Saturday TV Horse Racing Trends & Tips: 26th Oct 2019

Free horse racing tips and key trends

Loads to look forward to this Saturday with something for everyone as the ITV cameras are at Doncaster & Newbury for some decent flat action, plus they are also over the jumps for the first time this season at Cheltenham.

As always here at JUICESTORM we got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus once the entries are out our free tips………let’s get cracking!

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

**Abandoned**


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tight-looking contest based on the ratings. We’ve seen ALL of the last 12 winners finishing placed last time out, so this is good news for all bar Flaming Princess and Bill Neigh. In fact, 10 of the last 12 winners also won last time out so Hong Kong, Brad The Brief, Aberama Gold and Art Power tick this trend. Being drawn in stall 6 or lower and also foaled in February or later are other positive trends, while having raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time are other things to note. With all that in mind the Tim Easterby-trained ART POWER ticks a lot of boxes. He was an easy 5 length winner at York on soft ground last time out over 5f, but that was only his second career run and should have more to offer over this extra furlong. He’s proven soft ground too and the yard are in reasonable form at the moment too. Of the rest, Aberama Gold is the top-rated in the field but being a proven Listed winner already has to give weight away to the others. Brad The Brief has won two of his three starts but the softer ground here is an unknown. So, the danger can come from the Aidan O’Brien runner – Hong Kong. This colt was a soft ground winner at Naas last time out over this trip and despite having a US pedigree it was good to see him able to win with cut in the ground. The blinkers clearly did the trick last time and remain on.

 

3.25 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

15/17 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
15/17 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Foaled in February or later
14/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
14/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
12/17 – Winning favourites
12/17 – Had raced at least twice previously
11/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/17 – Had won over a mile in the past
10/17 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/17 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/17 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
3/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
3/17 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
1/17 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Well, with five of the six entries, then trainer Aidan O’Brien looks to have a great chance of making it win number 10 in this Group One. He’s shown in the past that you can’t rule out any of his runners in these top races and has won many a Group One with his ‘so-called’ second strings. The fly in the ointment with regards to the O’Brien runners is the Andrew Balding-trained Kameko, and he’s not without a chance. Most neutrals will probably be cheering this one on as it’s a shame a G1 with over £100k in prize money has only attracted runners from two yards! Kameko was a good second in the G2 Royal Lodge last time out over a mile – form that would see him go well here. But he’s yet to race on ground this soft so that would be the unknown and the potential concern. Of the O’Brien runners recent winners Innisfree and Louisiana can’t be ruled out, especially as they should have more to come, but it’s hard to get away from MOGUL, who looks their clear first-string. This Galileo colt looks another to come out of the yard that could go to the very top. He’s also won twice over a mile and is bred to get further so next season the Guineas and Derby will be the obvious targets if taking this. Softer ground should be fine and the manner of his last two wins suggests he’s improving fast. Iberia and Royal County Down make up the rest of the O’Brien runners.

 

4.00 – Doncaster Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 6 year-old, TARBOOSH won this race 12 months ago and there is every reason to think he can go well again. He’s only a pound higher for his length success last year and also heads here in tip-top form after an easy win at Musselburgh in a Conditions race. He loves soft ground too and jockey Kevin Stott has built-up a good partnership with him. Draw 9 should just about be okay too as that will hopefully give him some options and tag over to the higher-drawn horses – 9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall. Of the rest, Came From The Dark has been popular in the betting all week and can go well, while Copper Knight (4th), Foolaad (6th) and Holmeswood (8th) are horses that went well in this race 12 months ago too. However, with 14 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger then we’ll also be having a few of these on side – Copper Knight, Good Effort, Makanah, Princess Des Sables, Came From The Dark, Saaheq, Four Wheel Drive, Holmeswood, Savalas, Thegreatestshowman, Tawny Port and Fairy Stories fit the bill here. Of that bunch, the Michael Appleby runner SAAHEQ (e/w) catches the eye too. He was a smooth winner on the fibresand at Southwell last time out and is only 4lbs higher for this return to the turf. However, connections are putting up 7lb claimer Angus Villiers so that offsets most of the rise. He’s a CD winner here at the track too and has run well on soft ground too. CD winners, Orvar and Foolaad are others to consider.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

