Saturday Horse Racing Tips and Trends: 10th Nov 2018

Aintree, Doncaster and Wincanton horse racing tips

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton racecourse with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster racecourse for the ultra-competitive November Handicap, and also heading to Aintree to take in one of their contestsas always we’ve got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races, plus our free tips.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Marathonbet Sportsbook British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Had won at least twice before
11/14 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/14 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/14 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 13 of the last 14 winners aged 3 or 4 years-old then of the 14 runners this knocks three out – Company Asset, Empress Ali and Pacharana, who are all too old. On the official ratings then Queen Of Time is a big player for the Henry Candy yard but despite running well in similar races recently has been hard to win with – is now 11 races without a success. It would be foolish to rule out the Aidan O’Brien runner – Snowflakes – but she’s not exactly fired of late and doesn’t look like being one of the stable’s superstars. Anasheed was a good winner on just her second start at Chelmsford last time and can be expected to improve but the call here is MAID TO REMEMBER and BONA FIDE. The first-named was a fair second in a Listed race at HQ last time out and if learning to settle a bit better can go well. She stays further than this after finishing off well last time, so the ling Donny straight should be right up her street. Bona Fide is coming over from the shrewd Dermot Weld team and the hint should be taken – they don’t often send runners over for the sake of it! She’s won two of her three starts and being lightly-raced this Frankel filly should have more to come. Trip, track and ground are fine, while draw 4 looks an ideal starting point with 9 of the last 14 winners hailing from stalls 6 or lower.

 

2.05 – Marathonbet Official Global Partner Of Manchester City Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/15 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
13/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Won from stall 12 or lower
12/15 – Rated 99 or higher
12/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
8/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/15 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course and distance winners – Eirene and Laugh A Minute – are respected, while the consistent O’Brien runner – Could It Be Love – can go well too. However, all three are 3 year-olds and with 12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or older this is a negative. 13 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 12 or lower so another of the main fancies – Donjuan Triumphant, who is the top-rated in the field (112), will also have this to overcome from stall 16. So, the picks here are the 110-rated pair of LIBRISA BREEZE and GORDON LORD BYRON (e/w). The last-named is a stalwart in races like this and wasn’t beaten far when sixth in the contest 12 months ago. At the age of 10 he’s not getting any younger but is still showing a decent level of form and looks a fair each-way price. Librisa Breeze has been running in much better races than this and was last seen running down the field in the Group One Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot. This will be the first time he’s dropped into this grade for a while so should find things a lot easier. Any rain would be a big plus, but he’s still got winning form on a quicker surface so with the ease in grade a plus he can go well.

 

3.15 – Marathonbet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/15 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
12/15 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
12/15 – Favourites that were unplaced
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/15 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/15 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
1/15 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

JUICESTORM VERDICT: John Gosden has a decent record in this race – with two wins since 2009 and five successes in total – he runs Royal Line. This horse hasn’t been out for 199 days but is sure to be fully wound up for this and despite having a lot of weight could easily turn out to be better than a handicapper. The Hughie Morrison yard have already had a good week with a second in the Melbourne Cup – they run four – Temple Church, Fun Mac, Not So Sleepy and Buzz, with the last-named looking their main hope. This 4 year-old has won three of his last four but is up another 5lbs from his last win so needs another step forward. Now Children and My Lord And Master are others to note, while the season trainer Charlie Appleby is having then his Wolf Country can’t be discounted either. However, the three I like here are RESHOUN, EVERYTHING FOR YOU and BIRDS OF PREY. All three are near the bottom of the weights, but with 10 of the last 15 winners carrying 8st 13lbs or less this is a plus. The Ian Williams yard, who boast a decent 21% record with their older horses here, won the race last year so that’s a plus for his Reshoun, who is also a proven course and distance winner at the track. The stable also run Baydar and Restorer but they both might have the age trend to overcome. Reshoun bounced back to form with an easy win at Haydock last time and a 4lb rise for that looks fair. 8st 11lbs is a nice weight and draw 18, plus Jim Crowley riding are further positives. Jamie Spencer rides the Kevin Ryan runner – Everything For You – who has only finished out of the first two once from his last six starts. The step up in trip is the only unknown here as this will be the furthest he’s gone, but we can expect Spencer to ride him with that in-mind. Finally, Birds Of Prey is a rare flat runner for trainer Paul Nicholls but with just 8st 9lbs to carry he gets weight from most of the others. He’s recently had wind surgery too so there should be more to come and was a fair second in a Lady riders’ race at Haydock back in August – form that would give here a decent chance. She was also only 2 ¼ lengths off Buzz at Kempton back in May but has a decent weight turnaround with that horse to suggest he can turn the tables – especially as Megan Nicholls takes a further 5lbs off with her allowance. Of the rest, the Hugo Palmer camp have a fine strike-rate here with their older horses (25%) so their To Be Wild could be interesting too. He’s not been out since May and been gelded since his last run but that came in a Group Three when running just over 4 lengths to Hawkbill. Into a handicap here gives him a better chance and he’s been well supported in the days leading up to the race. It’s just whether he’s able to overcome the 539 day absence.

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Hunts Food Service Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/11 – Rated between 119-129
8/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/11 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
5/11 – Had run at the track before
5/11 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Little Miss Poet won well at the course back in May but is up 11lbs for that success so a lot more is needed. The longer trip will be fine Hobbs team are going great guns at the moment. Dickie Johnson rides too so she’s one for the shortlist. The Paul Nicholls runner – If You Say Run – is another to consider and is also a past course winner. She won first time out last season so the 231 day break is not a concern but does need to bounce back from a poor run at Newbury last March. The Anthony Honeyball yard won this race in 2015 so their G For Ginger will be hoping to add to that. She will, however, need to bounce back from a poor last run at Worcester but does have previous form to suggest she’s better than that. Another yard that have done well in this race though is the Harry Fry camp – they’ve won it in 2013 and 2017 – so their LITTERALE CI gets the call. This 5 year-old does have a lot of weight (11-12) but that’s for a reason – he’s the best horse in the race. He’s won three of his last four and the last of those was an eye-catching success at Newton Abbot. He’s up 6lbs for that but he’s a progressive horse that could easily go onto better things this season.

