Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 29th May 2021

Free horse racing tips and trends

Another busy Saturday of horse racing ahead with the LIVE ITV action this week coming from Chester, Beverley and Haydock. As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – use these to help narrow down the field and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.40 – tote+ Pays You More At tote.co.uk Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 7 ½ f ITV

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
5/5 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
5/5 – Won over at least 7 1/2f before
5/5 – Rated between 90-99
5/5 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
4/5 – Aged 5 or older
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Ran at York (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
4/5 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
3/5 – Won 6+ times
3/5 – Placed favourites
3/5 – Had won at the track before
3/5 – Aged 7 or 8
3/5 – Drawn between stalls 5-7 (inc)
1/5 – Winning favourite
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 2020 Wokingham Stakes winner – Hey Jonesy – has struggled since taking that Royal Ascot race, but is now only a pound higher so can’t be ruled out. It’s a race that all of the last 5 winners have been drawn 7 or lower though, so with that in mind EJTILAAB, ALEXANDER JAMES, HEY JONSEY, BOARDMAN, TADLEEL, MISSION BOY and ANOTHER BATT are the ones I’m going to focus on. With all 5 recent winners also carrying 9-1 or less in weight, then of those seven mentioned, Tadleel, Ejtilaab, Alexander James and Boardman get a thumbs up. But it’s BOARDMAN and EJTILAAB that I’m going to pin my hopes on. The former is in great order after wins at Haydock and York, while despite being up another 10lbs here has been winning with plenty in-hand and looks worth sticking with from a good draw in 4.  Ejtilaab, was a fair fifth here over this course and distance at their May Meeting but that came from draw 10 so it wasn’t a bad effort. He’s a pound lower this time and has a much better stall in 1 this time. Richard Kingscote, who rides Chester well, remains in the saddle. Of the rest, Azano and Via Serendipity are others to note, while Another Batt and Gabrial The Wire are the only two proven CD winners in the field so must be respected too.

 


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.45 – Betway Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 6f ITV

Only three previous runnings
3/3 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
3/3 – Drawn in double-figures
3/3 – Carried between 8-10 and 9-4 in weight
3/3 – Drawn between stalls 10-16 (inc)
2/3 – Aged 4 years-old
2/3 – Trained by David O’Meara
0/3 – Winning favourites
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 28% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Michael Dods has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 4-from-83 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is just 1-from-19 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tricky well-contested handicap here and we’ve only three recent runnings to go on. All three winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old though and drawn in double figures so there might be something in that – Troubador and Concierge are the only two that fit the bill on those fronts. The Michael Dods yard have a decent 24% record with their 4+ year-olds too – they run the already mentioned Troubador and also Royal Context. With poor strike-rates in this age bracket the Varian and Fahey runners – Musicality, Show Me Show Me and Brian The Snail are overlooked, but it is worth mentioned Air Raid and Hyperfocus as two proven CD winners in the line-up. However, there is also another CD winner in the field – COLD STARE (e/w) – and I think this one can go well at a nice price, having won this race in 2019 too. Trained by the David O’Meara yard that won this race the last two times it’s been staged and gets in here off a 5lb lower mark. Oisin Murphy catches the eye in the saddle too and if the ground remains on the soft side that won’t be an issue. The in-form Capote’s Dream will be popular, as will Bielsa and Punchbowl Flyer, but the other pick is the Frankie-ridden HELVEZIA (e/w). This 4 year-old hails from the Ralph Beckett yard, that have a cracking 28% record with their 4+ year-olds here at the track and having run well in Listed company last time out will find this slight drop back in grade easier.

 

2.20 – Betway Achilles Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV

12/12 – Returned 14/1 or shorter
11/12 – Aged 5 or older
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won over 5f before
9/12 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
9/12 – Had run at the course before
9/12 – Had raced in the last 10 weeks
9/12 – Won between 6-8 times before
9/12 – Had finished in the top 5 last time out
8/12 – Winning distance 1 length or less
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

Note: The 2020 running was staged at Doncaster

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tough race to unravel, but with 11 of the last 12 winners aged 5 or older so this can help us rule out some – Ishvara, Glamorous Anna, King’s Lynn and Dubai Station, who are all 4 year-olds. Tarboosh is the top-rated in the field and commands respect – he should be a lot sharper for a recent return run at Musselburgh too. El Astronaute is another that can go well having beaten King’s Lynn at Chester in good fashion last time out, while Moss Gill will be more at home back into Listed company having run at G1 level last time – he sports the first-time cheekpieces here too and should not be far away. But the main call is to side with the Charles Hills-trained MOTAGALLY. This 5 year-old has a fair draw in 7 and is only rated 5lbs lower than Tarboosh but gets a handy 3lbs too. At 5 year-olds he should have more to come and the return to 5f looks a plus, having not quite seen out 6f last time at Kempton. He’s gone well fresh too, so the 227-day break isn’t too much of a worry and William Buick has been booked to ride. Of the rest, a saver on the Robert Cowell runner – ALJADY (e/w) – is advised too. This 6 year-old ran well to be fifth at HQ in a better race (G3) last time, but should also be more at home on this softer ground. He’s run well at the track before (course winner) and after two runs this season should be ready to hit boiling point soon.