**Abandoned**

 

2.20 – Victoria Club Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: It’s great to see both last year’s dead-heat winners of this race trying to land the prize again. Mornado and Young Rascal are the horses in question that couldn’t be separated 12 months ago. The are closely-matched on the ratings too, but Young Rascal does look to have a bit to prove after a few poor runs since. He’s since been gelded so that might have done the trick and will be a lot fresher than lost after most of the summer off. However, MORANDO was a very easy winner over this trip at Ascot last time out so comes here at the more reliable of the past winners of this race. He’s fine on soft ground too and his form in this grade recently reads very well – 1-1-2-1! Of the rest, Royal Line, King’s Advice and Manuela De Vega are certainly no back numbers on their best form and can’t be discounted but I’m happy to stick with the in-form Morando to follow-up his win in the race from 12 months ago.


2.50 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several big yards on show here, including the Ralph Beckett team, that are ending the season in great form. They run the once-raced KINROSS here, who went into many a notebook on debut when bolting-up at HQ. He was slowly away that day but still won by an easy 8 lengths. Yes, it’s hard to know what he beat, and this is a big rise in grade but the horse could not have been more impressive so looks worth sticking with, and also have most of the main stats in his favour. Looking at the others, the O’Brien yard run Year Of The Tiger, and being rated 108 then he can go close. But with 6 career runs now (just 1 win) is looking a bit unexposed. The yard also run New World Tapestry and this one might just have more to come with only three runs. He was a good winner last time out at Newmarket over this trip and that should have boosted his confidence. Surf Dancer, Boccaccio and Kenzai Warrior are others that can make their presence felt.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)


2.00 – ‘Matchbook Betting Exchange’ Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
11/12 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/12 – First run of the season
9/12 – Rated 134 or higher
9/12 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
8/12 – Irish bred winners
8/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/12 – Favourites unplaced
7/12 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/12 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/12 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
5/12 – Unplaced in their last race
1/12 – Winning Favourites
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A tough race to get going, but with the good record in the race for the Philip Hobbs yard, then their ROCK THE KASBAH (e/w) looks worth having on side. He was a good winner at the November meeting last season and is only 3lbs higher than that success. The Hobbs team have been amongst the winners this week too and it goes without saying that Dickie Johnson riding is a big plus. The Hobbs team also run Rolling Dylan, who can’t be ruled out on his best form either. We’ve also got the 2017 winner in the race – Cogry – who was also second in the contest 12 months ago. He likes to get on with things from the front and seems to have sorted the jumping issues he had during his early chase career. He should make a bold bid, but is 6lbs higher than when winning in 2017 and 4lbs higher than last year though. West Approach was a solid third in the contest last season too and being 3lbs lower he’s another to consider and should be in the mix, while Shantou Village was sixth in the event 12 months ago. Cobra De Mai, Bob Mahler and Royal Vacation are previous course winners at the track, so command respect too, but so is MINELLA ROCCO (e/w). Yes, this 9 year-old has rather lost his way since winning the 4m race at the Festival here in 2016 and then running second in the 2017 Gold Cup. But as a result, his mark (166 high) has dropped to 147 so he’s starting to look extremely well handicapped. Barry Geraghty rides and despite some dire runs last season, a summer break might have helped and the fact he’s still in training suggests Jonjo O’Neill hasn’t given up on him just yet.

