Trading the Bet365 4/1+ Offer
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Article by Howard Hutchinson.
Profits from these trades can be very good with zero risk providing we don’t make any silly mistakes.
In a quiet month pre-World Cup, I’ve made over £125 (from £20 bet stakes in 57 races) from this offer May 4th to 31st, and I’ve missed trading 2 weekends.
As I’ve traded more races, I’ve improved my trading strategy and my profits have increased.
The strategy for trading this offer is to bet with Bet365 and lay the same horse on Betfair.
That applies to normal bets and the free bets that we are awarded if we hit a winner.
Stake correctly and we will have guaranteed winnings.
A spreadsheet is already available for BetClub members for trading this offer :-
The spreadsheet that I use can be downloaded using this link Refund_Bet365
The aim of this sheet is to make a series of small gains on every loser, and win back any liabilities plus a bit of profit with our free bet if we hit a winner.
Instructions for inputs are at the bottom of the spreadsheets.
As usual, my spreadsheet shows the stakes required to equalize our trades over a range of odds.
Use the Bet First sheet to trade deposits and the Free Bets sheet to trade free bets.
On the Bet First sheet I have added an input at cell E4 that allows us to adjust the size of our lay stake so that we can aim to make a profit every time we hit a loser.
If we hit a winner, our liabilities are bigger than our bet winnings.
The difference between our winnings and liability is shown in column C.
When we trade our free bet after hitting a winner, we need to recover those column C liabilities and hopefully show a bit of profit on top.
Whilst we are hitting losers, we need to make sure that we continually trade to a small profit shown in column D.
Cell E4 adds a percentage of our bet stake to the liabilities of our lay.
For my trades I set E4 to 70 %.
Set E4 to zero and then to 50 % and you will see that the lay liability increases by half your bet stake.
Set to 70 %, the liability is increased by 70 % of the bet stake.
An advantage of this spreadsheet is that we can see what effect laying over a range of odds will have on our trade without the need to input individual odds into the sheet to see what will happen..
If we can get matched at low odds, our profit increases whilst our liabilities if we hit a winner will of course be less.
Lay at higher odds and the opposite applies.
Initially I set my E4 percentage to 50 %, but after a few trades, I changed it to 70 %.
I was struggling to get decent Lay odds for my trades to make a profit on losers, but I realised that the Bet365 bet odds were very good due to their Best Odds Guarantee.
Free bet, Bet and Lay odds of 9.0 and 9.0 for a free £20 would give guaranteed winnings of £16.99 win or lose, so aiming to recover only £10 was a bit low.
Once I upped the percentage to 70 %, I hit a winner, losing £14.04, but made a profit of £17.79 on the free bet at odds of 15.0 and 15.0 for an overall profit of £3.75 on the 2 trades combined.
Set at 70 % for me, I reckon this spreadsheet now evens out the pits and troughs of trading these Bet365 races, so whether I hit winners or losers doesn’t make much difference to me.
In the long term, I make steady gains.
Test-drive the spreadsheet by inputting some bet and lay odds.
Short odds are best when trading deposits.
Big odds are most profitable when trading free bets, as the bet stake is not returned with winnings.
Bet365 run 2 separate schemes for their 4/1+ offer.
They separate Televised Races from their Feature Races.
If we hit a winner in a televised race, the free bet is awarded in the next televised race, not a feature race if that is the next race.
If we hit a winner in a Feature Race, the free bet is awarded in the next feature race, not a televised race if that is the next race.
I have provided 2 separate spreadsheets for keeping track of the 2 separate schemes.
The odds in columns E and F on those 2 sheets are for interest only and have no effect on the calculations.
When we hit a winner, Bet365 put our winnings into our account quickly, but we have to use our own money for the free bet.
Bet365 then replace our free bet stake if we hit a loser, or pay the winnings if we hit a winner with our free bet.
The free bet stake is NOT returned with winnings.
If we hit consecutive winners, Bet365 will add the winnings plus stake to our account.
Whilst we are hitting consecutive winners, we need to trade each horse as a free bet.
When we hit a loser with a free bet, Bet365 refund the losing stake and leave a message in out Bet365 Inbox to tell us of the refund.
Free bets are not shown in our account or on the betting slip before bet placement.
After hitting my first winner, I telephoned Bet365 as I couldn’t see the free bet on my bet slip.
They told me to use my own money for the next race and after hitting a loser, Bet365 refunded my stake to my account later – no problem.
Knowing that might save you the panic that I had when I couldn’t find my free bet on the bet slip or in my account as the clock ticked towards the next race, the Free Bet race.
When you place a bet, it is essential to check that all your bet stake has been accepted.
Bet365 may only accept part of your stake.
All my bets have so far been £20 stakes.
One of my £20 bets had only a £2.67 accepted, but I had layed that runner for over £20.
Luckily for me the horse lost, but I didn’t know that Bet365 had only accepted £2.67 of my £20 stake.
Now I double-check my bet stake and after placing my lay, I check my liabilities against my potential bet winnings.
Keep your eye on that, as profits could be wiped out in one go if you hit a winner but only have a very small bet stake accepted.
Bet ahead for bigger profits
Last Saturday, the televised races were 15 minutes apart so rather than trade and wait to see if I hit the winner, I decided to bet ahead in a race or 2 in an attempt to find a market move in the next races.
After a few minutes, I found that Bet365 had removed the odds from the race I was looking at and were showing only “S.P.”.
I therefore moved onto the next race which was 3 races ahead of the race that was about to start.
I was pleasantly surprised to find that the odds on offer 3 races ahead were very favourable so I was able to bet and lay for a guaranteed £3 profit on my £20 trade.
Also of course, this meant that my liabilities were very acceptable if this horse won.
I traded the next race as well for another guaranteed £3, and still the original race hadn’t started.
As luck would have it, I hit a winner in a race that I had bet ahead, so to adjust my stake in order to trade the free bet, I simply placed a small bet on Betfair to get the Lay stake to the correct level in the Free Bet race.
If you decide to try betting ahead, all you need to do is place your bet and lays in the normal way, but bet a few races ahead of the current race.
As races take place, in between races, input the bet and lay odds of your trade into the Free Bets sheet and the Bet First sheet.
Compare the 2 sheets and subtract the free bet lay stake from the normal Bet First lay stake.
