2019 Craven Stakes Betting Trends

Newmarket horse racing trends and tips

The Craven Stakes is the feature contest on the three-day Newmarket April Meeting and is a Group Three race run over 1 mile.

Being for 3 year-old colts and geldings the race is often seen as an early season trial for the 2,000 Guineas, run the following month – the last horse to win both races was Haafhd in 2004, while the 2019 hero – Masar – went onto win that season’s Epsom Derby!

Here at JuiceStorm we look back at recent winners and give you the key stats ahead of the 2019 renewal – this year staged on Wednesday 17th April 2019.

Recent Craven Stakes Winners

2018 – MASAR (7/2)
2017 – EMINENT (8/1)
2016 – STORMY ANTARCTIC (9/2)
2015 – KOOL COMPANY (14/1)
2014 – TOORMORE (Evs fav)
2013 – TORONADO (8/11 fav)
2012 –TRUMPET MAJOR (9/2)
2011 – NATIVE KHAN (8/11 fav)
2010 – ELUSIVE PIMPERNEL (10/11 fav)
2009 – DELEGATOR (4/6 fav)
2008 – TWICE OVER (9/4)
2007 – ADAGIO (5/4 fav)
2006 – KILLYBEGS (9/2)
2005 – DEMOCRATIC DEFICIT (12/1)
2004 – HAAFHD (10/3)
2003 – HURRICANE ALAN (9/1)

Key Craven Stakes Betting Trends

15/16 – Having their first run of the season
14/16 – Rated 110 or higher
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had won over 7f before
11/16 – Yet to win over a mile
11/16 – Had won no more than twice before
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (3 won)
7/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (including last 4 of last 7 runnings)
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
9 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard have by-far the best recent record in this race with four wins from the last seven renewals. They run WATAN here and with Ryan Moore riding then of those at slightly longer prices he can’t be ignored. This will be his first try over a mile, but has won well before over 7f to suggest it’s worth a crack. Trainer Martyn Meade won this in 2017 and he tries again with Confiding, while past course winner – Skardu – from the William Haggas yard looks as though he’s got more to offer. He’s got come fancy entries and won well over 7f here last season. Frankie rides the unbeaten Set Piece for trainer Hugo Palmer, but does have a bit to find on the ratings, but Prince Eiji does have some past form to think he can go well too. Godolphin’ Royal Marine sets the standard based on the ratings (113) and would be a big player on his UAE 2000 Guineas trial fourth in January and his Group One win in France last October. However, the boys in blue of Godolphin also have the well-touted ZAKOUSKI in the race and being as low as 8/1 for the 2,000 Guineas then he’s clearly a horse held in high regard and is the main pick here. He won well on debut at Kempton on the AW over 7f back in November, but has been well-supported in the build-up to this to suggest he’s ready to rumble. Of the rest, the Gay Kelleway yard think a lot of their GLOBAL SPECTRUM (e/w) who heads here 3-from-3. He’s certainly going the right way and won a Group Two in Doh last time out in good fashion. This will be tougher, despite being a Group Three, but it would not be a shock to see him run well at a nice price.

 

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