gear now.

Wetherby and Ascot are where the ITV cameras are at as we’ve seven races spread across the two venues with the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase the feature contest at Wetherby and with some familiar faces lining-up then it’s a must-see early season contest,  while at Ascot the Sodexo Gold Cup heads their bill.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.50 – Ascot Underwriting Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m3f ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Irish bred
4/5 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Aged 6 year-old
3/5 – Yet to win over fences
2/5 – Had run over hurdles at Ascot before
0/5 – Winning favourites
Trainer Oliver Sherwood has a 33% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 23% record with his chasers at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Paul Nicholls often does well with his chases here at Ascot (23%) and with his horses in decent order during this early part of the main jumps season, then anything he sends to post should be respected. At this stage he’s got AMOUR DE NUIT entered and after two good recent wins will head here fitter than most. The yard had three entries for the race so the fact this one gets the nod is a good sign – he gets the call. Nicky Henderson is another trainer that does well over fences here so his runner – Wenyerreadyfreddie (Henderson) are respected and is sure to be popular but also doesn’t look much value. The Hobbs-trained Sternrubin was an easy winner at Exeter last week and can’t be ruled out either but this will be harder. Finally, the Gary Moore yard won this race 12 months ago so their LARRY (e/w) is another to consider. He ended last season with two nice wins over hurdles and could make into a better chaser with another summer on his back. Peppay Le Pugh and Caid du Lin are others to consider – especially the first-named that comes from the in-form Dan Skelton yard and gets in here with just 10-4 in weight – that would make him dangerous to overlook too. 

 

2.25 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

12/15 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
11/15 – Irish (5) or French (6) bred
10/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
9/15 – Having their first run of the new season
9/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/15 – Rated 130 or lower
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Aged 8 years-old
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/15 – Won carrying 11-12
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: SHANTOU ROCK is a consistent performer that looks a safe bet to run his race. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from five starts over fences and went well fresh last season when winning first time at Newton Abbot. The trip and ground are perfect, and the Skelton yard have made a cracking start to the season already – he can go well and gets the thumbs-up here. The improving Champagne At Tara is another leading players that catch the eye and could have more to come. Ink Master is interesting with 10-7 but fell last time out so would need to bounce back from that, while Vosne Romanee and Rock On Rocky make up the rest of the five runners.

 

3.00 – Bet With Ascot Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
14/14 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
12/14 – Never raced at Ascot before
11/14 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/14 – Having their first run of the season
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
6/14 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (3) last time out
5/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
4/14 – Won by a French bred horse
3/14 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Won by trainer Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent renewal with some leading handicap hurdlers on show. The powerful Nicholls and King yards have won four of the last 14 runnings between them so their runners, Divin Bere (Nicholls) and Fidux (King) are all sure to be popular. Of that lot, Nicholls’ DIVIN BERE, who was a close second in the 2017 Fred Winter, has been given a confidence booster when winning easily on the flat at Bath the other day and looks well-handicapped off 138 – a pound lower than that FW second. He disappointed last season but the Nicholls yard have taken their time with him and at just 5 years-old should have more to come – he’s one for the shortlist with this better ground a plus for him too. Verdana Blue is the only course and distance winner in the field and returned to the track with a nice win at Kempton last month – beating the useful Old Guard by 7 lengths. A 3lb rise for that looks fair and he can’t be ruled out, but it won’t be easy with topweight of 11-12. GLOBAL CITIZEN did well during the early part of last season but flopped in at Aintree in the Top Novices’ Hurdle. The better ground will suit here though, and he can be expected to be a lot better for the break. The Pauling yard have also been having winners recently too, so he’s another that can go well. Simply The Betts seems to be going the right way after wins at Warwick and Hexham, but this looks harder. Sussex Ranger and the lightly-weighted Jumping Jack are others to note in a very competitive contest.