If you hit a winner with one of your trades, BET the difference between the 2 lay stakes on Betfair, and you will be left with the correct lay stake on your free bet runner.
I did that last Saturday, betting at the same odds as my lay odds to equalize a free bet trade that I had originally set up as a normal trade.
The object of this exercise is to trade at better odds in later races.
It worked for me last Saturday, so it may work again in future.
In previous trades, I had been very happy with £2 to £2.50 profit, so an easy £3 was excellent.
I also hit a winner in a Feature Race on Sunday in which a horse was withdrawn just before the start.
The 10 pence in the pound Rule 4 deduction at Bet365 reduced my winnings by £14, but the reduction factor on Betfair reduced my lay liabilities by £26.
That gave me a very nice free bet profit in the next race as I only needed to recover £6.56 in lost liabilities from the winning race instead of about £14.88.
Another fortunate event was F. Dettori riding 3 winners at Newmarket last Friday.
He was riding in a feature race in the next race, and shortly after I had placed my bet on his horse with Bet365, the odds on Betfair dropped dramatically.
I suspect the market thought that a “Magnificent Seven” was on the cards, but the lovely Hayley Turner pipped him at the post for a very nice £10.38 profit on my successful lay of my £20 bet.
Try making these trades and this could happen to you !!
8 Videos for trading the Bet365 4/1+ offer
Now that I’ve traded quite a few of these races, I’ve done a better write-up and also put 8 videos on YouTube.
The videos demonstrate the spreadsheet, my version of this strategy, and show some live trades.
The other spreadsheet available on here is for trading to a break even situation on all losers, so you will need to weigh up how many winners you are likely to hit in order to make a profit from the free bets if you decide to use that strategy instead of mine.
Here’s the link to my new write-up and the videos.
I’ll add the “Bet Ahead” calculation shown in the videos to the spreadsheet tonight Sunday, I hope.
I may start a Profits Diary of these trades to show my progress.
My profit at present stands at £371.96 from 110 races since May 4th.
That should give you some idea of the returns.
My bet stakes with Bet365 were £20 during May, and are now £30 throughout June.
I’ve withdrawn £1900 so far from this bookie, so maybe this won’t last much longer.
My Betfair account has taken a bit of a bashing, so be prepared to move your cash about a bit to top up your Betfair account.
You will see from the videos that I don’t look for winners.
The names of the horse don’t matter – it’s a close match between bet and lay odds that I look for.
I don’t trade every race, and have completely missed a whole week due to a holiday, and one weekend.
Good luck with finding those “Bet Ahead” lays if you trade these races.
Here is Howard’s Profit Diary from trading these races, from BetSeventyTwo forum.
Bet365 4/1+ offer profit diary. by Betformulas » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:01 pm
Feel free to add your comments and experiences of your Bet365 4/1+ trades.
For me, this has been by far the most profitable “Existing Customer” offer that I have traded.
Follow this link to download the spreadsheet that I use for trading this offer, and to view 8 Youtube videos showing what I do and how I do it.
The videos demonstrate the spreadsheet, my strategy, and show several live trades.
An alternative spreadsheet is available – see main article above.
Since I started to trade this offer on May 4th, my overall profit per race has been about 10% of my bet stake.
So far, I’ve traded 110 races for a total profit of £387.
Included in that total are 3 winners that Bet365 paid out at Starting Price instead of the lower prices that I took when placing my bets, total extra profit £60.
Also, Bet365 have given me 2 x £10 “Loyalty Bonuses”, another free £20.
My stakes have been £20 throughout May and £30 in June.
I’ve only hit 2 x 2 consecutive winners so far, with all other winners coming in singles.
I don’t trade every race and I don’t look for winners.
Just get a close match between bet odds with the bookie and lay odds on Betfair and profits will grow steadily with near zero risk.
I am unable to trade this weekend, so profits should start to flow and grow from Monday July 5th.
I hope you will join in and add your Bet365 4/1+ profits and experiences,
by gusyonok » Wed Jun 30, 2010 10:19 pm
good luck Howard! You’re right, this is a lovely little offerwhich I milked very profitably until the dreaded limited bets kicked in. May your run be long and profitable and the day of the limited bet be far in the future. Sounds like your strategy of not playing max stakes and not playing every race is very shrewd and may allow your run to be longer than mine. I was doing both the horse and dog offers to max stakes so probably pushed it a bit. Be lucky mate!!
In at the deep end
by Betformulas » Fri Jul 02, 2010 6:44 pm
Bet stakes will be £30 this month.
I traded yesterday and today after all.
Kicked off by hitting a winner for liabilities of minus £21.99.
Recovered that ok in the next race, trading the free bet on the complete outsider for an overall profit of £2.97 on the 2 races combined.
Besides trading the free bet at big odds, as this was a stake not returned free bet, I thought that if I got lucky and hit another winner with this complete outsider, I might get paid out at bigger S.P. odds, and the horse was drawn reasonably well in stall 2 over Epsom’s 6 furlongs.
Although my horse Aye Aye Digby lost, the S.P. was 20/1, decimal 21.0, . . . . .I’d bet at 15.0.
Whether the S.P. would have been 21.0 if it had won, we will never know.
I only traded the first race today.
Tried to get matched at some low lay odds, but later made an exit for only £1.42.
I thought I’d hit the winner trading a SkyBet £10 in the same race, so there would heve been zero commission to pay on my successful £33.07 lay, a saving of £33.07 x 0.05 = £1.65, more than I made on my trade, but an amended result showed my Skybet horse finished 2nd.
7.0…….7.0 & 6.8……….. – 21.99
15.0……..16.0……………..25.01……….Fr ee bet
Profit so far, 3 races for £4.39.
A double whammy
by Betformulas » Mon Jul 05, 2010 8:19 pm
The horse I traded with SkyBet last Friday was disqualified – hence the amended result.
That was great for me as SkyBet very kindly paid out on my disqualified horse at the odds I took of 6.5 for a very nice profit of £55, plus I got my £10 stake back.
On top of that, Betfair treated this disqualified horse as a loser, so I also had a successful lay of £10.57.
I would guess that getting paid out on both ends of a trade must be almost as rare as unicorn droppings.
It’s certainly a first for me.
