Saturday TV Trends and Tips: 11th May 2019

Lingfield, Haydock and Ascot horse racing tips and trends

We’ve already had two of the five English Classics, but this weekend with Epsom Oaks and Derby Trials Day at Lingfield Park we’ll get a chance to take in a few more clues ahead of the next batch of Classics in June.

The Ralph Beckett team will be aiming to win their third Lingfield Oaks Trial in the last seven years, while the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp will be looking to enhance their excellent record in the Lingfield Derby Trial – they’ve won 4 of the last 11 renewals.

As well as three races at Lingfield, the ITV cameras are also taking in Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (the old Swinton Hurdle) at Haydock Park , while they will also be showing four races at Ascot, that including the ultra-competitive Victoria Cup.


Saturday 11th May 2019


Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


3.10 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
16/16 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
16/16 – Carried 11-5 or less
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/16 – Irish bred
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
8/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/16 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 6 runnings)
3/16 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 13 winners returned 16/1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 16 winners aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old then even though this trend is a plus for most it still rules out a few big names – including the Paul Nicholls-trained Christopher Wood, who is 4 and the Evan Williams runner John Constable, who is 8. However, with the Evan Williams yard having a fantastic record in this race – winning it 4 times in the last 6 years – JOHN CONSTABLE (e/w) is still worth having onside. The yard had a few entries in the week but their 2017 winner of this race is their sole runner this time. The stable were in the winners’ enclosure in the week so their horses are going well and this 8 year-old is actually 2lbs lower than when he won this in 2017. Yes, this season his form has been poor, but a recent wind operation would have hopefully sorted some issues out and he’s gone well off a break in the past. Another yard that have done well in this race is Nicky Henderson, with wins in 2010 and 2011 – they run two – Mister Fisher and Jenkins and of the two the proven CD winner – Mister Fisher – with Nico de Boinville riding, looks their better chance. Another key trend is that ALL of the last 16 winners carried 11-5 or less in weight – this knocks out the top four on the card – Le Patriote,Mister Fisher, Jenkins and Leoncavallo. 10 of the last 16 winners also only carried 10-8 or less – but we’ve only two that fit the bill here – Kingofthecotswolds and Thistimenextyear. However, the other one to note here is the Tom George runner – CHAMPAGNE CITY (e/w). The yard boast an impressive 33% record (5 from 15) with their hurdlers at the track. This 6 year-old has been running well all year without getting his head in front. He was just chinned on the line at Kelso last time out but the longer straight at Haydock will suit better and he’s had a month and a bit to get over that. Of the rest, Fiesole, Arthington and the Skelton-trained Sofia’s Rock are others that will be popular, while at a bigger price the John Quinn runner – PROJECT BLUEBOOK (e/w) – is starting to look well-handicapped, especially with Jonjo O’Neill Jnr claiming 3lbs and he should be a lot fitter for a recent run at Aintree after a 200+ day break.


Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

2.15 – Les Ambassadeurs Casino Handicap Cl3 1m4f ITV4

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/8 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Rated between 86 and 91
7/8 – Won 2 or 3 times before
7/8 – Carried 9-4 or less
6/8 – Aged 4 years-old
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/8 – Won on reappearance run (4 of last 5)
4/8 – Drawn in stalls 5-8 (inc)
4/8 – Horses from stall 11 placed (1 winner)
4/8 – Had raced at Ascot before
3/8 – Winning favourites (3 of last 4)
2/8 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/8 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Queen’s Sextant looks a fair sort on what we’ve seen to date and the Stoute yard are going well at the moment too – all of the last 8 winners were aged 4 or 5, so he also gets a plus here. That age trend suggests Boite and Eddystone Rock will have it to do. Now Children will be better for a recent fourth at Doncaster and stayed on well over that 1m2f trip to think this longer trip will help. However, the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin look to have a good chance here with SETTING SAIL. This 4 year-old won easily last time out at Wolverhampton and despite this being a step up in grade did it very well. He’s also won on the turf and with a bit of cut so the softer ground is fine – there should be more to come with this only being his fourth career start. William Buick, who rode last time, remains in the saddle.


2.50 – Carey Group Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

11/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Had won 3 or more times before
8/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/13 – Had raced at Ascot before
7/13 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
7/13 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/13 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by John Gosden
3/13 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/13 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 10 winners ALL came from stalls 5 or lower
Barsnati (10/11 fav) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four runners here, but it’s hard to see either Salouen or BARSANTI not landing the spoils. The former is the clear top-rated in the field (117) but is a hard horse to win with. He’s currently on a run of 15 races without a win and was also beaten by Barsanti in this race 12 months ago – I think it will be more of the same again here. This Roger Varian runner won this on his return run last season so the 225-day break isn’t a problem and has won first time out twice in the last three years. He’s the only proven distance winner in the field and the only past winner here at Ascot too. What About Carlo, who will love it if there is more rain, and Pilansberg make up the four, but both have a bit to find on the ratings.


3.25 – St James’s Wealth Management British EBF Premier Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

13/13 – Failed to win last time out
13/13 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
11/13 – Had won over a mile before
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/13 – Aged 5 or younger
9/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Carried 9-0 or more
9/13 – Aged 4 years-old
8/13 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
7/13 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
7/13 – Rated between 82-87
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 13 winners failing to win last time out then this would be a negative for recent winners – Daddies Girl and Bella Ragazza. 4 year-olds also have the better record so I’m going to discount the two 3 year-olds – Model Guest and Aim Power. Adorable and Red Starlight will both be popular but do have a bit to prove based on their last runs so it might pay to take a chance on LABREGA and CONTRIVE. The former will he better for a recent third at Chelmsford but the return to the turf will suit and has acted well in soft ground in the past too. Contrive will be ridden by William Buick and he’s got a decent 20%+ strike-rate at the track when riding 4+ year-olds. A recent run at Kempton would have bought her on and will also find this drop back from Listed company into a handicap easier. She’s gone well with cut too.