 

2.25 – Bet At racinguk.com ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Had won no more than twice over fences
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
8/11 – Irish (4) or French (4) bred
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
7/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five runners head to post here but it’s still an intriguing little contest. The Tim Vaughan yard are going well at the moment so their Theligny is a goo place to start. A 137-rated hurdler that has some solid form but did rather lose his way a bit last season. He was always beaten fair and square by Bags Groove at Aintree last October and it might be more of the same here. The Harry Fry yard have a decent 31% record with their chasers at the track plus this 7 year-old does have experience of fences after winning well last time out at Ffos Las. He sets the standard is looks set to run a big race with Noel Fehily booked to ride. However, the Paul Nicholls runner – SECRET INVESTOR – will be popular too after catching the eye at Chepstow last time out over hurdles. He’ll have been well schooled for this first run over fences and the yard have a cracking record in the race – winning 7 of the last 11 runnings. That recent run was his first back after a wind-op so it’s clear it helped and he should have more to offer now he’s tackling the bigger obstacles. Of the rest, the Emma Lavelle yard have a 33% record with their chasers at the track so their Majestic Moll is another to consider and heads here having won two of it’s last three.

 

3.00 – Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Rated 150 or lower
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Having first run of the season
5/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/14 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by John Quinn
2/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another select field here but some big names lining-up. If The Cap Fits went into a lot of notebooks last season after winning three on the bounce- with the last of those coming on Boxing Day at Kempton. He missed all the main festivals after that but with connections taking their time with him, he could have a big season ahead. The ratings suggest he’s got a bit to find though with the Henderson-trained WE HAVE A DREAM as despite getting 3lbs from that runner is rated 9lbs inferior at this stage of their careers. The Seven Barrows yard, who took this in 2008, did a cracking job with this French recruit last season – winning five on the spin with in – including the Doom Bar Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree back in April. He’s not a flashy sort but is gutsy and has done nothing wrong. He sets the standard and jockey Daryl Jacob has a top record in this race – winning it in 2011, 2012 and 2016. Verdana Blue is another Henderson runner in the field and getting 6lbs from his stablemate then he’s a player too. He won well at Kempton last month and looks as if he’s improved over the summer – he can go well too. Redicean is the other to get a mention. The Alan King team took this in 2016 and this horse returned with a fair second at Cheltenham last month. The only niggle with him is that his two best runs have been at Kempton, so he need to prove that form away from that track – but at least Wincanton is a pretty similar course so that may help.

 

3.35 – Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/15 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/15 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
12/15 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
12/15 –  Raced at the course previously (5 won over fences)
12/15 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
12/15  – Placed in the top four in their last race
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced already that season
9/15 – Irish-bred horse
8/15 – Raced at either Sandown (2), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/15 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/15 – Priced at double-figures
7/15 – Won their latest race
5/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
5/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/15 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 4 of the last 8 years)
Present Man (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The last horse to land back-to-back Badger Ales Trophy Chases was Swansea Bay in 2002/03 so the Paul Nicholls-trained Present Man, who landed this prize last year, will be looking to repeat that. He’s one of just two proven course and distance winner in the field but is also only 2lbs higher than last year. Bryony Frost also rode him 12 months ago and continues in the saddle – she claimed 5lbs last year but can only claim 3lbs this year. So all-in-all he’s 4lbs worse off that last year and certainly a big player. Nicholls also runs El Bandit and Captain Buck’s, who can’t be dismissed as the yard have won 5 of the last 15 runnings of this! With ALL of the last 15 winners aged 9 or younger then Kings Lad is the only one to fall down on this age trend. Sam Red was a lucky winner at Cheltenham last time out but with only 10-4 to carry is dangerous, while the same can be said for Fingerontheswitch, who is also a recent winner and gets in with a low weight. AUNTY ANN (e/w) is the other course and distance winner in the field so that’s a plus and the Charlie Longsdon camp won this race in 2015 too. A 4lbs rise for that last win looks fair and jockey, Jordan Naylor, who claims 7lbs, gets on well with him. The other I like here is course winner – BIGBADJOHN (e/w) – who was a gutsy winner at the track over 3m2f last month. A 2lb hike for that looks lenient and he also did it the hard way from the front that day. Of the rest, the Tom George yard have their horses in good order at the moment so their consistent SUMKINDOFKING (e/w) can go well too – he was third behind Bigbadjohn here last time but with Noel Fehily riding this time can be expected to get closer.

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.40 – Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
10/13 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/13 – Rated between 119 and 130
9/13 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/13 – Winning favourites
On Tour (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With two McManus-owned runners in the race then the fact Barry Geraghty is riding HELL’S KITCHEN speaks volumes. The Harry Fry yard have been in good form of late so that’s a good sign while his last run at Leopardstown back in February can be ignored being the competitive nature of the contest. He won well the time before at Kempton on Boxing Day and with another Summer on his back should be a stronger horse this season. He’s gone well fresh in the past too, so the break is not too much of a worry. Course and distance winner – Martiloo – could be dangerous off a light weight, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Romain De Senam can be expected to be better for a recent fourth at Market Rasen as that was his first run back from a wind op. King’s Odyssey is another to note, while Warriors Tale and War Sound have good past form to give them a say too.

 

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