That wasn’t a Bet365 trade, but an unexpected and very nice £65.41 profit from trying to save a bit of commission on my Bet365 trade.
I hit 2 losers today for £6.39 profit on the day from my 2 x Bet365 trades.
July Total so far £10.78.
Total races = 5.
Bet 5.0 . . . Lay 5.1 . . . . . . £3.08
Bet 5.0 . . . Lay 5.1 & 5.0 . . £3.31.
by corner123 » Mon Jul 05, 2010 8:47 pm
Just to enlighten those who are unaware of what has happened with the Skybet horse. Most of the UK bookies pay “double result” in the (rare) event of a disqualification. This means that they pay out on both the disqualified winner and the official winner who is awarded the race. Betfair only pay on the official winner, so if you happen to bet on a disqualified horse with a double result bookie and lay it at Betfair, both sides of the bet win, which is very nice indeed. There is no downside to this, since no bookies that I am aware of pay out on first past the post only.
There is, unfortunately, no way of predicting which horses are likely to get disqualified before the race, so this is simply pot luck.
Betting ahead today
by Betformulas » Wed Jul 07, 2010 10:06 am
I’ll be looking to “Bet Ahead” today on the Channel 4 races from Newmarket.
See the videos for a demo of that.
It’s now just before 11:00 am.
I’ve bet Strawberrydaiquiri in the Newmarket 3:10 race with Bet365 at odds of 6.5 for £30.
Betfair odds are bet 6.2, lay 6.4 at present, so I’ve offered to lay at 6.2 for £35.74..
If I get matched and the horse loses, I’l make £3.95 on my trade.
If it wins, I’ll have £21.82 to recover from my free bet in the next Channel 4 race which will be tommorrow, as this will be the last televised race today.
If this horse wins, recovering £21.82 should be no problem with a free £30.
If I hit a winner in the Newmarket 2:35, the race before this one, I’ll place a small bet on Strawberrydaiquiri to reduce this lay stake as this would then be a free bet.
All nice and straight forward.
by Betformulas » Wed Jul 07, 2010 6:37 pm
I only traded one race yesterday, Tuesday, for a £2.78 profit.
Today, Bet365 covered 4 races on Channel 4.
I hit 4 losers for a nice tidy day and a profit of £11.42.
My lay of Strawberrydaiquiri in the Newmarket 3:10 race was matched at 6.2, but the price drifted later and would maybe have paid at the S.P. of 7.0 if the horse had won.
Bet 8.0…..lay 7.8 and 7.6…£2.78.
Bet 8.0…..lay 7.8………….£2.38
Bet 8.0…..lay 7.6…………£3.22
Bet 9.0…..lay 8.8………….£1.87
Bet 6.5…..lay 6.2………….£3.95.
Those profits could maybe have been bigger if I had waited for lower odds, but that’s gambling not trading.
I prefer to take profits when I see them, so I usually only offer to lay at the odds available, or maybe 1 or 2 ticks lower, always making sure that I can exit with zero loss at higher lay odds than those available when I commence my trade.
Profit so far, £24.98 from 10 races.
Betting ahead Thursday
by Betformulas » Thu Jul 08, 2010 12:06 pm
Newmarket again today on Channel 4.
The time now is 1 o’clock.
I’ve bet Neebras in the 2:00 race and layed on Betfair…. Bet £30 at 5.0 and layed £34.82 at 5.1 on Betfair.
Profit £3.08 if it loses.
I’ve also bet Ransome Note in the 2:35 at 7.0 and trying to get a lay matched at 6.8 but the odds have drifted a little.
Fingers crossed !
Thursday plus Friday
by Betformulas » Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:07 pm
Thursday. 4 races on Channel 4 but one race had 2 very short priced runners which made the odds of the other runners a bit awkward to match with the lay odds on Betfair, so I passed on that race.
Just 3 losers for a profit on the day of £7.71
Bet 5.0 . . . . Lay 5.1. . . . . .£3.08 profit
Bet 7.0. . . . . Lay 6.8. . . . . £2.99
Bet 6.0. . . . . Lay 6.2. . . . ..£1.64
Thursday profit £7.71.
Friday 5 races on Channel 4.
Hit a winner in the 2nd race.
I had bet ahead in 2 of the races by about 12:00 pm, and 2 of the other races well before race time.
The 2nd race only had a few runners and I fancied Hughesie (Richard Hughes) could win this race, so I looked for some big odds in the 3rd race just in case I got a free bet.
All very nice in hindsight you might say, but that was exactly my reasoning at the time of making my original trade on the 3rd race.
I got matched with some nice juicy odds of Bet 17, lay 15.5, and later when I came to place a small bet to adjust my lay stake for the free bet, the Betfair bet odds had increased to a very nice 17.0.
Hughesie rode my winner in the 2nd race, so I placed a £3.39 bet on my Free Bet runner in the 3rd race to reduce my lay stake that I had placed earlier.
If that’s not clear, see the videos for an explanaition of wht I was doing there.
Race 1. Bet 9.0. . . . . .Lay 8.2. . . . . £4.24 profit.
Race 2. Bet 6.0. . . . . Lay.6.0. . . . . . Minus £22.25.
Race 3. Free bet race (I hit a loser with this one) :-
Bet 17.0. . . . . Lay 15.5. . . . Matched much earlier in the day.
Bet on Betfair about twenty mins before race time £3.39 at odds of 17.0. . . . . £29.51 profit.
Profit on the 2 races combined £7.26.
Race 4. Bet 5.5. . . . .Lay 5.6. . . . £2.58 profit
Race 5. Bet 5.0. . . . . Lay 5.1. . . .£3.08.
Profit on the day £17.18.
Total races 18.
Profit so far after commission £49.87.
Bet Ahead Saturday
by Betformulas » Sat Jul 10, 2010 12:29 pm
8 races on Channel 4 today.
The time now is 1:25.
I’ve bet and layed the first 4 races and am hoping to get matched in the 6th race.
1. Heatheq bet 6.0. . lay 5.8
2. Internationaldebut bet 21.0 . . . Lay 19.0
3. Dunelight Bet 6.5. . . lay 6.2
4. Mac’s power Bet 5.0. . . . lay 4.9
Imposing bet 5.0 hopefullty about to get matched at 5.1
Hope they all lose for a nice tidy day.
