Spreadsheet for Red Card Refunds
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Forum Discussion from BetSeventyTwo
by Betformulas » Fri Jan 08, 2010 8:53 pm
A spreadsheet showing the stakes for trading these offers can be downloaded here: Red_Card_Refund . You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view the spreadsheet.
There are 2 spreadsheets accessed via the Tabs at the bottom of your Excel screen.
This is my strategy :-
Bet with the bookie in the bookie’s specified market.
Lay the same selection in the equivalent market on your exchange.
There will be a small loss due to the difference in the odds and commission on the lay side of the trade.
Then in the Sending Off market on our exchange we can either
Lay Red Card = Yes . . . .OR
Bet Red Card = No.
An offer of a refund of your losing stake if a player is sent off has 4 possible outcomes :-
Our bet loses and there is a red Card.
Our bet loses and there is NO Red card.
Our bet wins and there is a red card
Our bet wins and there is NO red card.
I have put this spreadsheet together to trade these offers but I have been unable to cover all 4 outcomes.
Usually there will be liabilities on one of the 4 possible outcomes.
The spreadsheet has 2 Adjustments.
A first adjustment can be used to favour either a win or lose outcome of the hedge of your bookie bet if you have an opinion or you decide to overlay.
The 2nd adjustment can be used to balance your profit or loss of the whole trade across all 4 possible outcomes.
Note that you may need a negative input if you decide to Bet Red Card = No.
Before placing your bet or lay in the Sending Off market, it may be best to try both options using the spreadsheet to see if a bet pays better than a lay or a lay pays better than a bet in the Sending Off market.
Note that I have not yet tested this spreadsheet with my cash.
The spreadsheet has protected cells to prevent overtyping of the calculations.
I have left the calculations visible so that you may get an idea of how the sheet works.
The sheet is not particularly tidy. It is functional rather than pretty.
SportingBet have a Red Card Refund offer on Premiership games this weekend, Jan 9th & 10th 2010.
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