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Man of Mystery

I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to Adam Todd's BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

Latest posts by Man of Mystery (see all)

• The TopTrap Greyhound Profit And Loss Account On Betfair - March 17, 2022
• Betfair Best Execution – 11 Requested & Filled At 320 - January 16, 2022
• BTB System e-book - March 13, 2015

The Nugget Collection – Trading Two Markets

Bingo Little has provided this excellent video from yesterday’s Oman v Brazil game, showing how to use two markets to gain a profit.

Some of you may know these guys as Adster and Bingo Little or collectively as The Nugget Crew.

This video is part of their “Nugget Collection” over at www.tradingfootball.eu

These videos demonstrate the importance of determining a strategy that fits the criteria of a selected match, is adaptable when the game is “in-play” and has various exit points for closing both a winning and possible losing trade.

Correct Score markets, Match Odds and Under/Over 2.5 goal markets are the most popular markets as evidenced by the amount of liquidity available. But we show how trading different markets in the same match can produce dividends. It`s a balancing act that requires knowledge of the movements of odds in markets that are mutually linked to each other.

I have been playing around with some of the strategies myself and been making consistent profits as I go and do hope to be covering these in much more detail during the coming weeks.

The video above shows what can be done by using the under 1.5 goals market to effectively cover some red areas when trading the correct score market, nice out of the box thinking and shows the potential in this type of trading.

Forum discussion of this video from BetSeventyTwo

by Darren » Fri Nov 20, 2009 10:18 am

Had a very lucky escape on this one, wish I had made a video now.

Disregared rule one, no TV game but over £40K so thought I would be ok. Backed Unders 1.81 – £150 and 0-10 – £15 at 6 about 30 mins before KO. Missed the KO and was following on Livescore, coming up to 10 mins, no liquidity to get out (presumably nobody else had pics or sound so the trading was very haphazard), put an order in market (over £70K matched in the unders but virtually nothing available to lay), got partially matched (was looking to make £16.50 to cover my £15 on the 0-10 market), now over 12 mins on Livescore, game suspends, comes back, unders at 2.6 – 2.7 and remember 0-10 market suspends at KO.

Livescore still showing 0-0, and 13 mins, 14 mins, refresh betfair balance, gone up over £70 !! Livescore 0-0 still, eventually get matched to close unders trade for £20 loss, eventually Livescore updates, 0-1, 10th min and Betfair paid on the 0-10 market.

Very lucky and confirms, not to play without Pics or Commentary and its natural effect on Liquidity. So discipline in following the rules is rule number one itself.

Next time I won’t be so lucky I am sure. However does show the potential if you get an early goal.

by Betformulas » Fri Nov 20, 2009 8:26 pm

I don’t want to be negative about this, but I paper traded 6 International games on Wednesday night to see what happened.

Note that NONE of these games qualified as per all 3 of these rules :-

Under 2.5 Goals odds 2.0 – 2.2

Good liquidity.

Teams must be evenly matched with no strong favourite.

Only 2 games had Under 2.5 Goals odds over 2.0, but BOTH had a strong favourite.

Germany – Ivory Coast Bet 2.02, Lay 2.04

Austria – Spain Bet 2.14, Lay 2.18

Unfortunately, covering 6 games, I missed the crucial 9 to 10 minutres of the Germany game.

A penalty was scored at 11 minutes.

I don’t know at what point the match was suspended for that.

In the Spain game, a goal was scored at 6 minutes, bringing the insurance bet into the reckoning.

0 – 10 mins Bet odds 4.9.

Using stakes of £250 and £25 as per the video, the Spain game showed a loss of £36.20 at 7 minutes at odds of Lay 4.6 for Under 2.5 Goals.

At 9 minutes the Under 2.5 Goals Lay odds were bigger at 4.8 for minus £41.04 just before the 2nd goal.

A second goal went in at 9 minutes, so any delay in making an exit would have cost minus £111.35 at odds of Lay 13.0 at 11 minutes, or minus £103.86 at Lay odds of 11.0 at 16 minutes.

In the other games, there were no goals in the first 10 minutes.

France – Ireland.

Bet Under 2.5 at 1.67, lay at 1.54 at 10 minutes = Minus £3.90.

Bosnia – Portugal.

Bet Under 2.5 at 1.86, lay at 1.63 at 10 minutes = PLUS £10.28.

Slovenia – Russia.

Bet Under 2.5 at 1.72, lay at 1.54 at 10 minutes = PLUS £4.22.

Denmark – USA.

Bet Under 2.5 at 1.65, lay at 1.64 at 10 minutes = Minus £23.48.

For all the profits and losses shown above, I have used the most advantageous odds that I recorded to show the most profit and the least loss to make this method look as good as possible.