Nice juicy odds in race 2 for the free bet if I hit the winner in race 1.
8 lovely losers
by Betformulas » Sat Jul 10, 2010 8:56 pm
I hit 8 losers today for a nice straightforward afternoon’s trading.
Gave £240 back to the bookie at £30 per race which, believe it or not, was a bit of a relief.
I’ve withdrawn £1900 from this bookie since May 4th, and I had another embarassingly large balance in there earlier in the week, so emptying my bookie account today balanced things up a bit.
Hopefully the bookie will be pleased with that if they look at my account.
I’ve made sure that I have been placing my bets (and my lays of course) well in advance of race time so that this bookie has no excuse for limiting my stakes other than if I happen to win too much.
These were todays odds and profits :-
Bet 6.0 . . . . Lay 5.8 . . . £3.89 profit.
Bet 21.0 . . . lay 19.0 . . . £2.69
Bet 6.5 . . . . Lay 6.2 . . . £3.96
Bet 5.0 . . . . Lay 4.9 . . .. £4.49
Bet 5.0 . . . . lay 5.2 . . . . £2.42
Bet 5.0 . . . . lay 5.1 . . . . £3.08
Bet 15.0 . . . .lay 14.0 . . . £2.18
Bet 5.5 . . . . lay 5.6 . . . . £2.58
Total profit today £25.28.
Total July races so far 26 for a profit of £75.15.
A lot of small gains add up for a surprisingly nice profit.
With bet stakes of £30, that is of course approximately 10% profit of the bet stake per race, so far.
In those 26 races, I’ve hit only 2 winners.
I don’t anticipate trading tomorrow, Sunday.
Sunday and Monday
by Betformulas » Mon Jul 12, 2010 7:24 pm
Mamnaged to get to my computer on Sunday after all.
Bet 7.0 . . . . . Lay 6.6. . . . £4.02 profit
Bet 6.0. . . . . .Lay 5.9 . . . . £3.30
Monday Not so lucky in the one race that I traded..
The odds of my horse drifted which would have been nice if it had won as I would have been paid at S.P. bigger than the odds that I took.
Unfortunately it lost.
Bet 5.0 . . . . .Lay 5.6 . . . . . £0.01
Jsut escaped there without a loss.
Profit on the 2 days £7.33.
July profit so far £82.48.
Number of races 29 with 2 winners in those 29 races.
Tuesday to Saturday
by Betformulas » Sat Jul 17, 2010 4:13 pm
Traded both races. . . both lost.
Bet 7.0 . . . . . . . Lay 7.0 . . . . . £2.02 profit
bet 5.5 . . . . . . . Lay 5.4 . . . . . . £2.55
Wed. 2 losers.
Bet 6.0 . . . . . . . Lay 6.2 . . . . . . £1.64
Bet 5.5 . . . . . . . Lay 5.5 . . . . . . £3.19
Thursday no trades
Friday 1 loser.
Bet 7.0 . . . . . . . Lay 6.8 . . . . . . .£2.99
Traded 6 of the 7 races available.
Placed all my initial bets and lays well before race times.
Hit 2 consecutive winners so needed to place 2 small bets to get the lay stakes right in the 2 Free Bet races.
Bet 7.0 . . . . . . Lay 6.8 . . . . . . £2.99 profit.
Bet 8.0 . . . . . . Lay 7.8 . . . . . . £2.35
Bet 13.0 . . . . . .lay 12.0 . . . . . .£2.81
Bet 9.0 . . . . . . Lay 8.4 . . . . . . Minus £20.26 from hitting a winner.
Bet 6.5 . . . . . . .Lay 6.2 . . . . . .£26.83 profit after placing a bet of £8.91 @ odds of 6.0 on Betfair to reduce my lay stake as this was now a free bet.
That also won for another free bet in the next race.
Bet 11.0 . . . . . .Lay 11.5 . . . . . £24.89 profit after placing a bet of £4.62 @ odds of 11.0 again to reduce my lay stake for the free bet.
This last runner lost.
Caught out by the odds drifting there after placing my initial £30 bet.
Total July profit £116.85.
Total races 41.
4 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
Sunday, Monday, Tuesday
by Betformulas » Tue Jul 20, 2010 7:59 pm
Sunday July 18th
I only traded one race.
I placed my bet and lay well before race time.
In the last few minutes before “The Off”, the odds dirfted quite dramatically.
My horse finished 2nd beaten just “A head”.
The Starting Price finished at 8.0 (Bet365 pay at S.P. if it is bigger than the price we take), which would have given me an extra £60 profit if my horse had just been 2 or 3 feet quicker.
That was close . . . . very close.
Bet odds 6.0 . . . .Lay 5.9 . . . . £3.30 profit.
Just one race traded again, but I hit a winner.
Bet 5.5 . . . . Lay 5.4 . . . . Minus £21.69.
In the Free Bet race, 3 horses were very short in the betting which left only 2 runners with realistic lay odds on Betfair compared to the Bet365 bet odds.
Remember that if the free bet is “Stake not returned” it is more profitable to trade big odds rather than short odds, and anyway, I was looking for odds bigger than 5.0.
Bet 12.0 . . . . . Lay 12.0 . . . Plus £26.23.
Profit from the winning race and the Free Bet race combined, £26.23 minus £21.69 = Plus £4.54.
In the other feature race, I bet at odds of 9.0 with Bet365 but before my lay was matched, 2 horses were withdrawn.
The odds of my runner dropped to around the 7.0 mark.
Stupidly, I put lay odds of 7.0 into my spreadsheet and left the bet odds at 9.0.
I got my lay matched at odds of 7.2 but realised shortly afterwards that it would have made more sense to input the new Bet365 bet oidds of 7.0 into the sheet as well before placing my lay.
Just as I was getting a bit worried about that, the favourite was also withdrawn which left my runner as the new favourite at odds of about 5.0.
The reduction factor had reduced my lay odds to 5.08.
With 3 short priced runners now withdrawn, I would have substantial Rule 4 deductions from any Bet365 winnings if my horse won.
Luckily for me, the jockey was “Bumped and unseated” at the 3rd fence, so I esxaped with a very nice but undeserved profit.
