York Ebor Festival Trends & Tips: Fri 25th August 2017
York Ebor horse racing tips and trends
The York Ebor Festival continues on Friday 25th August 2017, as the four-day meeting heads into it’s third day.
Four more LIVE ITV races to take in, including the Group Two Lonsdale Cup and the Group Three Sky Bet City Of York Stakes, but day three is all about the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes as we get a chance to see some of the best sprinters on the planet doing battle again – did you know 13 of the last 15 Nunthorpe winners came from stall 11 or lower, plus finished in the top 5 last time out?
As always, we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races – use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners.
DAY THREE – Friday 25th August 2017
1.55 – Sky Bet First Race Special Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV
13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
13/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before (6 over 1m4f)
12/14 – Had 3 or more runs already that season
12/14 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
12/14 – Had won at least twice on the flat before
10/14 – Carried 9-5 or less in weight
10/14 – Won from stall 8 or higher
10/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
8/14 – Ran at either Goodwood (4) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/14 – Had run at York before
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (2)
3/14 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
Barsanti (5/1 jfav) won the race in 2016
Note: The 2015 running was a dead-heat
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tricky contest to get us going on day three of the York Ebor Festival. The big news ahead of the race is that the well-fancied Game Starter is now a non-runner for Godolphin, but it’s still a very competitive-looking betting heat. But the boys in blue also still have a good chance with Red Galileo, who has shot to the forefront of the market now. This 6 year-old has run well at Ascot the last twice and we know he stays further so that will be a plus down the long York straight, but at 6 years-old he does fall down on the key trend that has seen 10 of the last 14 winners aged 3 or 4. 10 of the last 14 winners also carried 9-5 or less in weight and came from stalls 8 or higher, while 12 of the last 14 had raced 3 or more times that term. Several catch the eye, including recent winners Amazing Red and Erik The Red, but with trainers Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute both having fair records in this race then their runners – LONDINIUM (e/w) and FIDAAWY (e/w) – stand out. Londinium was a decent winner at Glorious Goodwood earlier this month and followed that up with a fair second at the same meeting just days later. A three week break would have done him good and with just 8-5 to carry here will be getting weight off most of the others. The Stoute-trained Fidaawy has been running in some competitive handicaps of late and despite running a bit below-par hasn’t been totally disgraced. The better ground and the 1m4f trip will suit more here and with just 10 career starts and only three runs this term there could be more to come from this 4 year-old – Jim Crowley rides.
2.25 –Lonsdale Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m88y ITV
12/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/13 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
10/13 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
10/13 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/13 – Favourites placed
9/13 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/13 – Won a Listed or better class race before
9/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Had run at York before (6 won)
7/13 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
5/13 – Favourites to win
3/13 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
4 of the last 9 winners were Irish bred
Quest For More (9/2) won the race in 2016
Note: The 2008 renewal was run at Newbury
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A decent-looking renewal of another of the long-distance highlights of the season. Higher Power, Sheikhzayedroad and St Michel are the only three proven distance winners in the line-up so command respect based on that alone. The Willie Mullins camp took this 2015 though and in Thomas Hobson look to have another decent chance. This 7 year-old won the Ascot Stakes over further (2m4f) so we know the trip will be fine, while he followed that up with a fine second in the Queen Alexandra Stakes just 4 days later. He’s had a nice 2 month break to get over those quick races and top jockey Jim Crowley has been booked to ride. Dal Harraild won well here at the track back in May and wasn’t disgraced last time to be 4 lengths 6th of 12 in the Hardwicke Stakes. The big question surrounding his chance is the trip as this is by-far the furthest he’s gone, but he certainly wasn’t stopping over 1m6f two outings ago and so you can see why connections are trying him over this 2 miles. ST MICHEL (e/w) has done nothing wrong in his last two races, including last time out over in America when a close second in the Belmont Gold Cup, and has only finished out of the first three once in his last 11 outings – the Prescott team are also operating at a decent 41% strike-rate at present so we know their horses are in fine fettle. The Queen’s Dartmouth is another that punters are sure to latch onto with Ryan Moore riding. This 5 year-old has some high-class form in the book already and is closely-matched with Dal Harraild after running fourth in the Hardwicke last time out. This is a step-up in trip though so despite looking like getting the extra yardage it’s still an unknown so I’d rather side with the proven SHEIKHZAYEDROAD (e/w). This David Simcock-trained 8 year-old hasn’t hit the heights of past seasons yet this term, but has been running in some hot Group One races. This drop back in class will be a plus and since running outside the top level his form reads a fair 3-1-1-3-3. We know the trip will be fine and he’s also got winning form here at the track.