Only 2 of the 5 games that I recorded properly showed a profit.

We can only guess at how the Germany – Ivory Coast game traded.

This is of course a very small sample, but I’ll be looking at more games before I get carried away with this strategy.

Hopefully, games that meet all 3 requirements of the rules may produce a profit.

Howard.

by hudders » Fri Nov 20, 2009 9:07 pm

I’m going to have alook into this. The video does obviously have the advantage that the price does move quite abit on Unders before the game even kicks off.

by Gentari » Sat Nov 21, 2009 7:49 am

As with all the footy trading I recommend a good liquidity TV match, have a look at Premiership matches this weekend and you will find the amount in play is great.

Also you have the live pictures so that you can decide on your time of exit.

if you don’t have live pictures then check out the Football Trading Links for some streams

Good Luck

by Darren » Sat Nov 21, 2009 9:50 am

Thanks Howard and Gentari. Sure this is no foolproof strategy but if if we can tweak it to it’s optimum settings hopefully could be a long term little extra weapon to have.

by Darren » Sat Nov 21, 2009 12:28 pm

Am on the Liverpool / Man City game.

Unders 2.10 / 0-10 5.5 £150 and £15, so let’s see.

by hudders » Sat Nov 21, 2009 3:33 pm

Darren wrote:Am on the Liverpool / Man City game.

Unders 2.10 / 0-10 5.5 £150 and £15, so let’s see.

How did it go on this? I know there wasn’t an early goal so how much did Unders shift?

Cheers.

by Darren » Sat Nov 21, 2009 6:07 pm

A bit scuppered by injuries, a big couple of delays in the first 10 mins meant I was on a £3.50 loss at the 10 min mark. The advantage of picture though as else would not have known why the prices held up for so long. However there was little action in the first 10 mins so I hung on a little and took out a whopping £3 profit, breaking the rules I know but again if you can get a feel for the game and I was happy to stay in once the insurance had gone.

by Betformulas » Sat Nov 21, 2009 10:02 pm

Another qualifying game today was Burnley – Aston Villa.

Under 2.5 Goals odds Lay 20.4 at 14.30 hrs. Kick Off was at 15:00hrs.

0 – 10 minutes Bet odds 5.4

A goal was scored at 9 minutes.

There was a profit at 0-0 before a goal went in.

Under 2.5 Goals odds were Lay 3.45 at 11 minutes, for PLUS £7.83 profit using bet stakes of £250 and £25 as before.

Lay 3.4 at 14 minutes gave £10.00 profit, and Lay 3.3 at 16 minutes gave £14.55.

This is an improvement on Wednesdays international games that had no qualifiers due to strong favourites and short odds in the Under 2.5 Goals markets.

You can easily simulate these trades for paper trading, showing the profit or loss using my Hedge 3 Bets spreadsheet.

Download it here . . . . http://www.juicestorm.com/betclub/co…ts-Spreadsheet

Also take a look at this video on YouTube that shows different ways of trading with a losing bet and a successful lay in the sheet http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wyqn1XNJOGE

To simulate an Under 2.5 Goals trade with NO goal, input your Under 2.5 Goals odds and stake in cells A20 & B20.

Input a losing bet stake on the 0 – 10 minutes at B21. Don’t input any odds for that.

Input the current odds at B12.

Profit or loss is shown in column C.

To simulate an Under 2.5 Goals trade WITH a goal, delete B21 and insert 0 – 10 bet winnings at D21.

Input the current odds at B12.

Profit or loss is shown in column C.

If live trading, set things up before the Kick Off using 2 sections of the sheet, one section for if no goal is scored and the 2nd section for if a goal is scored.

As you update the current odds at row 12, a range of lay stakes at different odds will show your potential profit or loss for the whole trade across both markets.

Howard.

by Darren » Mon Nov 23, 2009 11:49 am

Thanks Howard, great stuff as always.

I did have success in the Man United / Everton game too, odds on Unders went from 2.04 to 1.82 after 9:50, so locked in just under £3 on that, on £150 / £15 stakes.

by hudders » Mon Nov 23, 2009 10:10 pm

Darren wrote:Thanks Howard, great stuff as always.

I did have success in the Man United / Everton game too, odds on Unders went from 2.04 to 1.82 after 9:50, so locked in just under £3 on that, on £150 / £15 stakes.

Risk V Reward doesn’t seem great thou. Thats pretty decent sized stakes for a £3 profit & thats when things go right. If a goal is scored early I’d guess that the -£ would be more than £3.

by Darren » Tue Nov 24, 2009 3:34 pm

Yeah I know what you are saying, but does give food for thought on how to trade the markets in running, should have some extra announcements on this soon.