Bet 9.0 . . . lay . . . . 7.2 . . . £9.09 profit.
July profit so far £133.79.
Total races 44, with 5 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
by gusyonok » Tue Jul 20, 2010 9:06 pm
very nice going Howard-keep it up!!
by corner123 » Wed Jul 21, 2010 8:14 am
Excellent stuff Howard.
It could be a good day for this offer on Saturday with racing on both Channel 4 and BBC, so both the C4 and the Feature Race offers will be on.
Wed & Thurs – 2 nice bonuses
by Betformulas » Thu Jul 22, 2010 9:01 pm
Only one race traded today for a very small profit.
Those very nice chaps at Bet365 awarded me a 3rd £10 Loyalty Bonus.
That’s £30 worth of those so far since May 4th and I haven’t traded anything else on their web site other than the 4/1+ offer.
I have no idea what prompts Bet365 to come up with these Loyalty Bonuses.
I thought they arrived after sizeabe withdrawals from my Bet365 account, but looking back at my records, that may not be the case.
Bet 21.0 . . . . . Lay 20.0 . . . . . .£1.05 profit. . . Plus Loyalty Bonus £10 = £11.05.
I performed very poorly today in both feature races, but Bet365 came to the rescue.
Bet 8.0 . . . Lay 8.4 . . . . . £zero profit.
Bet 5.0 . . . . Lay 6.6 . . . . Minus £4.68.
In this last race, I bet quite some time before Race Time on a Henry Cecil runner at Doncaster.
The whole race offered no decent odds for quite a while, so I gambled on this runner shortening but the opposite happend so I made an exit with my lay for a potential loss of £4.68 if the horse lost, and a naughty looking liability if it won . . . . . Ugh.
That’s the first time I’ve managed to trade so badly for quite some time.
However, just before Race Time, the odds of my runner drifted quite a bit, but lady luck was on my side tonight and it won !!
Bet365 paid me out at Starting Price of 6.0 (I bet at 5.0) so the £150 winnings covered my £149.24 lay liabailities for a £0.76 profit but the good news is that I have a free bet in the first feature race tomorrow.
That should add well over £20 to my profits.
July total so far £145.60.
Total races 47 with 6 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
Friday and Saturday
by Betformulas » Sat Jul 24, 2010 8:09 pm
Friday July 23rd.
Only traded the Free Bet race today, taking some big odds for a very nice profit.
Bet odds 19.0 . . . . . . Lay 20.0 . . . . . .£25.72 profit.
Saturday Jul 24th.
Traded 6 races on Channel 4, and 3 Feature Races on BBC.
I placed all my bets and lays well before race times.
I’m finding Saturday odds are much better than mid week odds, so if you are unable to trade these races due to being at work, Saturdays races are definitely worth looking at.
The 2 schemes, Channel 4 and BBC, are listed separately below.
I hit one winner today in the very first race that I traded – – – the 2nd race on Channel 4.
Bet 5.5 . . . . . Lay 5.4 . . . . .Minus £21.69
Bet 6.0 . . . . . Lay 5.9 . . . . Placed a small bet on Betfair to reduce my lay stake for this Free Bet £24.36 profit.
Profit on the 2 races combined = 24.36 minus 21.69 = £2.67.
Bet 6.5 . . . . . lay 6.4 . . . . . £2.87
Bet 6.0 . . . . . lay 5.9 . . . . . £3.30
Bet 10.0 . . . . Lay 9.8 . . . . . £1.50
Bet 11.0 . . . . Lay 10.0 . . . . £3.72
BBC Races :-
Bet 5.0 . . . . .Lay 5.3 . . . . .£1.78
Bet 13.0 . . . . Lay 11.5 . . . .£4.26
Bet 7.0 . . . . .Lay 6.8 . . . . .£2.99
Total Saturday profit £23.08.
My maths for my previous July Totals may have contained a mistake as I missed a few races out, so this is the total so far :-
July so far £208.90.
Total races 57 with 7 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
I’m hoping that Glorious Goodwood next week will enable me to get this months winnings above the £250 mark from trading this 4/1+ offer.
Sunday to Thursday
by Betformulas » Thu Jul 29, 2010 8:42 pm
Sunday July 25th
Just one race.
Bet 6.5 . . . . .Lay 6.4 . . . . £2.87 profit.
Monday, nothing trdaed.
Tuesday July 27th.
Bet 7.0 . . . . Lay 7.0 . . . . £ 2.02 profit.
Bet 5.0 . . . . Lay 4.9 . . . . Minus 21.61 as this was a winner.
Bet 6.0 . . . Lay 5.9 . . . . . plus £24.36 from the Free Bet for +£2.74 on the 2 races combined.
Bet 8.0 . . . . Lay 7.8 & 8.2 . . £ 1.27
Tuesday’s profit £6.11
Not much from 4 races, but £6 per day adds up to almost £200 per month.
Wednesday July 28th.
Bet 9.0 . . . . Lay 8.6 . . . . . Minus 20.98 as this was a winner.
Bet 7.5 . . . . Lay 7.4 . . . . £25.20 from the Free Bet for £4.22 profit on the 2 races combined.
Bet 7.0 . . . . Lay 6.8 . . . . Minus £21.43 as this was another winner
Thursday July 29th
Bet 5.0 . . . . Lay 4.7 . . . . £24.51 for a profit on this and the previous race combined of £3.08.
Bet 7.0 . . . Lay 6.8 . . . . Minus 21.43 as this was another winner
Bet 9.5 . . . . Lay 9.0 . . . .£26.09 from the Free Bet for a profit of 4.67 on the 2 races combined.
Bet 21.0 . . . . Lay 18.0 . . . £3.01.
In this last race, I bet only £20 as my Betfair account was hitting rock bottom.
Profit Sunday to Thursday, £37.93
July profit so far £229.91.
Total races = 69 with 11 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
Increased profit from hitting winners.
by Betformulas » Thu Jul 29, 2010 9:09 pm
Hitting a few winners this wek has really slowed my profits down, so I got thinking tonight (Thursday) of a solution.
I’ve realised that I could be making better profits from winning races.
This Bet365 offer is unique in that we get a series of free bets, providing we keep hitting winners.
I have realised that we should trade with that in mind.
So far, every time I have hit a winner, I have traded the following free bet for an equal win or lose profit.