 

3.35 – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
10/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
8/13 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
8/13 – Having their first run of the season
8/13 – Unplaced in their last race
8/13 – Carried 10-10 or more
8/13 – Aged 8 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
6/13 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Go Conquer won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Pipe yard have won well in the race over the years too – they have Ramses De Teilee entered at this stage but is on a bit of a recovery mission after a two below-par recent runs. Kings Lad heads here in form after a good win last time out so is sure to be popular but more is needed in this harder race. Traffic Fluide was a solid second on his return run too and represents the Gary Moore yard that won this in 2016 – he can go well off just a 2lb higher rating than last time. However, it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner – GO CONQUER. Now with the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard this 9 year-old took this race by just over 4 lengths last time and despite being 5lbs higher is a horse that goes well fresh. The good ground will help too, and TD yard have been in good order over the last few months. Nicholls runs two – Art Mauresque and Adrien Du Pont – so can’t be dismissed, with jockey bookings suggesting Adrien Du Pont, with Harry Cobden riding, being their main one. Skelton’s Too Many Diamonds did well summer jumping a few months ago so has improved a lot. The yard are going well and in this higher grade he gets in with a handy weight.

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
10/11 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
9/11 – Never raced at Wetherby before
9/11 – Having their first run of the season
7/11 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
6/11 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
6/11 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
4/11 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by John Quinn
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent mares’ only contest here and the Fergal O’Brien yard could have a say with – OSCAR ROSE – was a very easy winner at Worcester last week. This is a big step up in grade and she’s a bit to find on these terms with several, but she won with bundles in-hand so might be worth giving a chance to in this better contest. Whatzjazz and Irish Roe are others that should not be far away, but LADY BUTTONS was a fine second in this race last year and can go well again. She only went down by two lengths 12 months ago and is sure to be well tuned-up for another big run. She’s also a course winner so we know the track suits and off a mark of 137 is certainly one of the main players.

 

2.40 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

14/16 – Were having their first run of the season
14/16 – Rated 151 or higher
13/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Ran at either Ayr (3), Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
9/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/16 – Had run at Wetherby before (2 won)
6/16  – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Evan Williams
Bristol De Mai (6/1) won the race in 2017
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007 & 2017
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: No Thistlecrack – so that’s a shame – but connections feel the ground isn’t going to be soft enough and they don’t want to risk him. The ground has also seen last year’s winner – Bristol De Mai – being pulled out and we are left with just five runners! Definitly Red, who was third last year, will have an easier chance this year and is a proven course winner. Despite his form tailing off last season he still recorded top wins at Aintree and Cheltenham in the Cotswold Chase and with last year’s winner not in the race now then he must have a better chance. Double Shuffle made a name for himself with a fine second in the King George last season but failed to back that up with flops at Aintree and Sandown after. On a plus, he’ll love the better ground but he’s a horse that just doesn’t win enough for me – he’s recorded only one win from his last 14. He has also been second on his first run back for the last three seasons so might be one for the forecast players, while he does get a handy 6lbs from Definitly Red. Nicholls has a fair record in the race too – winning it three times – so his runner BLACK CORTON are feared and gets the nod in what doesn’t look the best renewal. This 7 year-old shot up the ranks last season with five wins and won first time out last season too. He’s sure to make a bold bid from the front again and on this quicker ground might be hard to peg back. Virgilio is another that will like the better ground and has done well over the Summer by winning twice. This is a much harder race though so despite having conditions in his favour would need to find a tiny bit more. Regal Encore makes up the field and is the oldest in the line-up at 10. He’s only won three times over fences but seems to save his best for Ascot these days.

 

3.15 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
15/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
13/16 – Failed to win their last race
12/16 – Officially rated 149 or higher
12/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
8/16 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
9/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/16 – Had won at Wetherby before
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Clyne is a consistent performer that can go well but you feel the ground would need to be a tad softer for this horse to be at his best. Old Guard will be popular too as he can expected to be better for a recent second at Kempton, but this is a big step up in trip and the only time he’s tried 3m he’s been well beaten. So, really the ratings suggest this race will revolve around the 158-rated WHOLESTONE. This 7 year-old has hit the top three in 13 of his 16 hurdles starts and won 5 times. He’s the clear top-rated in the field and this looks a decent race to start his season off again. He’s a regular in the top staying hurdle races at the main festivals but should find this company slightly easier. The Twiston-Davies yard are going well too, while he was only beaten 2 lengths in this race 12 months ago – it would be a shock if he’s not involved again. Of the rest, the Jamie Snowden yard are also going well so their MONBEG THEATRE (e/w) is also interesting at a price. He’s a proven course and distance winner that battled well to beat Nautical Nitwit last time out here. Yes, he’s got more to find but he seems to be a horse going the right way and from 13 hurdles starts has been placed in the top three 10 times so rarely runs a bad one.

 

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