This Saturday’s Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle and is staged at Sandown Park racecourse and is often a good guide ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.
In recent years the contest has been a good race for the favourite with 8 of the last 13 market leaders being placed, with five being successful, while winners often go onto contest a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival – with Noland (2006) and the 2018 winner – Summerville Boy – going onto win the Supreme Novices Hurdle, while the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, went onto land the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.
Here at JUICESTORM we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2020 renewal, this year staged on Saturday January 4th.
Recent Tolworth Hurdle Winners
2019 – ELIXIR DU NUTZ (3/1)
2018 – SUMMERVILLE BOY (8/1)
2017 – FINIAN’S OSCAR (11/10 fav)
2016 – YORKHILL (4/9 fav)
2015 – L’AMI SERGE (4/9 fav)
2014 – ROYAL BOY (9/1)
2013 – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (7/2)
2012 – CAPTAIN CONAN (9/1)
2011 – MINELLA CLASS (6/4 fav)
2010 – No Race
2009 – No Race
2008 – BREEDSBREEZE (6/4 fav)
2007 – SILVERBURN (5/1)
2006 – NOLAND (6/4 fav)
2005 – MARCEL (3/1)
2004 – LINGO (5/4 fav)
2003 – THISTHATANDOTHER (11/4)
2002 – MIROS (7/2)
Tolworth Hurdle Betting Trends
14/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/15 – Came from the top three in the market
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/15 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ran at Sandown before
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/15 – Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 21 of the last 27 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Silver Hallmark was a nice winner at Chepstow last time out and can go well, but this race looks to revolve around the top three in the market – Hang In There, proven CD winner Fidderontheroof and SON OF CAMAS. All three head here with growing reputations and also off the back of nice wins so a case really can be made for them all. However, it’s the Nicky Henderson-trained SON OF CAMAS that I’ll be siding with. This 5 year-old was a nice winner on his hurdles debut at Newbury last time out and the second – King Roland – has since come out and won to frank the form. Yes, this will be harder, but with only three career runs should have more improvement to come and also showed he handled soft ground well last time out – a win here and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival might be on the cards. Hang In There is the top-rated in the field so sets the standard and was a top winner at Cheltenham last time out – beating the in-form Pacify – so looks a big player, while Fiddlerontheroof handled the soft/heavy ground well here last time to win by 7 lengths and with that proven course form is sure to have his supporters too. Of the rest, Jeremys Flame comes over from Ireland, but of those at a bigger price the Paul Nicholls runner – CALVA D’AUGE (e/w) might run better than it’s odds suggest. The yard has a nice record in the race – winning it 4 times in the last 15 years – while a recent second behind the useful Thebannerkingrebel might actually turn out to be fair form.
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