3.00 – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV
13/14 – Failed to win last time out
13/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Drawn in stalls 4 to 8 (inc)
12/14 – Priced 7/1 or shorter
11/14 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
10/14 – Never run at York before
10/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/14 – Had 4 or more runs that season
8/14 – Aged 4 years-old
6/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/14 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/14 – Won by Andrew Balding
2/14 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
1/14 – Placed horses from stall 1
Nemoralia (15/8 fav) won the race in 2016
JUICESTORM VERDICT: So Beloved has run well in this race in the past (2nd 12 months ago) so has to be respected and heads here off the back of a fair fifth last time out at Goodwood. Didn’t get the clearest of runs that day too so with a bit more luck in-running has to be one for the short-list. However, with 13 of the last 14 winners aged 5 or younger this is a good place to start with the trends – of the 20 runners this actually knocks out 7 of the runners – including the 7 year-old, and already mentioned So Beloved, plus another of the more-fancied runners in Suedois. 12 of the last 14 winners also came from stalls 4-8 (inclusive) so with this in-mind the five that tick that key stat are Mubtasim, Escobar, So Beloved, Jungle Cat and Talaayeb. The John Gosden-trained Daban is sure to be popular with Frankie riding too. This 3 year-old is dropped in grade and was a fair 6th in the Jersey Stakes last time out at Royal Ascot. She’s been kept fresh for this with 2 months off and the form of her third in the 1,000 Guineas to the classy Winter back in May would make her hard to beat. Draw 12 doesn’t look ideal though and despite having run well fresh in the past it’s worth noting that 10 of the last 14 winners had raced four or more times that season. So, despite having the key age trend against them both SO BELOVED (e/w) and Suedois look big players, especially the first-named being that he’s a proven course and distance winner here too and should also find this easier than when running a close fifth in the Group Two Lennox Stakes last time out. Godolphin’s Jungle Cat is another of interest and if you can draw a line under it’s last run (is better than that) then would be a big player on earlier form this season, but the William Haggas-trained MUBTASIM (e/w) also looks interesting. This 3 year-old wasn’t beaten far in the Minstrel Stakes in Ireland last time out, but before that was a decent third in the Jersey Stakes. That form links him in with Daban, who was behind him that day at Ascot and being that he’s over double the price of the Gosden runner then he certainly looks the better value.
3.35 – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 5f ITV
13/15 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Came from stall 11 or lower
12/15 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
11/15 – Favourites to finish in the top 4
11/15 – Had run at the course before
10/15 – Were previous Group race winners
9/15 – Winning distance less than a length
8/15 – Had 5 or more runs already that season
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 5 of last 7)
5/15 – Placed horses from stall 11
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/15 – Placed horses from stall 1 (3rd in 2003 & 2012)
Mecca’s Angel (9/2) won the race in 2016
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Run over 5f we get a chance to see a potential classic head-to-head here for this high-class Group One Sprint as speedsters Lady Aurelia and Battash lock horns.
It’s a fascinating match-up with US speedball Lady Aurelia last seen running away with the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and she’s been kept over here with this race in-mind.
Battash – however – has been the sprinting improver of the season, with his most-recent Goodwood victory in the King George Stakes a very taking performance.
Both these 3 year-olds will get weight from the older horses, but being a filly LADY AURELIA gets a further 3lbs off her main rival and that could be the difference.
This Wesley Ward-trained speedster was extremely impressive last time at Ascot and with a few months off to freshen-up there should be more to come. Her only defeat from 6 starts came over 6f at Newmarket in the Cheveley Park last season, but since reverting to shorter trips she’s got back to winning ways. The ground has dried out just in time for her and despite the improving Battash looking a real threat and a huge improver this season I’ll be sticking with the filly and Frankie Dettori taking this one.
Of the rest, the consistent Marsha should not be far away as usual, but has a bit of ground to make up on Battaash, who finished just over 3 lengths in front of this Sir Mark Prescott-trained horse last time at Goodwood. Godolphin’s Profitable is another of the outsiders to consider but with the main two having his measure a few times already this season he might have to settle for a place again, while the speedy front-runner Take Cover has run well in this race a few times in the past and can be expected to make a bold bid from the front again – of those at a bigger price he looks the best value.