That has recovered my loss on the preceeding race ok, but profit on top of recovering those liabilities has been quite small.
Now suppose we trade to break even on the Win side of the trade when we trade the free bet instead of reducing the lay stake for an equal win or lose profit – – – which is what I have been doing.
If I trade my £30 free bet to break even if I hit a winner :-
A 2nd winner would leave me with the same liabilities from hitting the first winner.
A 3rd winner would do the same – – I would still have the same liabilities to recover.
A loser would give me a £30 successful lay which would be bigger than the present level of my free bet lays of £24 or £26 or so.
To trade the free bets to break even, I would of course need some decent bet and lay odds.
I already have a spreadsheet for this, so I’ll give this a test drive the next time I hit a winner and report back.
If I can’t get some decent odds, I’ll lay as much as possible for zero loss if I hit a 2nd winner.
I hope that makes sense.
Once I’ve done this a couple of times, I’ll chuck another video together for a demo.
If trading to break even, I would lose out if I hit 2 cosecutive winners when compared to the equal win or lose profit method.
At present, using the equal win or lose profit method, when I trade the first free bet, I recover all liabilities from the first winning race, so a 2nd cosecutive winner is all profit when trading a 2nd free bet.
So far this month, that has only happend once in 11 winning races, so if I’d been using the Break Even method, 9 races would have shown a decent profit instead of my £2 to £4 or so.
The month end
by Betformulas » Sat Jul 31, 2010 10:23 pm
Friday July 30th . . . No trades today.
Saturday July 31st.
Traded 5 races, with the 5th race going badly wrong.
Bet 5.5 . . . . . . Lay 5.5 . . . . . . £3.19 profit.
Bet 6.0 . . . . . . Lay 5.9 . . . . . . £3.30
Bet 6.5 . . . . . . Lay 6.2 . . . . . . .£3.96
Bet 5.0 . . . . . . Lay 5.1 . . . . . . .£30.08
Bet 5.0 . . . . . .Lay 8.0 . . . . . . . Minus £1.50
I offered to lay this last runner at 5.1 but it drifted quite badly.
I waited for updates of the odds on Bet365, and once the bet odds on television had reached 13/2 (7.5), I stepped in and layed at odds of 8.0.
I added the potential extra £75 (that payout at S.P. would give me – an extra 2 .5 times my £30 bet stake) to the liabilities on my spreadsheet and layed a straight £30 at 8.0.
If this horse had won and I had been paid out at S.P. bet odds of 7.5, I would only have needed to recover about £15 from the free bet in the next race.
The horse hit the front about 2 furlongs out, but faded to finish out of the frame.
I didn’t know whether to cheer it on or be pleased that it was dropping back.
£1.50 isn’t much damage for such a bad trade, so a loser was ok.
Total for the whole month of July £241.94 . . . . . . just short of my 250 target.
Total races 74 with 11 winners, 2 of which were consecutive.
241.94 divided by 74 = £3.27 per race which is 10.9% profit on each £30 bet stake.
Having demonstrated how profits can build up using this straegy I don’t intend to update this thread quite so regularly.
I’ll put an update in once I’ve hit a couple more winners, hopefully for bigger profits on the free bets.
I’ll also update if anything unusual happens whilst I’m trading this offer or if I think of any other improvements.
I think I’ve covered most of the pitfalls.
Good luck if you give this a go.
by mikeymp » Sat Jul 31, 2010 11:02 pm
+£27 for me today using the same £30 stakes.. just hit the one winner , I tend to bet as late as possible and can usually find a small arb or of course you can use the arb finder to find one in advance , very basic strategy as I am not the brightest Back £30 lay £36 gives me four pound odd profit per race which soon adds up and Ive been lucky and not been limited at all despite milking it for years
Dead heat = no free bet
by Betformulas » Wed Aug 04, 2010 7:12 pm
I traded both feature races today and hit 2 winners.
The first race was a dead heat with my horse being one of the 2 dead heaters of course.
I had no idea how Bet365 would deal with this.
I thought I might qualify for a £15 bet – half my £30 bet stake, but that didn’t happen.
To cut a long story short, there was no free bet in the next race, but I have been awarded a free bet in the first race tommorrow for my “Normal” winner in today’s 2nd race.
So if you hit a winner in a dead heat, I suggest you trade the next race as if that race had been a loser.
Judging by my experience today, there won’t be a free bet from your dead heat winner.
I came out with a good profit today but I won’t even attempt to explain my trades as there were withdrawals in both races and a rule 4 in the 2nd race.
My lay odds on Betfair were reduced before the start of both races, so I haven’t even bothered to try and work out the results of my 2 trades individually.
The bottom line is that I’m well up on the day from these 2 races with a free bet to come in the first race tommorrow.
With zero liabilities to recover, that will be all profit.
by mikeymp » Thu Aug 05, 2010 6:42 am
I did the same Howard , checked with live chat and they told me I would still qualify for the free bet in the second race , sure enough my £30 losing bet was refunded in full
by Betformulas » Thu Aug 05, 2010 7:58 am
Please ignore my previous post.
Having thought about it overnight, there is no way that I could tell from my account whether I had been awarded a free bet or not in the 2nd race.
Bet365 only give a refund after we hit a loser with our free bets, so as I have hit 2 in a row so far, my refund hasn’t yet been awarded, although they have put a message in my in-box about the free bet to come today, Thursday.
So, I’ve been into the T & C”s and these are the rules :-
“The 4/1 limit refers to the adjusted odds after any dead-heat, Rule 4 or unnamed joint/co-favourite”
To hit a free bet after a dead heat, maybe we would need to have bet at around 8/1 (decimal 9.0) in order to have bet 4/1 or bigger after our stakes have been halved after a dead heat, or something bigger than 4/1 if a rule 4 had chipped away at the returns.
Maybe you did that Mikeymp.
My original bet odds were 5.5 and Betfair certainly introduced their Reduction Factor after I’d placed my lay.
I would therefore guess that I didn’t qualify for a free bet at those odds.
Anyway, I’m glad we’ve sorted that out for future races.
