Saturday TV Horse Racing Trends & Tips: 27th Nov 2021

Newbury and Newcastle Horse Racing Tips

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase – plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, here at JUICESTORM, we’ve got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

Did you know? 17 of the last 19 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger

 Let’s get cracking!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y ITV3

15/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
9/15 – Raced at Wincanton (4), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
9/15 – Officially rated between 126-130
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
6/15 – French bred
5/15 – Placed favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV3

5 previous runnings
All of the last 5 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
4 of the last 5 winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11st 3lbs or more in weight
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 6 years-old
2 of the last 5 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainers Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 5 years

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV3

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/15 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
12/15 – Irish, French or German bred
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury before
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/15 – Won last time out
9 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Floressa (10/1) won the race in 2020

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y ITV3

17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
16/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
13/19 – Had a previous run that season
12/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/19 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1
11 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (30 runnings) there have been 14 winners (47%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35- Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV3

17/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/19 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
10/19 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/19 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/19 – Placed in their last race
10/19 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Zanza (5/2) won the race in 2020
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.30 – Betfair Daily Rewards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m7 1/2f ITV3

10/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/10 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/10 – Carried 10st 8lbs or more
8/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Winning favourites
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Had run at the track before
3/10 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

2.05 – BetFair Exchange Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV3

16/17 – Didn’t win their last race
15/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
14/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
12/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/17 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Aged 8 years-old
4/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

3.15 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

19/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
17/19 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
17/19 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
16/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
16/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/19 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 13)
4/19 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

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