 

2.55 – Betway Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m3f ITV

17/18 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Rated 92 or higher
14/18 – Placed favourites
14/18 – Aged 4 years-old
13/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
6/18 – Had run at Haydock before
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Roger Varian has a fair record in this race – with wins in 2011 and 2012 – so his Cabaletta is certainly one for the shortlist. This 4 year-old wears the first-time blinkers too and should be more at home over this longer trip (1m4f) having looked to get a bit outpaced over 1m2f last time – she’s the only proven distance winner in the field too and has also run well over further which will help in conditions. La Lune took a big step forward to win a Listed race at Nottingham last time out over 1m2f, but this is a rise in grade again and has it to prove over this longer trip. Wait For The Lord and Salsada have shown a good level of form too, but both have a bit to find on these level terms. The main danger to the selection can come from the David Simcock runner – Oriental Mystique. The yard won this race in 2013, while this horse is the top-rated in the field too. However, I just feel on this softer ground she’s got a bit to prove over this 1m4f trip – she’s tried it three times now and been beaten each time.

 

3.30 – Betway John Of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Rated 107 or higher
16/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/17 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
11/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/17 – Favourites placed
5/17 – Had run at the track before
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Aged 9 years-old
Safe Voyage (5/4 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 2019 winner if this race – SAFE VOYAGE – has been running in much better races than this of late so the drop back in grade can hopefully see him get back to winning ways. Yes, it won’t be easy having to give 5lbs away to the rest, but he’s the top-rated in the field at 116. He’ll be fitter for a recent run in the G1 Lockinge and the drop back to 7f is in his favour too. He’s the only CD winner in the field and has a decent draw in 3. Of the rest, the William Haggas runner – With Thanks – is an improving sort over this 7f trip and from her five runs is yet to finish out of the first two (3 wins). She returns from a break, but is still only 4 years-old and can give the selection most to think about. River Nymph returned to winning ways in a handicap last time and can’t be ruled out, while Toro Strike was impressive at Thirsk last time out and shouldn’t be far away. The other pick though is GLORIOUS JOURNEY, who is weighted to be in the mix. He’s another that has been running in better races than this and acts on all ground. With 12 top three finishes from his 22 starts, he’s a horse that gives his running more often than not – William Buick rides.

 

Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.00 – Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

13/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 5f before
12/15 – Had won just once before
11/15 – Irish bred
11/15 – Had raced in the last 2 weeks
11/15 – Had raced between 1-2 times before
9/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Placed favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/15 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/15 – Raced at York last out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/15– Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/2
The last 10 winners drawn 9 or lower
8 or the last 10 winners were foaled in Feb or March
8 of last 11 winners have been drawn in stalls 6-9 (inc)
The Mark Johnston yard have a 38 % record with their 2 year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The last 10 winners have been drawn 9 or lower, so that’s not good news for Hester Prynne or CD winner Lady Ayresome, who are both drawn high. In fact, 8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6-9 (inc), so if this is to be repeated – RHINOPLASTY, KODIAS SANGARIUS, JAZZY PRINCESS and TIARE tick the box. The betting will be a good guide as to the unraced runners in the field but with a 38% record with his 2 year-olds at the track a chance is taken on the Mark Johnston runner – JILLY COOPER. This juvenile has a nice draw in 2 and seeing she’s running here on debut suggests the yard think she’s up to the task. They are a stable with many 2 year-olds so will have a fair benchmark as to her ability. Of the rest, those with experience – Kyber Crystal, May Blossom and Lucy Lulu have to be respected, but the Hannon yard won this in 2016 so their KODIAS SANGARIUS might be worth an interest too. Yes, she flopped on debut at Nottingham after being slowly away, but she wasn’t given a hard time after that (pulled up). However, she’s clearly thought of as better than that and it’s interesting they are pitching her in here, rather than taking in an easier race to get her confidence back. She’s had a month to get over that last run and you feel the Hannon yard would have done plenty with her at home since.

 

3.10 – bet365 Continental Two Year Old Trophy Conditions Stakes (Plus 10 Race) (Colts & Geldings Cl2 (2yo) 5f ITV

11/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Feb, March or April bred
11/11 – Drawn in 6 or lower
9/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Won over 5f before
8/11 – Won at least once before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Had raced twice or more
6/11 – Irish bred
6/11 – Won last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Drawn in stall 1
3/11 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
The Mark Johnston yard have a 38 % record with their 2 year-olds at the track
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Tipperary Sunset beat Ryan’s Party into second at Hamilton on their debut runs earlier this month, so with just a length between the two there shouldn’t be a lot between them here. The betting will be a good guide toward the unraced Richard Fahey runner – Straits Of Moyle, but the yard won this race when it was last run in 2019 so that’s a good sign. Mercurial won at Chester last time and has to be considered too with that experience, but the Mark Johnston yard have a cracking 38% record with their 2 year-olds at the track, so their pair THE GATEKEEPER and ROBJON get the verdict. Both will enjoy the return to 5f after not quite seeing out 6f last time out and even though will both be hoping the ground dries out a bit, their track experience will be a huge plus in a race like this and it’s hard to ignore the good record of the yard with their juveniles at this venue.

 

3.45 – bet365 Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2f ITV

One previous
Trainer Mark Johnston won this race in 2019
Trainer Mick Easterby is just 3-from-69 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Sean Davis has a 40% record riding 4+ yar-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It’s hard to ignore the chance here of the Mark Johnston runner – SIBAAQ – who was a tidy winner last time out at the track. He’s up just 4lbs for that, which looks fair, and even though this is a slight rise in grade and he’s likely to get much softer ground this time, at just 3 year-olds he looks more progressive than the rest. That last win also came off his first run back since being gelded, which was another good sign. Queen’s Sargent is the only other CD winner in the field and can go well too, while Give It Some Teddy and Broken Spear are others to note. But the danger to the pick can come from the 8 year-old GALLIPOLI (e/w), with Sean Davis riding. The jockey has a decent 40% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track, while his run last time at Ayr was an improved effort (2nd) to suggest a return to form could be around the corner for this Richard Fahey-trained runner.

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