Good luck with your dead heaters !
by mikeymp » Thu Aug 05, 2010 8:52 am
Indeed Howard I was on lastkingofscotland @ 11 so that explains it…thanks.
by AlistairH » Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:44 pm
Having suffered dead heats on numerous occasions when doing the equivalent dog offer in the past, I can confirm that (roughly in the words of Bet365) the PROFIT received on your runner, i.e half your stake x the odds taken, must be equal or greater than the profit if your bet had been placed at the qualifying odds.
Which is all just a convoluted way for Bet365 to avoid paying you a free bonus. Wouldn’t it have been much better customer service to give you a free bet to half your stake?
It doesn’t matter to me since I’m banned from receiving bonuses and limited to stakes of £3.65 (believe it or not).
A 2nd lay
by Betformulas » Sun Aug 08, 2010 7:21 pm
Saturday August 7th
I traded 6 Channel 4 races and hit 6 losers for a nice tidy day.
In the last of these races, I didn’t get matched at the lay odds I offered on Betfair, and eventually those odds drifted quite significantly.
This is what I did to retrieve the situation :-
The lay odds started to drift before I got matched so I made an exit for a lose profit of only 62 pence.
In anticipation of being paid out at bigger S.P. odds, I layed again at bigger odds.
Redcar 3:40 Krypton Factor. My bet stake was £30.
I bet Krypton Factor at odds of 6.0 with Bet365.
I offered to lay on Betfair at 6.0 for a lose profit of £2.73.
Eventually, the odds drifted, so I layed at 6.4 to exit for £0.62 lose profit.
At this point, I thought I had “Scratched” my trade.
The odds shown on television then drifted to 13/2 (decimal 7.5) so I knew I would be paid out at least another £30, maybe £45 if this horse won.
So, I divided £30 by 8.0 as the lay odds were now 9.0 which gave me £3.75.
I could afford to lay another £3.75 and still cover my liabilities if this horse won.
Just to be safe, I layed another £3 matched at 8.6 for a total profit of £3.47 on my trade after commission.
If I had made my exit at 6.4 and done nothing, I would have made £0.62 from my successful lay.
If the horse had won, I would probably have been £30 or £45 better off.
It finished well beaten.
Instead of making 62 pence, my profit was £3.47.
If the horse had won, the liabilities would easily have been recoverd in the next Free Bet race.
August profit so far £88.95 from 12 races.
2 winning races, one of which was a dead heat with no free bet.
by Betformulas » Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:19 pm
I’ve created a video of my extra lay described in my previous post.
This is a tactic that I use quite regularly now.
If I do nothing after the projected S.P. odds increase, I stand to win quite a lot extra if the horse wins, but nothing extra if it loses.
Placing these extra lays gives me guaranteed extra smaller profit whatever the result of the race.
Here’s a link to my video :-
Also, I have been trading to break even in my Free Bet races which has been an improvement.
Doing that has enabled me to increase my lay stakes by 80% of my Bet stakes instead of 70%.
When I get time, I’ll chuck another video together to demonstrate that.
Profits are now growing faster than before due to these 2 improvements.
Good luck if you trade these races.
Break even on Free Bet races
by Betformulas » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:22 pm
I’ve put a video together to demonstrate the Break Even sheet that I have added to the spreadsheet file that I provided for making these trades.
The video concerns ONLY free bet races, not the normal races that do not involve a free bet.
View the video here :-
I’ve uploaded an updated Excel file with this new sheet in it.
If you download the file and it opens in Read Only mode, use “Save As” to re-name the file.
It should then be ok to use.
The download link is back on the opening page of this Forum thread.
I will be resuming regular updates of this profit diary every few days, probably starting in September.
by corner123 » Wed Aug 25, 2010 7:25 am
Thanks for the links to the videos and spreadsheet Howard. Its just worth reinforcing the fact that the original back and lay in the video will only work if you are going to get a free bet if the horse wins (as in the Bet365 races).
One thing you do need to be careful of though is that sometimes a horse will drift in the betting and then just before the race starts the odds suddenly shorten. This is more common with favourites than the longer priced horses that you might be looking at for this offer, but you should be aware of the possibility.
£100 bonus offer
by Betformulas » Thu Sep 02, 2010 9:56 pm
Bet365 have a 25% bonus offer – make a deposit and they will add 25% to your deposit up to £100.
For the maximum bonus, that’s deposit £400, get £100 free.
With that in mind, I’ve been trying to hit some losers to get my Betr365 account down ready for a deposit.
Unfortunately, I’ve hit a winner or 3, so the opposite has happened – I’ve now got quite a large amount in my account.
I could just make a withdrawal and then deposit, but I would prefer to play the game and not look like a bonus abuser.
So, I’m now thinking of trading more than one horse in some races.
If the odds permit, I’ll be targeting races that have 2 horses priced at odds below 5.0 to do that.
In theory, that should make me hit a few more losing races and reduce my account balance.
Hopefully, I’ll still make a profit whilst I’m doing that.
with a £100 bonus to come (I hope), I can afford to trade to a small loss in some races and still come out in front in the long term once the bonus is added. . . . if I ever get to that point.
Today, I had a very nice trade with a horse that drifted.
I bet at odds of 6.0 and layed at 6.6.
A withdrawal reduced my lay odds a bit on Betfair as the Reduction Factor was applied well before race time.
As the race approached, the odds drifted out to 8.5 with most bookies.
That gave me bet odds of an extra 2.5 to play with so I layed again at odds of 9.8 and 10. for another £12.
That may sound expensive, but here are the maths of that :-
My bet stake with Bet365 was £50 at odds of 6.0 for winnings of £250 if this horse won.
Extra odds of 2.5 would give £50 x 2.5 = £125 extra at the bigger S.P. if it won.
Lay odds were about 10, so divide 125 by 10 = £12.5.
I layed £10 at 9.8 and £2 at 10.0 for an extra £12 layed.
Combined, my average lay odds were 6.99 with liabilities of minus £389.23.
Potential winnings were £250 + 125 = £375.
If the horse won I would only need to recover 389.23 – 375 = £14.23 with the free bet in the next race.
The horse lost so I had a successful lay of £64.94 which gave me a profit of £11.69 or thereabouts after commission.
Much better than the £0.29 loss that I had anticipated when I first set up my trade.
September profit so far = £11.00 . . . . . . . yes folks, I lost 69 pence trading the other race today.
by Betformulas » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:27 pm
It’s my birthday today.
