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- Saturday Horse Racing Trends and Free Tips: 1st Oct 2022 - September 30, 2022
- 2022 Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends & Free Tips - September 11, 2022
- Saturday TV Trends and Tips: 17th Sept 22 - September 11, 2022
This Saturday’s Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is a Handicap Chase staged at Newbury racecourse and is always a hotly-contested event. The race is run over a distance of 2m4f and is currently sponsored by BetVictor, who are also supporting the Greatwood Veterans. It was first run in 2004 and since then has been dominated by top UK National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls – who has won the race a staggering nine times – therefore, anything he runs should be respected.
Here at JUICESTORM we look back at recent winners of the race and give you all the key trends to take into the 2022 renewal – this year run on Saturday 5th March – for example, did you know 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or younger?
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Recent Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Winners
2021 – UMBRIGADO (13/2)
2020 – No Race
2019 – SAN BENEDETO (11/1)
2018 – Abandoned
2017 – THOMAS CRAPPER (8/1)
2016 – SAMETEGAL (7/1)
2015 – SOUND INVESTMENT (7/2 fav)
2014 – SHANGANI (3/1 fav)
2013 – PACHA Du POLDER (18/1)
2012 – AERIAL (10/3 fav)
2011 – FINE PARCHMENT (12/1)
2010 – BIG FELLA THANKS (8/1)
2009 – NEW LITTLE BRIC (14/1)
2008 – NATAL (3/1 jfav)
2007 – MADISON du BERLAIS (12/1)
2006 – HORUS (22/1) dead-heat
2006 – CORNISH SET (5/1 fav) dead-heat
2005 – SUPREME PRINCE (7/1)
2004 – ISIO (11/2)
Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Betting Trends
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
14/17 – Won over this trip previously
13/17 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
12/17 – Officially rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/17 – Favourites placed
9/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
9/17 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/17 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/17 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
3/17 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/17 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race the Paul Nicholls yard love to target – winning the pot a staggering 9 times in the last 17 runnings. They have Amour De Nuit and Tamaroc Du Mathan entered. Plenty of key betting trends to note though, including 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or younger, while 16 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight. Taking these two key stats into account the Fergal O’Brien runner – DUBLIN FOUR (e/w) – stands out. This 8 year-old has only 10st 6lbs to carry and despite falling last time out at Ludlow was a nice winner over this course and distance prior to that. In fact, he’s won his last two races at Newbury, so we know the track suits. He’s only 4lbs higher than that last win and connections have given him plenty of time to get over that recent tumble with a 2 ½ month break. That absence is also not a big concern as he came back from 200 days off in November to win here at Newbury. Paddy Brennan rides. Glen Forsa bounced back to winning form at Musselburgh last time and will have his backers, but at 10 falls down on the age trend (15 of the last 17 aged 8 or younger), Senior Citizen (4th last year) and Amoola Gold have all had their supporters in the build-up to the race, while the Venetia Williams yard, who won this in 2014, have a fair hand with the 7 year-old Farinet. But it’s hard to ignore the good record of the Paul Nicholls yard. As mentioned, they run two – Amour De Nuit and TAMAROC DU MATHAN (e/w) – with the last-named of interest with Harry Cobden riding. This 7 year-old ticks a fair few of the main trends and with 11st 6lbs is only just over the key weight stat. He’ll be much fitter for a recent fifth at Sandown, which came off a 3 ½ month break and after a wind operation too. With only six runs over fences (2 wins) you feel there is more to come from this Nicholls chaser, who still has plenty of time on his side.
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