York Ebor Festival Trends & Tips: Sat 26th August 2017

York Ebor Racing Tips and Trends

The York Ebor Festival concludes on Saturday 26th August 2017, as the four-day meeting heads into it’s final day.

Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Three Strensall Stakes and the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes, but the final day is always spearheaded by the Ebor Handicap – Europe’s most valuable handicap – did you know that ALL of the last 15 Ebor Handicap winners carried 9-4 or less in weight, while 12 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure stall?

As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

DAY FOUR – Saturday 26th August 2017

 

1.55 – Betfred Mobile Strensall Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m208y ITV

14/14 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/14 – Had won at least twice in the their career
13/14 – Had between 2 and 4 runs already that season
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over a mile before
9/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
9/14 – Favourites to finish in the top three
8/14 – Placed horses from stall 2
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Won by Godolphin
7/14 – Previous Group race winners
6/14 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
4/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/14 – Had won at York before
Scottish (5/1) won the race in 2016
Note: The 2009 running was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Sovereign Debut is the highest-rated in the field on 116 so commands plenty of respect, but also has to give weight away to all the others being a Group Two winner in the past. Yes, this drop in grade will help and the last time he ran at this level he won, but you feel he’s already had a hard season – winning three times – so something a bit fresher might just have the legs on him. Master Of The World won well at Goodwood two starts ago and wasn’t disgraced last time out at Salisbury in the Sovereign Stakes so enters the mix too. He’s a past course winner but the big worry for him would be the trip – he’s yet to win over this far. Make Time ran well to be second to the improving Beat The Bank last time at Goodwood and with just 8-12 to carry gets weight from most of the others – he looks interesting, while the 2015 winner of this race – Mondialiste – is another that is sure to be popular. He’s the only proven course and distance winner in the field and although he’s been hard to win with of late a recent second at York was a sign that he could be returning to winning form. But at 7 years-old he’s got that trend against him so the Sir Michael Stoute-trained 4 year-old MUSTASHRY gets the nod. This horse won a valuable handicap at Chelmsford last time out, but came from off the pace that day to do it well and based on that run there looked to be more in the locker. The drying ground is a plus and connections clearly feel he’s up to this step up in grade – Jim Crowley in the saddle is also an added bonus.

 

2.25 – Betfred Melrose Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

12/14 – Not raced at York before
12/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/14 – Won carrying 9-0 or less
11/14 – Had won over 1m4f or further
10/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
10/14 – Had a top 5 finish last time out
9/14 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
7/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
6/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/14 – Won their previous race
3/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Wall Of Fire (16/1) won the race in 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: 20 runners head to post here, but with 11 of the last 14 winners carrying 9-0 or less, plus 10 of the last 14 having finished in the top 5 last time out then these two key trends can help us narrow down the runners. 9 of the last 14 winners also came from stalls 8 or lower, while don’t be too worried if your fancy hasn’t raced at York before, as 12 of the last 14 winners hadn’t either. Taking all those stats into account the William Haggas-trained THE GRAND VISIR (E/W) catches the eye. This 3 year-old was a good winner last time out at Newmarket and a 6lb rise for that doesn’t look too harsh. Yes, this is a step up to 1m6f (from 1m4f) but he ran last time as if this trip would suit and draw 3 and 8-11 in weight look ideal too. Of the rest, Shymkent, ran well in a competitive handicap at Goodwood last time (4th) and gets in here off the same mark, while Winston C, Bin Battuta and Sofia’s Rock are others to note – most notably the first-named of that trio who was a decent third last time out at Goodwood. He’s only 2lbs higher here but plugged on well that day to suggest this extra yardage is worth a crack, while the promising David Egan continues to take off a handy 5lbs from the saddle.

3.00 – Al Basti Equiworld Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

14/14 – Won just 1-2 times before
14/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/14 – Won just once before
9/14 – Foaled in March or later
9/14 – Had won over 6f before
9/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won by a March foal
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
3/14 – Trained by William Haggas
2/14 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
2/14 – Winning favourites
Blue Point (11/8 fav) won the race in 2016

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A chance to see some of the stars of the future here. Okay, probably not the best renewal but we’ve still some promising sorts on show. The Mark Johnston-trained Cardsharp is the highest-rated in the line-up but being a Group Two winner already has to give weight away all-round. He wasn’t disgraced when third in the Richmond Stakes last time out, despite being sent off favourite, as the softer ground probably wasn’t ideal. A return to a better surface will help and with seven career runs already heads into the race as one of the most experienced – he should not be far away. However, the horse that was second that day in the Richmond Stakes – NEBO – looks set to go well again. This Charles Hills-trained juvenile has only had four career starts so there should be more to come, while we know he stays a bit further than this 6f trip after running the classy Gustav Klimt to a head over 7f the time before in the Group Two Superlative Stakes at HQ. He seems to act on most ground and Jim Crowley – who has ridden him the last three times – continues in the saddle. Of the rest, we can expect better from the William Haggas-trained Headway, who was second in the Coventry Stakes earlier this season, but being he was 6th of 7 in the Richmond Stakes last time out does have a bit to find with the likes of Cardsharp and Nebo based on that effort. 

 

3.45 – Betfred Ebor (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

15/15 – Carried 9-4 or less
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Won from a double-figure stall
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Winning Distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Had run at York before
5/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/15 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
1/15 – Winning favourites
Heartbreak City (15/2) won the race in 2016
Just one winning favourite since 1999
Luca Cumani has won the race in 1999, 2004 & 2007
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 22/1

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tough running of this competitive contest – which is the richest handicap in Europe. Several key trends to note going into the race though as ALL of the last 15 winners carried 9-4 or less in weight, while 11 of the last 15 were aged 4 or 5 years-old and carried 9-1 or less in weight. Flymetothestars, who was last seen running a cracker to be third in the Northumberland Plate, fits most of the key trends and with just 9-4 to carry this 4 year-old has been popular in the betting all week. However, this Sir Mark Prescott-trained runner doesn’t look much value in a race of this nature and although I think he’ll run well others are preferred. Magic Circle won well at the meeting on Wednesday and gets into the race with a 4lb penalty – if this hasn’t come too soon then is one for the shortlist too. As we all know anything the Willie Mullins yard send over to run in these staying races should be respected and this year they pin their hopes on Ivan Grozny. This 7 year-old was last seen being brought down in the Galway Hurdle at an early stage, but before that was a close third at Tipperary. Jim Crowley has been booked to ride and off a mark of 105 looks well-treated now back on the flat. Star Storm and Wild Hacked are others to note, but the one that stands out based on the trends is DUBKA (E/W). The Sir Michael Stoute-trained 4 year-old returned to form with a decent second last time out at Goodwood and gets in here off the same mark. That was in Group class so this drop back into a handicap will make life easier and the talented Josie Gordon has been booked to ride. With 9-4 to carry and being a 4 year-old then he ticks these key trends, while the Stoute team clearly know what’s required in a race of this nature, having won the prize three times in the past.

 

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