4.00 – Totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

15/16 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Had won no more than 3 times
12/16 – Carried 8-10 or less
12/16 – Had won over 7f before
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Had run at Ascot before (4 winners)
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 10 years
2/16 – Trained by David Elsworth (2 of last 4)
The last 6 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Ripp Orf (20/1) won the race 12 months ago

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some interesting trends here. 15 of the last 16 winners had run in the last 5 weeks, while 13 of the last 16 were aged 5 or younger. With 12 of the last 16 winners carrying 8-10 or less too then that’s another decent stat, plus the last six winners all came from a double-figure draw. All these stats are a plus for last year’s winner too – RIPP ORF (e/w). This 5 year-old is rated 12lbs higher than last year’s win, but he’s improved since then too. He loves the track – his form here reads 1-3-1-2 and will be a lot sharper for two recent runs. He won from stall 13 last year too and coming from 16 this year then he’s virtually in the same place and the Elsworth yard have won 2 of the last 4 runnings. Of the rest Via Serendipity was fifth in the race last year, but is 8lb higher this time. Blue Mist is a course winner that should have more to come – the talented Jason Watson has been booked to ride and he can go well from stall 23. Kynren is a horse that always seems to go well in these big-field handicaps too and ran well when second on his return run. Remarkable, Caradoc, Kimifive and Cape Byron can’t be ruled out either but the other of interest is the low-weighted PRESIDENTIAL (e/w). This Roger Fell runner was a decent third last time out at Newmarket and that showed he’s continued to train on. Last season he went from being rated 63 to 90 and he might not have finished progressing yet. He goes on all ground too and draw 25 means he can get a good pitch on the rails. With just 8-4, he’s got a low weight and that will also help in conditions.

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.55 – Betfred Mobile Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than once before
12/15 – Had no more than 3 career runs
12/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/15 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
8/15 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
7/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Having first run of the season
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (3) last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Winners from stall 5
4/15 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
3/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the William Haggas and John Gosden yards over the years and both are represented again this year. Haggas has Frankellina, who holds an Oaks entry. We last saw this Frankel filly winning on debut at Yarmouth over a mile but will need to prove herself over this longer trip. She’s clearly held in high regard and can go well but only just scraped home by a head on debut. So, preference is for the Gosden runner – ANAPURNA – with Frankie Dettori riding. This 3 year-old was an easy winner on the AW here over 1m2f so the step up to 1m3f will be fine and is another Frankel filly in the race. With a tad more experience that’s taken to give her an advantage and is another that holds an entry for Epsom later this month. Gosden also has Elisheba in the race and she can’t be ruled out running well too, but with Frankie preferring Anapurna then we should take the hint. Of the rest. Tauteke, from the Roger Varian yard, is another that holds an Oaks entry and is bred to be much better over this trip – she can go well too. King Power is yet another Frankel filly in the race that stayed on well over 1m2f at Sandown last time to also suggest she can improve over this longer trip.


2.30 – Betfred Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

16/16 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (no winners)
12/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
11/16 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
11/16 – Favourites placed
8/16 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
The last winner to go on and win the Epsom Derby was High Rise 1998

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several promising sorts on show here, including the Ed Walker-trained Cap Francais. However, it will be a bit of a shock if this race isn’t going to Aidan O’Brien again. This 3 year-old will be ridden by Ryan Moore, who’s teamed up with O’Brien to win this race twice since 2013. This year their sole representative is ANTHONY VAN DYCK. This 118-rated 3 year-old has already had seven career runs and had landed Group Two and Three races too, not to mention running third in the Group One Dewhurst last season. Yes, the step up in trip from 1m to 1m 3 1/2f here is a slight unknown as breeding does give a contrasting view on that. Connections clearly feel he needs the longer trip though and dropping back into Listed company will make him hard to beat. He’s around 12/1 for the Derby – but an easy win here should see that price plummet. Of the rest, Three Comets, Pablo Escobarr and Eagles By Day are others that have shown good form to date but would need more to cope with the proven Group winner of O’Briens.


3.40 – Betfred “Supports Jack Berry House” Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

13/13 – Aged 5 or younger
12/13 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
11/13 – Won between 1-4 times before
10/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/13 – Had won over 7f before
8/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/13 – Irish-bred
6/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Non UK-trained winners
5/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/13 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
2/13 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 10 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 13 winners aged 5 or younger then only the 6 year-old Dancing Star falls down. 12 of the last 13 winners were drawn in stalls 3-8 – so if this to be repeated then Dancing Star, Betty F, Perfection, Shepherd Market, Devant and Eirene are the ones to focus on. Ryan Moore has teamed-up with William Haggas to ride the improving Pretty Baby and the ratings (106) suggest she’s the one to beat too. Frankie rides Betty F for Jeremy Noseda but will need to improve on her return run 6th when looking a big flat. The O’Meara camp have had a good week at Chester and the fact they send PERFECTION south catches the eye. This former John Gosden filly has won two of her last three and should not be far away – certainly one for the shortlist – as the O’Meara yard boast an impressive 80% strike-rate (4 from 5) with their 4+ year-olds at the track. The French raider – DEVANT – however, is another of interest making the trip over. She’s won a Group Three in the past and handles soft ground too. A recent fourth would have brought her on and being the only 3 year-old in the race gets a handy weight allowance from the others – that could prove the difference.




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