 

2.35 – Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

7/10 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/10 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Carried 10-12 in weight
5/10 – Placed in their last race
5/10 – Irish bred winners
4/10 – Favourites placed
4/10 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Pearl Of The West (1st 5/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the Paul Nicholls yard, with wins in 2012 and 2013 so their Quel Destin, who was 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last season here, will be popular. He’s a proven course and distance winner too and blew away the cobwebs with a run on the flat earlier this month. However, it won’t be easy having to give 4lbs away to the Twiston-Davies runner – TORPILLO – who is actually rated 6lbs higher too. He was a smooth winner at Chepstow a few weeks ago on this return run too and has now won 4 of his 6 hurdles starts. Any further rain will be fine too. Of the rest, Soviet Pimpernel has caught the eye in winning his last two over in Ireland and certainly looks above average but with just one run over hurdles I’d be worried about his experience when taking on others that have run a lot more times over the sticks. Course winner, Nelson River can go well too, but any more rain might be a concern. Fanfan Du Seuill has the form to go well too and gets weight from the principles, but at a bigger price the John C Connell runner – CONSTRUCT (e/w) – might be worth a small interest too. The yard actually won this race 12 months ago too and this 4 year-old heads here having won his last two over hurdles. He’s another that’s had a recent run on the flat so will be fitter than most and he’s won over further than this 2m ½ f trip so that will help if conditions worsen and also with the stiff finish.


3.10 – Randox Health Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f199y ITV

Only 4 previous runnings
Foxtail Hill won the race in 2017 for trainer Neil Mulholland and was third in 2018
All four winners aged between 6-8 years-old (three aged 8)
All four winners returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
1 winning favourite
3 of the 4 winners carried 11-1 or more
Modus (4/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some old favourites on show here, with the likes of Gino Trail and Duke Of Navan – both are certainly no back-numbers here either, with GINO TRAIL (e/w) looking the most interesting with Richard Johnson riding and sporting the first-time visor. Master Work was a smooth winner at Fontwell three weeks ago but is up 9lbs here in this better race so more will be needed. McGroarty will catch the eye of punters too with a string of ones next to his name. He’s won his last three in the style of an improver and another 4lb rise for the latest of those looks fair. This will be his first run at Cheltenham though. KNOCKNANUSS, who was 5th in the Arkle last season, did well for the Gary Moore yard last term at the start of the campaign – winning twice – but lost his way a bit in better races thereafter. He’s back in calmer waters here and has shown he can go well fresh in the past too, so gets the nod. Saint Calvados is on a bit of a recovery mission too after not firing last season, but he’s had a wind operation over the summer and if that’s done the trick then he’d be very dangerous in this sort of grade. The final one to mention is Brelan D’As, who was third in the Grand Annual here last season. Trainer Paul Nicholls, jockey Barry Geraghty and owner JP McManus all teamed-up to land this prize last season and try again. He went well off a break last season and is sure to be well-tuned up for this. He’s only got 10-9 in weight and acts on all ground. My only niggle would be that he’s run at Cheltenham now four times and is yet to win – with only one top three finish to his name.


3.45 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/10 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
7/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before (3 winners)
7/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/10 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Irish Bred
2/10 – Mare winners
2/10 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/10 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/10 – Winning favourites
The Mighty Don (1st 16/1) won this race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tough race to unravel and looking at the betting it’s actually hard to rule out any of the 13 runners! Course winner Tobefair will have to carry topweight of 11-12 so that won’t be easy, but has been well-supported in the betting all week so can be expected to be well tuned up for this. We’ve also got last year’s second in the race – Sykes – but he’s also got a fair amount of weight (11-10) and is also rated 8lbs higher than last year. Sunset Showdown, comes here in great form and should go well, while Dickie Johnson riding Aye Right for the Harriot Graham team catches the eye. However, it might be worth taking a chance on TWO TAFFS (e/w), who returns from a 728-day break and last year’s fourth in the race – THECLOCKISTICKING (e/w). The former has clearly had some issues having been off for so long, but had a wind op since and we can expect the yard not to be risking him in a race like this unless they were 100% happy with him. He was third in the Close Brothers Chase at the 2017 Festival, so the track is fine, plus he’s gone well fresh in the past too and returns on what looks a fair mark. Theclockisticking was fourth in the race last year but gets in here rated 6lbs lower. He followed that up last season with a 6th (of 24) in the Pertemps Final of this race at the Festival and he’s another that’s had a wind op since his last run.

 

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