To help me celebrate, several bookies have given me free bets totalling £32 so far.
I traded one of them today in a Bet365 4/1+ race, hoping to reduce my commission if I hit a winner.
That gave me 2 horses in the same race.
If one won, I would have had liabilites which would have given me zero commission to pay on the other successful lay.
Both horses lost, so no commission saved, but a vey nice £22.57 profit from the 2 races today.
The bet odds of the my runner in the 2nd race drifted so I was able to place an extra £6 lay – that’s more than I would have made on the trade if the odds hadn’t drifted, so I more than doubled my profit on that race.
September profit so far £33.57 including the free £10 bet with another bookie.
Total races 4.
My strategies at present
by Betformulas » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:29 pm
Just a quick re-cap of the strategies I am now using for the Bet365 4/1+ offer.
Bet with Bet365 and lay the same horse on Betfair of course..
I now Bias the staking in favour of a lose outcome by adding 80% of my bet stake to the liability of the lay, using the spreadsheet to show the stakes required.
If I hit a winner, bias the staking in the Free Bet race to break even if the horse wins.
That gives a bigger profit from a successful lay if the Free Bet horse loses.
If it wins, do the same again in the next Free Bet races until I hit a loser.
If I hit a winner, profits are biggest from a loser in the first Free Bet race.
If I hit consecutive winners, profits decline as I try to trade out by hitting a loser.
Horses that drift in the betting can be good news, especially if I have already placed my lay.
If the bet odds of a horse get bigger, Bet365 will pay out at te bigger Starting Price odds if they are bigger than the odds we take when placing our original bet.
Therefore, if we have placed our lay, we can lay again in anticipation of the bigger payout.
Check the bet odds across a range of bookies using easyodds.com or a similar web site.
If most bookies show bigger odds than our original bet odds, divide the potential increase of payout by the current lay odds and lay again for a bit extra.
Dividing by the current lay odds, rather than the current odds minus 1, gives a bit extra on the bet side of that smaller trade, just in case the horse wins.
Example. We have bet £50 at odds of 5.0 with Bet365.
The odds increase, so that we now see most bookies offering odds of 6.0.
We can expect and extra £50 payout if the horse wins with an S.P. of 6.0.
Just before the race starts, place an extra lay.
If the lay odds on Betfair are 8.0, divide 50 by 8 = £6.
Lay an extra £6 maybe by offering to lay at 7.6 or 7.8.
If we lay £6 at odds of 8.0, our liability from that extra lay is 7 x £6 = £42, but we expect an extra £50, so there is a bit of slack in that extra lay.
My videos are not very concise.
I’ve been fine tuning these strategies as I have gained experience of these trades, so I hope this short write-up makes it clear what I am doing at present.
The extra lays are certainly having an impact on my profits, so watch for those drifters.
The other thing that I do is bet ahead.
I avoid the mad rush of the last 10 – 15 minutes before Race Time.
Usually, I bet over an hour before the race starts, and often bet in several races before racing even starts, especially on a Saturday.
If I hit a winner, I place a small bet in the Free Bet race to reduce my lay stake to the correct level for the free bet race.
Good luck with your trades,
Another Loyalty Bonus
by Betformulas » Wed Sep 08, 2010 10:33 pm
Bet365 e-mailed me again today, giving me another Loyalty Bonus of £10.
I thought some time back that withdrawals from my account had prompted a couple of Loyalty Bonuses.
After making a withdrawal on Sunday and then another one today, Wednesday, this e-mail turned up almost straight away this afternoon.
Maybe a coincidence, maybe not, but certainly someyting to bear in mind if you deal with this very generous bookie.
You may gather from my previous videos that I don’t take many risks with my trading.
One result of my caution is that I often place my lays much too early and exit my trades too soon.
No doubt we all feel like that !
I often seem to miss a significant drop in the odds.
To try and get more out of my trades, I’ve decided to place a few small lays over a few ticks rather than just place a single lay to exit my trade, and wait a bit longer whilst these get matched – hopefully.
A problem with that is that if only 1 or 2 of my smaller lays get matched, I need to be able to work out the remaining lay stake that is required to exit my trade.
I’ve built a sheet for that, and started yesterday, using a few small lays instead of one large lay.
Guess what ?
Odds movements downwards were non-existant yesterday for me, and no decent odds when I looked today, so I didn’t do anything today.
Doncaster is on Channel 4 on Friday so hopefully I’ll be able to get up and running with this new refinement.
Here’s a video of what I’m doing with my lays :-
September so far for this offer £71.01 including today’s free tenner.
Re: Another Loyalty Bonus
by hudders » Fri Sep 10, 2010 2:29 am
Loyalty bonuses are every Wednesday, not linked to withdrawals. I’d guess its linked to turnover thou I obviously don’t know the amount needed.
Testing of Laying in Bits
by Betformulas » Sat Sep 11, 2010 9:00 pm
Thanks for the Loyalty Bonus info Hudders.
After trading a few races by splitting my lay stakes over several odds increments, I found that it was not an improvement.
Quite the opposite.
I usually got one or 2 lays matched at odds below my bet odds, but as the odds fluctuated, I found myself mostly trading out by laying the unmatched part of my lays at higher odds than my bet odds.
Also, I found I was missing out on laying a little bit extra if the odds lengthened as I hadn’t completed my initial trade a couple of times.
My profits took a bit of a dive.
Today, Saturday, I reverted to just taking profits as I saw them or offering to lay a tick or 2 below my Bet365 bet odds.
Profits got back on track today, and although I didn’t hit anything that lengthened in the betting, I was in a position to lay a little bit extra if one of my horses drifted in the betting.
I suppose we all see the odds move in our favour after we have traded out, and wish we were still in a position to make a bit more profit.
I tried to take advantage of that, but maybe I have been seeing a few less steamers than I thought.
There’s nothing wrong in trying something different.
In this case it didn’t work for me.
September profit so far, £121.32 from 28 races. . . . . . About £4.33 profit per race.
I’m now using the max bet stake of £50 per race.
In 2021 TradeHost traded 7,937 Betfair UK, IE, US & AU horse racing and greyhound markets.
2022 saw TradeHost become even more profitable with 22,698 Betfair markets traded.