The JuiceStorm mail bag every week contains a huge number of queries. This month already I’ve had three emails in a similar vein. All to do with having an “edge”. They hate me sharing simple strategies, tactics and ideas that can can help people become professional Betfair, Betdaq or Matchbook traders.
Why do you do this John? I may lose my edge.
Many people feel that discussing strategies with others is bad. But publishing strategies, tactics and ideas on one of the widest read, longest established Betfair trading websites some say is even worse. Here’s the thing. I don’t give a damn.
They genuinely believe that by sharing ideas and strategies will cause those ideas to lose their value. Their view is that any strategy that has a positive edge will see that edge lost as money from other traders – you -with the same idea will move the price to where there is no edge.
Frankly, there are far bigger players than me that have made a business out of sharing value. Our friends at Trademate Sports is a good example. Trademate calculates the true odds of the outcome of a sporting event and provides you with all the tools necessary to identify profitable opportunities. Or, if you have a spare million or two then Tony Bloom’s Starlizard might help spot value too.
My view is simple. Trading today on Betfair has many opportunities to turn a profit that has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the event – who will win or lose. Back in the day, I would only trade price movement with no interest in who is competing or who will win the event.
This is how EVERYONE can still find an edge in trading.
A fundamental trader – those that try to determine which horse is going to win a race – now has a place in trading on Betfair today. It could be a blended approach to fundamentals and technicals perhaps?
Fundamental traders consider speed, form and other such ratings. They are making the market more efficient. But many other areas will still be less efficient and will allow you to gain an edge. Inefficiencies exist at every bookmaker every day. But to make money from them you may need help.
The day may also come when algorithmic trading could erode any edge. This assumes, of course, that the same mathematical principles will make similar discoveries. Your edge may come from making the discovery before anyone else or you may be able to make discoveries where nobody else is looking. I favour the latter.
Technical trading when trading horse races is an area where everyone can participate and learn. Traditional gamblers are only looking at a horse’s form. Think. Do something different. And you may find your edge on Betfair.